The Japanese 2000 Guineas
The Japanese 2000 Guineas
1 6-1 LENNYSTC- Infinite Bling(KY) scratch homebred 3yo colt
Medaglia D’Oro x Kris S. x Danehill
7-6-1-0 999K career earnings
Lennystc (14.7%- 35%) seems to have a possible superstar in the barn. IN seven starts this guy has six wins and a second. That is the model of consistency that puts him at the top of the list this week. He has yet to run ten furlongs, but handled 9.5f easily enough, so the distance is not an issue this week. The breeding suggests that he should get even better as the races get longer and he matures. Lennystc has been judicious with his starts by giving him plenty of time off which sets him up for along career and whole but more wins long into the futures. This guy will not be close early as he is one of the deep closers and could be ten back early as there is some early speed in this race. He can lie a bit closer, but probably not this week.
Best speed-102
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- deep closer
Predicted finish- 1st, I can’t find a fault with this guy.
2 10-1CHAMPIONS0- Blind Harry(TX) homebred 3yo colt
A.P. Valentine x H-rated Danzing Daisy (Danzig x Seattle Slew)
6-5-0-0 119K career earnings
Campions0 (25.9%- 51.7%) gets of the plane this week with a Texas bred…that is correct, a Texas bred. His first start was back in April of 2009 was on the dirt and was an uninspiring sixth with a speed figure of 50. In his next start he was moved to the turf, and has not lost since with five wins in a row. The other really interesting point is that this guy has managed to run career best speed figures in every race but one. The 104 speed figure he ran in his last race is tops in this group and sets him up for a big day. He has yet to run in a graded stakes race, but did win his only stakes start last out. His sire, A.P. Valentine, can be had as I write this for 83 points and is throwing a better than 4% stakes winners with the advantage of being a Texas bred. That is a phenomenal value right there. He has shown himself to be pretty versatile in that he can sit pretty close of come from the clouds. I think the trip that would suit him best this week would be a close trip where he might get a jump on the deep closers. Not sure if he can win but he will have a say in the final outcome.
Best speed-104
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- mid-pack closer, but can come from the clouds
Predicted finish- 2nd, if he doesn’t bounce he has a big shot.
3 13-1 SANSEBAS- Jakemate(IRE) homebred 3yo colt
Invincible Spirit x E-rated Remember Petresurde (Fusaichi Pegasus x Sadler’s Wells)
5-3-1-0 130K career earnings
Sansebas (14.9%- 43.6%) brings in a nice son of Invincible Spirit that is one of the least experience runners of this field in only his sixth start. He made his debut in October of last year and started a three race winning streak to start his career. His first loss came in the GIII Jellyton where he was closing, but not enough finishing fifth beaten by five. His last outing was a nice second place in a listed stakes race, but a drop in distance to a mile. The fact that this guy is yet to run over 805 furlongs is a bit of a concern as the jump up to ten furlongs is huge, especially for a lightly raced three year old this early in the year. His pedigree suggests that he will be able to get the distance, but maybe not quite yet. He is another of the deep closers and might find himself way back early. Not sure if he has the turn of foot to get up from way back at this point in his career.
Best speed- 98
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deep closer
Predicted finish- Out of top five, might be a bit too much too soon
4 6-1 ANDROS- Zapingo(IRE) homebred 3yo colt
Galileo x F-rated Burlada (Seeking the Gold x Storm Cat)
11-3-4-0 526K career earnings
Andros (12.9%- 39.2%) has flow in this week with one of the more grizzled veterans in the field making his twelfth career start. This guy made his career debut way back in February of last year, and has been racing steadily since. This will be his sixth graded stakes start, but has only one win to date. His speed figures are showing a nice steady progression upwards with him running a career best 100 last race out. His last two graded starts he has shown the same problem that I think we will see again this week. He simply was way too far out of it early. Fourteen lengths back will put him the same spot this week, about a mid pack closing finish. He needs to be a lot closer this week, but I think we see a repeat. I am not sure this guy is really going to want ten furlongs. His sire has plenty of stamina, but that over Mr. Prospector and Storm Cat is a pretty stamina light bottom. This is a quality horse that will win lots of races, but just not this week.
Best speed- 100
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deep closer, could be 15+ back early
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, has the talent to do much better though.
5 11-1 ROBERTO- Authombo(IRE) homebred 3yo colt
Authorized x H-rated Seambo (Kingmambo x Seattle Slew)
12-4-3-3 712K career earnings
Roberto (19.2%- 48.3%) has another of the early three year olds making his thirteenth career start with seven graded tries. He has three graded wins with the last one in the GIII Philanthropist. His first race was a try on dirt and then moved to the turf for the next nine races, but took one more shot on the dirt two back in January which did not end well. Although he has the pedigree to run all day this will be his first try at over a mile and that might be a problem. As I discussed earlier the jump from a mile to ten furlongs is a giant step up in distance and most horses do not do well in that first try at ten. His speed figures have kind of stalled at around 96, and unless the added distance really moves him up I don’t think he has quite the class of the top horses this week. He certainly might move up, but that is a pretty big assumption to make. He has traditionally been a deep closer, but could be a bit closer if his miler speed plays at ten furlongs.
