The Winter Derby
Winter Derby
GIII 10f on a fast turf course
$150,000
1 9/2 Hewett- Conglomerate King(KY) scratch homebred 5yo horse
North Light x Sadler’s Wells x Northern Dancer
28-5-6-3 164K career earnings
Hewett (14.6%- 37.9%) sends out this veteran 5yo that is on very good form at the moment. His last race he fired a career best 110 but only managed a third place finish in a conditioned allowance race. He has tried graded company before back in September of 2009 and he finished a rather even sixth place. I do not think this guy wants any part of ten furlongs and he could be backing up severely down the stretch. He has yet to break 103 at any distance longer than 8.5f, and I think that pattern holds up this week. This guy is a miler and that is where he can do his best running. There is not a lot of speed in this race and expect to see him on the engine early and could get away for a bit, but unless he can slow it down to a crawl they will eat him up at the top of the stretch.
Best speed-110
Best speed at distance- 97
Race trip- Should show early speed, on the lead I would suspect
Predicted finish- Out of the top 5, not his best distance
2 7-1Icechaser- VT Overeasy(ENG) homebred 4yo colt
Echo of Light x d-rated Buist’s Return (Forty Niner x Sadler’s Wells)
21-9-4-2 195K career earnings
Icechaser (18%- 46%) Brings his nice four year old this week of a whole bunch of wins. This horse has been a winning machine in the past. He has won his last seven races in the last ten. So there is no doubt that his form is good, and he has a shot, but most of those wins have come against much softer company that he will see this week. The thing he does have going for him is this is his best distance and if he fires his best speed figure of 109 puts him right in the top. The one thing I do not like is the short fields he has been running against. In his last ten races on two have been against fields that have had more than six horses. This is a very nice horse, but he has been protected and that will not help this week. This guy will be nowhere near the front early and could be ten back. If he runs his race, I would expect his to be flying at the end. Horses rarely win their first try with graded company and I don’t see this guy pulling it off either.
Best speed-109
Best speed at distance- 109
Race trip- mid-pack to deep closer depending on the pace
Predicted finish- Out of top five, not sure he can run in graded company, but has a shot
3 6-1 Ceclaim21- Gormenghas(IRE) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Danehill Dancer x Fappiano x Roberto
25-10-5-4 1.6 million career earnings
Ceclaim21 (15%- 45.1%) is trying something different to shake this guy out of the funk he is in at the moment. The form simply is not there right now, and the drop to ten furlongs looks like the trainer is trying something, anything to get this guy back on track. After reeling off three 108+ efforts in the fall last year he has been unable to crack 102 in his last three races. Those numbers give him no chance. He even failed to fire in an allowance race two back finishing a well beaten third as odds on favorite. Not sure what the problem is right now, he only has 25 starts and should have plenty of tread left on the tires, but he is racing like a horse that is done. Of the closers he is the one that should be the farthest out early which does not bode well. This race at ten furlongs should be faster early then he is used to and could be 20 lengths back. If this scenario plays out he has no shot as he has not shown the ability to close rapidly in a long time. Even after saying all that, he does have back class, and maybe the drop in distance is what the doctor ordered.
Best speed- 112
Best speed at distance- 94
Race trip- Deep closer
Predicted finish- Out of top five. Past races say he needs to go longer
4 7-1 Jwolfe607- Vindinsky(KY) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Vindication x Nijinsky II x Mr. Prospector
30-10-11-3 996K career earnings
Jwolfe607 (21.6 51.1%) shows up at Surey, England with a shot. This might be the best horse in the field, but him form is not too good at the moment and is going to have to run much better than he has in a while. He does have one graded win out of seven tries and he seems to leave his best in the barn when he steps up. His lone graded win did come at this distance with his career best 114 speed figure. That race however, was all the way back last August and he has been mostly terrible since. His last two races have been better and his form might be coming back, or it might have to do with the serious class relief he was given in his last two races. This guy shows that great ability to stalk if there is a horse out front, or he can go up and grab the lead if necessary. I would expect to see him sitting two or three off the early pace and get first run at the leader at the top of the stretch if he fires. Like this horse, hate his current form.
Best speed- 114
Best speed at distance- 114
Race trip- stalking two or three back
Predicted finish- 3th, Could win if he can find some of the 2009 magic.
5 9-2 Bucephalus- Buddenbrook(FL) homebred 5yo horse
Congrats x F-rated Banjol (Milwaukee Brew x Summer Squall)
34-9-8-5 279K career earnings
Bucephalus (10-6%- 34.8%) shows up in England this week with a Florida bred. Don’t see that every day. A year ago this guy was an ok stakes horse. Not great, but held his own more times than not. Well in his 31st start Bucephalus decided to take him back out for a spin on the turf, as his first two career starts were on the green stuff. He only fired his career best speed figure of 114, but proceeded to come back with a 112 two starts later. He has show he is a much better on turf and I would expect the change to be permanent. This will be his first crack at graded company, and he is only sporting one stakes victory in fifteen tries. This guy is another stalker that should be close early. While the surface change seems to have done him a world of good the thing I find a bit disconcerting is his lack of wins with the big speed figures. His 114 and 112 while huge numbers, were still only good enough for a pair of second place finishes. He seems to fire every other race, and this week should be his week to run big, but I don’t think it will be enough. Has a huge chance, but don’t think he is going to like the graded company.
