Clay Daisy Special could be anyone’s race
PP 1) Silk Spectre(ENG) Sired by Medicean(GB), Trained by osogood. Silk Spectre(ENG) takes the gate for career start number ten in this race. After dominating at allowance level, she makes her second run agains stakes competition here, seeking her first win at this level. Over all in her first ten, she’s gone 6-0-2-1-0, with a top speed of 92.0 earned in her last start. That race was a stakes effort at a mile in Ottawa, where she struggled a bit, finishing third in a short field. After beginning her career with a pair of dirt wins, she switched to turf after a somewhat disappointing third start, and has not finished outside the trifecta since, though the majority of those starts have been in short fields. Though her top speed came at a mile, she’s yet to lose in a turf sprint, and her speeds have been steadily improving ever since she started racing turf. She also won her only off track start, without a great loss of speed doing it. She prefers to start at the head of the midpack, and that should put her in a stalkers role here. Her speed average is a few points below the competition here, but it has improved with every start. If she could step it up again here, she could be right in the mix late.
PP 2) Principal Dancer(ENG) Sired by Pivotal(GB), Trained by cthstable. Principal Dancer(ENG) makes her fifth career start here, and her first at stakes level. She brings in a 2-1-0-0-1 record from her first four, with a top speed of 91.1 in her last start. That run was an A3L on a tough Florida track, where she managed to close to fifth in a field of eleven before running out of ground. All four career starts have been on turf, and she manged to crack the top 300 in the division in just four starts. While a longer race may seem to more suit her powerful closing style, she has performed better in her sprint starts, and she is undefeated at this distance. She has no off track experience, but her sire Pivotal has about an even record between his fast and off track racers, though they do seem to lose a bit in speed. She is a pure closer, and her close has been the picture of consistancy. She is used to making up good sized chunks of ground in the second half. The field should give her a decent setup here, but she hasn’t put up the speed numbers that the rest of this field has, even though she has stayed comeptitive. She has been improving with each start, but the off track isn’t like to help here. Look for her to be driving late here, but the spongy surface and how she reacts to it is likely to be the story here.
PP 3) Rather Be Sailing(JPN) Sired by Fuji Kiseki(JPN), Trained by adrain4. Rather Be Sailing(JPN) steps to the track for career start number six here. This will be her first try against stakes competition. She boasts a 3-1-0-0-0 record in her first five, capping her speed numbers with a 92.6 in her last start. That run was a open allowance at this distance right here in Virginia where she chased down the leaders late to snatch out a quarter length victory in a nine horse field. All five career races have been on turf and she looks to be more than comfortable on the surface. In somewhat of a departure from the typical progression she has been slowly decreasing her distance, rather than increasing it, and when she dropped back to seven furlongs or less, her speeds took a big jump and she has two wins and a place in three starts of seven furlongs or less. She has no prior off track experience, and her sire hasn’t had enough off track starts to lend a gauge to her possible performance. She runs as a midpack to deep closer, and outside her start at a mile, her close is looked quite good. Just under five lengths at the half looks to be her sweet spot. She shouldn’t have a problem maintaining that distance in this field, and the big question mark will be the off track. If she overcomes that obstacle, she should be right in contention as they head for the wire.
PP 4) Confectionary(AUS) Sired by Red Ransom, Trained by roar99. Confectionary(AUS) is the most experienced filly in the field, making her eleventh career start. She has four stakes runs, including starts in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Filly and the Darley, and has a win at open stakes level on dirt. She has a 4-2-3-1-0 record in her first ten, with a best speed of 95.0 earned two starts back. Her last run was in an open stakes at a mile in Montana, where she settled for second in a hard fought battle in a field of six. This will be her first return to turf since her first two starts of her two year old season, and it’s going to be interesting to see if the excellent speed numbers she has been putting up on dirt translate over to the softer surface. She seems equally comfortable at anywhere from six to eight and a half furlongs. She has a good record in this distance range, but she seems to like something a shade longer. In ten career starts, she’s never faced an off track situation. Her sire Red Ransom has a higher winning percentage among his offspring on and off track, but speeds look to take a fairly good sized drop. She likes to run as a midpack to deep closer, and while she’s not been totally consistent, her close has been more on than off. While the oddsmakers like her in this one, I think the shorter distance and the switch to a much softer surface than she has been used to will all conspire against her here. In a field where the high 80s could she a filly trailing the field home, I think this may be a bad spot for a return to turf.
PP 5) Kill The Messenger(IRE) Sired by Sharmandal, Trained by glengorm. Kill The Messenger takes trip number eight in this race. She has a pair of stakes runs, and has one stakes win under her saddle. She strung together five in a row while putting together a 5-1-0-1-0 record in her first seven, with a top speed figure of 94.0 coming two starts back. Her last was an open stakes at a mile where she missed a step early and never recovered, finishing fourth in a field of five. All seven starts have been on turf, and she displayed an excellent affinity for the surface. Her last outing showed she prefers a shorter distance, as well. Off track could be a plus for her, too. Her career debut was on a yielding track, and she put up an excellent speed figure for a two year old at any point in the year, let alone a debut. That fits in with her sire’s stats who big up about 2 points in average winning speeds when racing off track. She is a fast starter and foru of five career wins have come gate to wire. With this field compostion, she shouldn’t have any trouble gaining a clear lead early, and with the off track that could be all she needs to bring home a win in this one