Shining Sea Sprint (written by Monte)
Maria’s Mon x F-rated Our Tombs (Easy Goer x Nijinsky II)
20-10-1-3 291K career earnings
Mrhaack (23.1%- 50%) enters a lady to try and beat the boys for Sim Hispano glory.One thing is for sure is her form is as good as it ever has been with her ona very nice four win streak that is on the line. For a 5yo she has been lightlyraced with only 20 career starts, but now Mrhaack has a fresh mare that is betternow than ever. Haack’s Mom will not be close early and should be far backas she is a dead closer which sets up nicely with all of the speed present. Shehas only had three starts at the six furlong distance, but has managed to wintwo out of the three. The one troubling aspect that I do see is in her four attemptswith graded company she was closing, but not nearly fast or early enough andwas never really a factor. Her career best speed figure is a 109 at 6.5 furlongslast time out. There might be a chance of a bounce this week, but the fact thatthis is only her 21st start leads me to believe she can throw another decenteffort out. With all that being said I think this girl is a little out matchedthis week and any finish in the top half of the field would be a bit surprising.Can she win? I don’t think so, but she could get up for some money if shefires big.
Best speed-109
Best speed at distance- 106
Race trip- deep closer
Predicted finish- bottom half I’m afraid
2 28-1OHIO- Prado the Irish(IRE) homebred 6yo horse
Daylami x G-rated Xtreme Verse (El Prado x Kris S.)
29-8-5-3 213K career earnings
Biggredd (16.1%- 40.9%) sends out this grizzled veteran to represent the Ohio residency. In the past this guy was capable of some big efforts, but his form right now is pretty poor with only two wins in the last year. This will be Prado the Irish’s first foray with graded company, and has not yet captured a stakes win. His best stakes effort was four months ago when he made a late run to get up for third. When he is running his best race look for him to be off the pace, but not too far back. He should be about mid pack if he can run with this group early which might be a stretch. I don’t think that six furlongs is his best distance as he is only one for six. He seems to like a bit more ground like around seven furlongs. The one bright spot is that he has thrown out a 111 speed figure and if he can muster an effort close to that this week he might surprise a few folks. At only 29 starts he should still have some tread on the tires and a big effort would not be shocking.
Best speed-111
Best speed at distance- 103
Race trip- mid-pack closer
Predicted finish- bottom half, he needed an off track to have a shot
3 13-1 MINNESOTA DOWNS- CK Ridgemont High(KY) scratch homebred 6yo horse
Aptitude x Secretariat x Alydar
39-8-14-6 444K career earnings
Ckstable2 (9.8%- 28.4%) brings an interesting one in this week. This guy has now had two major paradigm shifts in his racing. Early in his career he was exclusively on dirt and was not moved to the turf permanently until his thirteenth start. All the while he was doing all of his racing between eight and ten furlongs. Then little less than one year ago Ckstables2 tried a sprint and made the change permanent about seven months ago. This will be his second try at graded company on the turf. His previous tries early in his career were on the dirt routing so they have little relevance here and we can safely throw those races out. His second place finish in a GII at five furlongs tells me he can run with this crowd. We should see CK Ridgemont High around mid pack or a bit further back. He is a closer that can’t get too far back and has the ability to stay somewhat close if the pace isn’t too hot. It will be hot this week. Last race out at 7.5 furlongs he tied his career best speed figure of 110 which could lead to a bounce. This horse is the real wildcard in this race, and I have no idea what to expect. He has zero starts at this distance and only three at less than seven furlongs.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- mid-pack closer
Predicted finish- 7th, but a better finish certainly could happen
4 14-1 ALPINE TURF CLUB- Alpine Medicine(ENG) scratch homebred 5yo
Medicean x Habitat x Turn-To
16-8-2-3 237K career earnings
Justeng (14%- 37.1%) shows up at British Columbia with a real big shot. This very lightly raced five year old is a bit of an off track specialist and there is no rain in the forecast this week. He has yet to race with graded company, but does have three stakes wins to his credit. His form right now is very good and has a legit shot, but I think the firm turf course hurts a little bit. I am not positive that six furlongs is his best distance but that should not big that big of a factor since he is two for two. I would expect to see Alpine Medicine up near the front in a stalking position about two or three back. His best performance came two races back at the six furlong distance on a good turf course. He popped a 110 then and that same performance gives him an opportunity to spring the huge upset. His breeding is tailor made for this type of distance on turf so all things point a performance that might just surprise a few folks. One factor that might be the most critical is the lack of racing with graded horses so far. It is very difficult to win that first graded race, and to try in a Grade I with a 20 horse field might be asking a bit too much. The fact is he was due to move up to graded stakes and a shot in the Equinics simply can’t be turned down
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- 110
Race trip- stalking two or three back
Predicted finish- 4th, but first shot in a graded stake might hurt
5 9-1 VERMONT- Highside(IRE) scratch homebred 5yo horse
High Chaparral x Irish River x Kingmambo
31-10-4-7 1.1 million career earnings