Best speed- 96
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Closer, but could be a bit closer than usual
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, needs to move up with the added distance to have a shot.
6 14-1 REIGART- High Gold N Bold(IRE) homebred 3yo colt
High Chaparral x F-rated Gold N Light (North Light x Seeking the Gold)
9-3-0-1 110K career earnings
Reigart (13.7%- 36.8) shows up with a nice son of High Chaparral this week. One of the few colts that has been at least ten furlongs, and he has a nice 100 speed figure going 10-5 furlongs. He should show speed as there simply is not much early speed this week at all. In his career he has had no problem getting to the lead, but closing the deal has been an issue with some severe backing up late. This problem has been really bad in his graded races. In his last race in the GIII Palms he had the lead at the third call but backed up to fifth getting beat by three. This horse looks like he might need more distance where his speed will be a little more potent, and will allow him to get away from the rest of the field. His pedigree says he can run all day and his running style looks like e might just love two miles at some point down the road. He has only wired one field in his career and that was a NW2L allowance race back in October of last year. I just don’t think he has the speed at this distance to wire a deep field like this.
Best speed- 100
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- on the engine, gunning for the lead
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, can get the lead, but don’t think he can keep it.
7 12-1 COQUI- Kowtown Lou(FL) scratch homebred 3yo colt
Cowtown Cat x Miswaki x Capote
6-2-1-2 95K career earnings
Cmd2001 (7.6%- 27.6%) brings a Florida bred across to Japan this week. This guy is in a very tough spot however. He tried a graded run back in January against older horses that as you can imagine did not end well. He did win his last race which was a listed stakes race, but at 7.5 furlongs. In fact that is the furthest that this one has ever ran. It is a very tall order to make the jump in distance that this guy is being asked to do. It is hard to tell pedigree wise as Cowtown Cat is a second year sire and not much data is available. He has some early speed and has generally been a stalker, but might be out front since he is bringing sprinter speed to a ten furlong race. His last race was probably his best race, but that was against a short field of five and he is in much tougher this week. I would be pretty shocked to see this one in the top half of the field.
Best speed- 98
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Stalker, but could be out front
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, big jump in class and distance will be too much.
8 12-1 STORMBOOT2- Wall Street Ghost(KY) homebred 3yo colt
After Market x F-rated tropical spirits (Ghostzapper x Seeking the Gold)
10-2-3-2 160K career earnings
Stormboot2 (29.2%- 62.7%) brings a nice son of After Market to the land of the rising sun. This guy will be making his fourth career graded start this week with so so results in his past attempts. This will be his first race back since a very nice third place effort in the Equinics at 9.5 furlongs. He was moving on the leaders at the end but ran out of race track. He run ten furlongs before, but only posted a 91 speed figure. His last out he did run a career best 99, but needs to move forward off of that effort to have a shot since I think the winner will have around a 105ish this week. In the past he has been a deep closer and I would expect to see the same this week, but he is not the deepest of the deep. He should be back about eight or nine, and should be passing some tired horses late, but I just do not think he is the best of the closers.
Best speed- 99
Best speed at distance- 91
Race trip- Deep closer
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, has shown that he can run with this group though
9 7-1 SUPER14- Latitude(KY) scratch homebred 3yo colt
Henrythenavigator x Nureyev x Riverman
7-2-2-2 138K career earnings
Super14 (14%- 40.7%) brings in the speed of the speed this week. This guy has real speed that will take him to the front, but his ability to hold the lead he will have is in question. Two back in a listed stakes race at nine furlongs he got away by nine, but was run down and finished third two back. He has yet to wire a filed in anything other than MSW or a conditioned allowance, and that is a big red flag. There is zero doubt where he will be early and it would not be shocking to see him out front by ten this week. Some horses can carry their speed better as the races get longer, and that might be the case for this guy, but we have no way of knowing until the race. His pedigree suggests that he will love the added distance this week and perhaps even longer in the future. Henrythenavigator is still a young sire and in only his second crop he already looks like he is going to produce turf runners that can run all day. I think that the added distance is going let this guy carry his speed a little better, but he probably still is going to get run down, but he has a shot.
Best speed- 102
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- On the engine out front all alone
Predicted finish- 4th, will be the winner if he can carry his speed better at 10f
10 7-1 SDMF1- South of Sanity(KY) homebred 3yo colt
Dynaformer x E-rated Evelangelist (A.P. Indy x Kingmambo)
11-3-4-2 208K career earnings
SDMF1 (16.5%- 43.6%) brings in a guy that just can not seem to win a race no matter how big he runs as of late. His last race was way back in June of last year, but has run some big races since then, but just not quite enough to win. His last race in a listed stakes at nine furlongs he fired a career best 104 speed figure, but even that was not enough. A repeat of the race puts him right in the mix this week. He has run in five graded races with a second place finish as his best effort so far. This is a horse that has shown some speed in the past, but I don’t think he can get the lead from Latitude, and might be pretty far back early. That is ok though, as he has shown the ability to stalk, and that will be the trip he most likely gets this week. The one problem that he might have this week is that fact that this will be his first start at anything over a mile and that is tough to do. His pedigree is impeccable and has nothing that would show any distance limitations, but that jump from eight to ten furlongs is asking a whole lot.
