13 Lucky for Someone to Grab Guineas

The Dubai 2000 Guineas

Grade III

One mile

Fast Dirt

$250,000

All horses, 3 years old

PP  Horse ID  Horse  Owner  Jockey  Odds

1 177650 WOETTE’S ULTIMATE(KY)  woette4  T Tippett  14/1  

Rail spot goes to this colt of modest accomplishments (N2L winner).  His last race, a second in the restricted Benelux Special, puts him much more on the map on account of the much-improved speed number earned, a 95.  He’s hopped across the globe a few times but is now well-rested since his December freshman finale.  If the last race is prologue, more improvement could be in store, pointing to a strong finish at long odds.

2 179371 GALAXY ALLIANCE(AUS)  deyoto2  S L Ledwith  5/1  

Dehere runner is in the top 100 for 3yo routers, earning that level with minor wins and a fifth in the Grade 1 North Fork last September.  He also took third in the Manor of Bashford last summer.  His 2010 campaign opener in Connecticut was a stunner, with a big 99 speed and a daylight allowance win.  There’s a lot to like here, and he looks like he is ripening fast as he grows up.

3 183740 WAR POINT(KY)  bennyhill  P Kinchen  18/1    

Young sire War Pass is off to a good start, and so is this one.  He has not been off the board in seven races, including a long march through his conditions in Upper New York.  His style is speed and more speed, and the backers of this longshot must hope that there is more in the tank than his high-80s speeds have so far shown.

4 187814 EXPENSE REPORT(KY)  pureclass2  D Lakencher  8/1 

California invader just cleared his N2L, but is a mile veteran, having competed at the distance since his September maiden win.  He should be toward the front of the main pack early and can motor in the lane if he’s in form.  The last race earned him a competitive speed number (94) even if the competition was suspect.  Worth a flier if he looks good to you.

5 126506 CRY OUT LOUD TED(KY)  ted  W Bayless  9/1    

Ted’s guy is just a maiden winner, but the speed credentials are creditable.  He’s broken through to the low 90s his last two, even though they were both runner-up efforts.  There’s a good stalking style and proven ability to run well at this distance.  Still, for my money, more interesting longshots are taking to the gate here.

6 180598 BLACK GOLDNINER(JPN)  bertaal  Q Cassell  9/1   

Your 2009 Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf winner (at 20-1!) tries dirt for the first time to start his sophomore season, so his connections may be wondering if he can repeat his Turf heroics on the Bluegrass Derby path.  It’s worth a try, for while Grade A broodmare ALBERTA GOLD was a turf gal, she is a Forty Niner/Seattle Slew.  That may outweigh the turf-leaning blood coming from sire Black Hawk(GB).  Overall, he’s going to pop something more like his Turf-winning 99 speed than those of his other races.

7 180647 XTRA NEXT WEEK(KY)  ejdstable  G Oldham  6/1    

Another N2L level horse, and lightly raced to date, he’s seemed a bit overmatched in his last two stakes starts.  He was up the track a few weeks back in Denmark’s Giant Slayer, so either he didn’t like the slop or he tired in classier company.  The oddsmakers like his series of 90s speeds, but it’s a crowded picture here.  6 to 1 does not satisfy given the question marks.

8 49336 FRENCH CAFE(KY)  murray1  H Harzheim  6/1    

First stakeswinner for sire Street Boss; handily defeated rival to his inside in the Giant Slayer in January.  There’s been steady improvement, and all three wins are at route distances.  A win will vault him into the top 20 in the division, which aught to help if he’s headed for the Derby.  The choice off his big recent speed numbers.

9 13899 GONE FOR HOLDING(KY)  nijinskaa  S Hale  11/1 

Should run an 88.  No, seriously, he’s run three times and each time earned the same number (88)!  He’s got a solid running style that should keep him out of trouble.  However, wouldn’t you want more seasoning in a race of this caliber?  Gone West products have a right to improve, so there is an angle for pedigree players.

10 177266 COLAC SMOKE(KY)  simaddict  T Jay  8/1    

Nice to see a Smoke Glacken among these –  and this grey colt has shown a commendable ability to run late in races up to seven furlongs.  Though his sire is more known for sprints, it stands to reason that this offspring of a top-bred mare will have no trouble with the extra furlong.  His performances are all excellent other than his three graded tries, so he still has a lot to prove at this level.  His fifth in the LA Prevue was not a clunker, and he comes in off a win in a minor stakes with a solid 94 speed.  Take the odds if you’re interested and look for him in the lane.

11 121660 SENSIBILITY(KY)  boldrule99  G Ayso  8/1    

Trying to build a resume, but he was an also-ran in his two Grade 3 attempts, the Charcoal Breeders and the Delta Jackpot.  That leaves him as yet another here boasting only N2L wins.  The potential is obvious, but he’s no win machine.  It’s unclear whether he has found his best running style, having tried (and won) on the front end and coming late.  Seems a little risky at 8-1 odds.

12 187460 HURRICANE ROCK(IRE)  austin  M Kidder  17/1   

Lone Irish-bred liked the switch to dirt just fine, rushing to three wins to complete his 2009 season.  He’ll have to fight off the other speed, and the speed numbers over his career are moderate for a graded stakes for 3yos.  A win seems iffy – perhaps tag for third in your trifecta wagers.

13 91346 GIFT OF THE GAB(GER)  aggots  G Harmon  21/1

Stuck on the outside and given the least chance of winning, the son of Monsun is among the weakest of the N2L winner group, since she just cleared it January 9th.  That was an 89 speed, which trends the right direction but is unlikely to scare anyone here.