Best Speed- 114
Best speed at distance- 114
Race trip- up close stalking should be within two early
Predicted finish- Out of top five, but a serious contender if he can handle the jump in class.
6 6-1 Rlogan- Cozy Bend(IRE) homebred 4yo colt
Refuse to Bend x F-rated Cozzy Mambo (Cozzene x Kingmambo)
20-7-3-1 613K career earnings
Rlogan (11.7%- 36.2%) brings in a multiple stakes winner to England this week. This will be his seventh try at graded company, with his best finish being a close beaten second against three year olds only. This guy has shown himself to be a very nice horse that seems to not quite be able to get it done in the biggest races. He loves the distance, and his top speed figure of 111 certainly puts him in the mix. In looking at his past races one thing becomes very clear. If he is not in the mix early he is going to pack it in and call it a day. There is not a lot of true speed in this race, so there is no reason that he should not be on the lead or very close to it. I would like to see this guy try a longer race. I think with his style of running he might be able to get some easy leads and run away and steal some races. At this point in his career he needs to show he is more than a very good open stakes horse. I think there is some talent here, and he could be in line for better in the future. Plenty of tread on the tires.
Best speed- 111
Best speed at distance- 110
Race trip- on the engine, on lead or just off of it.
Predicted finish- 4th, has not shown the ability to close the deal in the past
7 5-1 Woette1- Woette’s Slipper(KY) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Forest Wildcat x Kingmambo x Buckpasser
29-6-7-2 792K career earnings
Woette1 (10.7%- 31%) has a graded stakes winner to bring to the table this week. This will be his 17th graded stakes try, which is a lot of races with only one win to show for it. This horse can show speed, but is not scary speed by any stretch. In the Equinics he was left in the dust falling three back early to Monteyoun. His only graded win came last November and a repeat of that performance may not be enough this week. His top speed figure of 114 is at the top of this group, but he has not run that number in a while, exactly one year ago to be exact. I think the last race can be thrown out, as that group of horses was sick, and a tall task for all but the super elite. In the past he has shown that he can run with GIII company having three top three finishes to show. While he might be outclassed in grade one races, he does belong in this crowd and has a shot. I would like to see this guy take a shot at this distance on the dirt. He showed quite a bit of speed at 7.5 furlongs which translate to very good speed at ten furlongs. I juts get the impression that he is a better horse than his results show.
Best speed- 114
Best speed at distance- 114
Race trip- on the lead if he runs
Predicted finish- 5th, not the best form in the world right now
8 13-1 Wfstables1- Mind Motion(AUS) homebred 4yo colt
Spinning World x G-rated Nasty Disposition (A.P. Indy x Raise a Native)
9-6-1-1 290K career earnings
WFstables1 (16.4%- 41.1%) brings a future freak. While this guy only has nine starts to talk about he is showing that we might be talking about him come Breeder’s Bowl time. There is nothing not lo love about this young one. The one question that he has to answer this week is the ten furlongs, but a closer look at his past performances should be looked at before we can say he won’t get the ten. The pedigree does not scream long with Spinning World on top, but there is plenty of stamina on the bottom with A.P. Indy and Raise a Native. So pedigree wise we can say that is not a distance problem. He has tried ten furlongs in the past which were disasters; there is no other way to put it. The first try was in May of his three year old season in only his fourth start. As bad as the speed figure of 78 is, let’s not forget he did win by a bunch, so the jock may not have asked for much. His second try was on an off track which can be written off, also early in his three year old season. While I think that nine furlongs might be his best distance, he is maturing rapidly and looks like he can get ten to me. He has shown some versatility in the past with his ability to stalk or close from the clouds. I would expect him to be a bit further back this week with all of the other stalkers up close. The one big worry this week is the chance he might bounce off of his career best 112 last time out. I would be more concerned if this was his 20th start. This is only his 10th start and certainly could build off of that race and throw another huge effort out there.
Best speed- 112
Best speed at distance- 80, although this was as a 3yo
Race trip- close up stalker, but can close from the clouds
Predicted finish- 1st, A horse on the improve that has a huge upside.
9 5-1 Tote- Jubbly(IRE) homebred 5yo horse
Shamardal x C-rated Burchell Hoolandia (Red Bullet x Seattle Slew)
26-10-5-6 401K career earnings
Tote (20.7%- 52.5%) has a graded stakes winner to throw into the mix from the nine hole. This horse might be in the best form of anybody in the race, and will most certainly have a say in who the winner is. If the untested four year old falters, expect the winner to be Jubbly. He is a closer, but won’t too far back. If he can sit 6-7 back he will be in perfect striking position. At five years old he looks like he might be hitting that perfect age for the turf routers. If you look at his past performances he has been getting better and better since he was two, and might be at the peak age for this type of racing. His last race was a very impressive performance crushing in a G III, winning off easy. If he can replicate that effort, he wins. The one thing that is not working in his favor is the last two races were the biggest speed figures of his career. It is going to be pretty hard to string three races back to back to back, and I don’t think he can. On the other hand, I love the form, and love the horse.
Best speed- 112
Best speed at distance- 112
Race trip- Closer, but will not be too far back
Predicted finish- 2nd, is the horse to beat, but I think he gets beat