Best speed- 104
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- up front stalking
Predicted finish- 3rd, if he likes the 10f he could win
11 12-1 DESIMSTER- Navigation System(KY) homebred 3yo colt
Henrythenavigator x E-rated Tlaxcala (Dynaformer x Storm Cat)
4-2-1-0 84K career earnings
Desimster (14.1%- 35.6%) brings in a very green colt making only his fifth career start. Another son of Henrythenavigator looks to stamp himself as the real deal, but is certainly up against it this week. There is little doubt as to the talent that this guy has shown or the promise he holds, but would have to buck some difficult trends to win this week. This is another colt that is jumping from eight furlongs to ten. Will be making only his second graded start in only his fifth total start, and is a deep closer in a field of very good more experienced closers. He certainly has a chance if he can build off of his career best 98 speed figure, and he digs the extra two furlongs. He has run career best speed figures in every race so far, so he certainly can improve off of the 98, but needs a pretty big jump to get be in the hunt for a win. In his last race in the GII Golden Rose he was closing at the end, but was not making up much ground finishing a well beaten fifth. The question with that effort is if the jump in class to the graded stakes was the reason, or does he need more race track? I think it is the latter, but I have been wrong many times before. Like this horse, but not this week.
Best speed- 98
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deep closer, could be midpack
Predicted finish- 5th, not quite ready for this, but love his future.
12 9-1 HOLLANDIA3- Witherden(IRE) homebred 3yo colt
High Chaparral x H-rated Zur Spook (Sadler’s Wells x Cozzene)
11-2-3-3 164K career earnings
Hollandia3 (16-9%- 46.3%) ships in from the desert this week with a nice son of High Chaparral. This guy has a nice edge over some others in this race as he has ran 9.5 furlongs back in December of last year where he posted a career best speed figure of 97. He has since ran another 97 in his last race, but that was at a mile. This will be his fourth try at a graded stakes after posting one win back in October in the GIII Fall Stakes. His run in the Breeder’s Bowl was a disaster, but might be a throw away race since it was on only three weeks rest, which is far too short for a two year old. His typical trip is somewhere mid pack about five back and that should be about where he will be this week too. He might be further back, but should be midpack. His pedigree while horribly inbred is suited to long on the turf and should enjoy ten furlongs. This is a very nice colt, but might be just a touch below the best this week.
Best speed- 97
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Midpack closer
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, not quite enough for this group
13 17-1 DB- God’s Angry(AUS) homebred 3yo colt
God’s Own x E-rated Street Vengeance (Street Cry x Touching Wood)
9-3-0-3 81K career earnings
Db (17.5%- 46.2%) has the second longest shot on the board this week. Unlike a lot of bombs in graded stakes this guy actually has a shot to do something. His last race was a monster performance and could be the key to this week. God’s Own is a sprint sire for the most part with over 60% of his offspring’s earnings was made sprinting in this first three years as a sire. The surprise with this one however is the nice jump in speed figures from a mile to nine furlongs. His last race in a NW3x allowance at nine furlongs was dominant, crushing the field by five and running a career best 98 speed figure. That is not at the top of the list this week, but it shows enough promise that a move forward puts him in the hunt. His only graded attempt was back in January in the GII Fainting Goat at one mile with him finishing a decent third. He was never threatening, but it was a nice effort none the less. He has shown some early pop and has wired the field in two of his three wins, but I am not sure if he can get the lead this week. He has shown the ability to sit just off the pace and win too, and that might be the right move for his this week. The odds maker doesn’t like this one too much, but I think he has a legitimate shot.
Best speed- 98
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- On the lead, or just off
Predicted finish- Out of the top 5 but has a shot and needs to be included in all exotics.
14 18-1 OOSTENDE3- Major Bagstock(IRE) homebred 3yo colt
Shamardal x G-rated Quick Response (Forty Niner x El Gran Senor)
10-4-2-2 112K career earnings
Oostende3 (15.7%- 45.2%) brings in the longest shot on the board, but another longshot that is certainly not without some hope. This is a son of the champion Shamardal who was undefeated on the turf in six tries and had a great career cut short by an injury. This guy’s early career was above average, but nothing special, but in his last two races he seems to be figuring it out in a big way. Two back he ran a career best 96 at 8.5 furlongs and won easily in a NW4L allowance race. In his last race he finished a nice third in his first stakes try at nine furlongs. His pedigree should allow him to get ten furlongs, but that is not a given. I would expect to see this one sitting midpack about six off the lead. He can close from the clouds, but that would certainly not be in his best interests this week. The closer he can be the better off he will be. He simply does not have the talent of the best deep closers this week and his only hope is to get first jump on them from a more forwardly placed position. Not sure he can win this week, but a top five finish would not be out of the question. I sure would like to have seen another stakes race or a GIII before a GI try, but here he is.
Best speed- 96
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Midpack closer, needs to be as close as possible
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, but has a shot if he can continue to improve.