Bay May Turn Brown: War Ministry Favored in Sprint

Bay Horse Stakes
Grade III
Seven furlongs
Fast Dirt
$150,000
All horses, 3 years old

So 3-year-old sprinters must be as ignored in the sim as they are in real life – this graded tilt only mustered seven entries.  Too many are chasing that derby dream, I guess.  You need to think like the owners of D’ Funnybone: grab the Hutcheson, grab the Swale, and stamp yourself the best sprinter of your generation.  Let your horse do what it does best.

In any case, what does it take to make an early-season sophomore sprint contender?  Win first out, it looks like.  All but one of these seven did so.  There is also a strong contingent of Aussie-breds, though American shuttle sires fathered most.  Let’s run down the septet:

WAR MINISTRY(KY), at the far post, rates as the 2-1 favorite.  His 9-for-11 record has raised him to 17th in the sophomore sprint rankings.  He’s the one out flying on the lead, and usually stays that way.  Two races back he was just nipped in the Equinics Long May It Wave by a horse coming from 18th (and the show horse ran in from 20th), so you have to be impressed that he withstood a withering pace and nearly won.  He was back in the winners circle in the Wild My Flag last out, and the pair of 101s from the last two are impressive.  The War Pass colt is worthy at short odds.

The horse he beat in the Wild My Flag, INSTRUCTIONS(AUS), lines up in the 4th position at 3-1.  The Dell Futurity (G1) winner started his season sharply with a stakes win, but he was off the board in the Grade 2 Saint Vincent.  It seemed as if he was not ready to move forward from his solid juvenile campaign, but the strong showing last out in defeat was a reaffirmation.  The favorite will take some catching, but INSTRUCTIONS(AUS)’s chances to do so should not be entirely discounted.

The other favored colt is BERZERK MYSTERY(AUS), a deep closing sort who has shown more success as a sprinter than longer races.  Despite a decent show finish in New York’s Sparkling Wine last year at a mile, he wound up the trailer in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile after that.  Returned to sprints, he has a pair of big-number victories for 2010, including last out in the Bust Impregnating (say what?).   This is one ornery critter in the lane, and if it is his day he will take down the favorite and the rest.

PRIVATE FLEET(JPN) rates an interesting upset chance from post 3.  The colt has one of the shortest resumes of these, only seven races, and until late December could only count his May debut in the win column.  Since then he has won three straight at seven or seven-plus furlongs, displaying a powerful closing kick.  The billy3shoe charge is 8-1, but he could be right among the top finishers.

SMOKIN’ TARIAT(KY), by contrast, has a 12-race record, but his four wins are all at 6 furlongs.  A strong 99 from last November gives hope amongst this bunch, but his current season races have not been as strong as many here.  The Smoke Glacken product shows versatility in running style, so he should be able to react to any pace scenario.  Overall, though, at 5-1, he’s not a value play.

REFINED WELLS TED(KY), the longest shot at 12-1, has shown improvement since concentrating on a frontrunning strategy.  His last two races are his first to post a speed out of the 70s, and trainer crow showed confidence in placing him in open allowances when still N2L eligible.  Coming from post 6, this Saarlander may use his speed to keep the favorite wide, which may benefit the others if not him.

LITTLE LIAR(AUS), the rail horse, has not won since nabbing a July 2009 stakes.  The Lion Heart son took a step in the right direction speed-wise March 6th, with a 93.  He’s shown some weakness in the late stages, which should concern those considering backing him at 9-1.  There is talent here, but he looks like he is in tough against the best of these.