Firfight (11.9%- 33.8%) is up next with their Breeder’s Bowl winning sprinter that is part of the class of this field. This guy is certainly no stranger to graded races as this will be his ninth start with five top three finishes and two wins. As accomplished as Highside is though, his form has been pretty bad since the Breeder’s Bowl and is showing descending speed figures in every race since. This will be his 32nd start so there is that possibility that he might have lost a step or two, but I would not call that a ton of starts either. Regardless of the cause, Firfight needs to get this one turned around this week for him to have any shot to bring a win for Vermont. This will be only be his second start at the six furlong distance, although he has a second place two back at the distance. Let us look at his best race to see what he needs to do this week for a good finish. In the BB last fall he sat second the whole race about ¾ of a length back and took over at the top of the stretch and won pretty easy firing a career best 117 speed figure in the process. This is probably the same scenario he needs for a win. At seven furlongs he tends to show more speed and will get to the front, but at less than seven he has not yet shown real take your breath away speed that can get him up front. He should be close, but not on the front. After all of this one’s accomplishments I don’t think he can get it done right now. The descending speed figures and his lack of finish tells me he needs a bit of a freshening or a drop to allowance company to get his swagger back. There are a ton of great horses is this race and this is another that I can’t pick, but certainly sports a resume that says he can win.
Best speed- 117
Best speed at distance- 108
Race trip- up close stalking should be within two early
Predicted finish- 9th, but if he finds his old form watch out
6 14-1 MINNESOTA DOWNS- Rattlin’ Rebel(KY) scratch homebred 6yo horse
Perfect Soul x Caro x Majestic Prince
32-10-7-5 374K career earnings
Buckbean (18%- 48.5%) brings just another multiple stakes winning sprinter to BC this week, surprise surprise. This field is scary good and he should be in the mix at the end. This will be his seventh run with graded company, and has one win and one top three finish to put on his resume. While this guy does not have the flashiest speed figures in the field by any stretch, he consistently is there at the finish having no finishes out of the top four since September of 2008. That is pretty darn impressive. His form at the moment is good with three wins in his last five starts. Unlike a lot of the horses this week, six furlongs is what he likes, and in showing that he will be making his 16th start at the distance. Of the speed horses, Rattlin’ Rebel is probably the speed of the speed and should be on the engine early and gunning on the lead. Making the lead has never been a problem, but finishing has been with a ton of second place finishes just getting caught at the wire. One other thing that people might want to pay attention to is the fact that this guy has yet to get a single non maiden win in a field of more than ten. The jock might have to use this one up a bit to get to the lead in a twenty horse stampede that this is, so he might be a bit compromised at the end. In his best races he has shown the ability to get lone leads and hang on, but I don’t think we will see anybody get an uncontested lead this week.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- 106
Race trip- on the engine, gunning for the lead
Predicted finish- 6th, might be a bit used up towards the end
7 28-1 COMEDY CENTRAL- Pit of Despair(KY) scratch homebred 4yo colt
Unbridled’s Song x Blushing Groom x Seattle Slew
23-4-4-4 108K career earnings
Cmd2001 has shown up at BC this week with a very versatile runner that doesn’t seem to mind what surface or distance you throw him in, just so long as he gets a shot. This will be only his third run with graded company with one non threatening third place. Of the closers in the field he likes to come from the clouds which has worked well at seven panels, but has not shown the same ability to close at six furlongs. His form right now is very sharp with his career best speed figure of 110 coming in his last race at seven furlongs. This guy might bounce off of that huge effort, and combine that with this not being his ideal distance it could be a long day for Pit of Despair. I do see two stakes wins on this one’s resume, but they were both at seven or longer and that is going to make this extra difficult. Cmd2001 could try a home run and give the jock instructions to get closer to the lead early on, which I think is the only way he has a shot. In his best race which happened to be his last race he was actually nine back at the beginning of the turn and passed ten horses to get up for a narrow victory. If he tries that this week he is going to find that the race is already over when he starts to pick off horses. This is only a four year old, so there is still room to improve which he needs to do for any chance this week.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- 91
Race trip- deep closer, will be coming from the clouds
Predicted finish- bottom half
8 16-1 DELPENN- Super Risk(IRE) homebred 4yo colt
Danehill Dancer x F- rated Storm’s Fury (Fusaichi Pegasus x Storm Cat)
19-8-4-1 1.4 million career earnings
Wistful0 (15.7%- 38.1%) brings just another royally bred graded stakes winning colt into the Equinic’s fray. Out of his nineteen starts, eleven have been with graded company where he sports one win and five top three finishes. The one thing that really stands out with this guy is his ability to run his race in full fields. In his last race he ran a very nice second in a GI with a 19 horse field along with a ton of nice efforts in 14 horse fields. I would no expect this guy to be intimidated in the least. The one thing I don’t like that huts his chances this week are the lack of six furlong results. From all appearances, this guy looks like a miler or seven furlong specialist, but he certainly has the class and the experience to perform. His last and only start at six furlongs was way back in his fourth race, and since has been doing most of his racing at around a mile. He does show the ability to win from off the pace, but his best efforts are from a close up stalking position. I am not sure he can stay all that close this week with the true sprinter speed he is going to see for the first time. His best effort was his last race where he got a fast closing second place in a GI at seven furlongs. The pedigree I see here looks like he could certainly sprint and I do think he has a shot this week, but I really think that seven furlongs is more in his wheelhouse. The form is very good right now with his top five speed figures coming in his last five races. The fact is that we are now seeing the best that this one has and that could be enough to get into the mix and have a say in the outcome.
Best speed- 112
Best speed at distance- 77, although this was as a 2yo
Race trip- close up stalker
Predicted finish- 8th, could really like sprinting, and if he does he couldsurprise
9 20-1 STATE- Tskan Kee Ho(KY) homebred 5yo horse
Gone West x G-rated A Giant Danzig (Giant’s Causeway x Danzig)
14-8-2-0 256K career earnings
Mattress (17.2%- 44%) is bringing a very lightly raced five year old that looks ready to fire a big race. His form is pretty good as of late with the only graded victory coming two races back in the GIII Zeppelin cap running his best speed figure of 110 in the process. The front of the field should see this guy among its members as he has controlling speed that is tactical as well. He has enough true speed to get out front at five furlongs, so if he wants the lead he can certainly get it. I don’t think that is the plan as his best races find him setting just off the pace and pouncing down the lane. There is a lot of tactical speed in this race and if no one wants the lead he could certainly take charge. His last race in a GI he didn’t fire at all and ran a disappointing ninth with a poor 99 speed figure. While this race looks bad it was kind of expected with a career best 110 in a GIII the race prior, a bounce was probably unavoidable and makes that race a throw out.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- 110
Race trip- on the lead if soft pace, stalking if hot pace
Predicted finish- 5th, another one that could win if things go his way
10 13-1 MIDAS- Red Banana(IRE) homebred 4yo colt
Red Clubs x D-rated Banana Brio (Storm Cat x I Am The Game)
16-7-1-2 2.1 million career earnings
Chiknsmack (10.7%- 37.9%) brings yet another lightly raced horse into the mix. If there is one thing we can all learn from the horses in this race is that running horses every two or three weeks is not how you develop good stakes horses. Light, well meant schedules are how you get to the big races. So for all of you trainers that burn your horses up in their two and three year old seasons are probably never going to get to the big races for older horses. So let us take a look at Red Banana now that my editorial rant is over. This guy certainly is competent at six furlongs, but most of his monstrous performances have come at slightly longer distances, and that will be a factor in this race. The same speed he shows at seven furlongs seems to be missing at shorter distances and he needs to be in the hunt early to have a legit chance. His best race came two back at the GI DCPD VIII The Penn Dash. He beat many of the horses in that field that are here this week as well, but that race was at seven furlongs. The 110 he posted in that race was only his third best speed figure so he can improve from that effort and he will need to. Of his 16 career starts he has only been out of the top five once, so he can not be dismissed easily, but I don’t think he can beat the top horses at six furlongs.
Best speed- 116
Best speed at distance- 103
Race trip- up front stalking
Predicted finish- 10th, needs just a bit more distance
11 14-1 NW RACING CIRCUIT- In My Blood(IRE) homebred 4yo colt
Holy Roman Emperor x C-rated Nexis Song (Unbridled’s Song x Northern Dancer)
15-9-1-1 1.1 million career earnings
Stevemunoz (16%- 45.4%) has a very loaded very talented four year old that impresses the heck out of me. With nine wins from only 15 starts it is very hard to not love this guy’s chances this week. He is coming off of a very impressive GI win last time out with a speed figure of 109 which might be enough this week if he is able to duplicate that effort. His best speed is that 109, but has been able to repeat that effort three times. I really think he might be coming into his best form and a step up would not be shocking, in fact I am sort of expecting it. Another factor to put on the plus side for this one is that nine starts at six furlongs, with four wins and no finishes out of the top four in any of them. This is another one of the speed balls that can get the lead if he wants it although he can win from just off of the pace as well. The charge out of the gate may dictate where this one sets up shop, but I think he will be just off in a stalking position. We see a grizzled veteran of graded races with ten of them under his belt already. He has but two wins in them, but one of those was a GI where he bested two of this week’s other participants. I love the pedigree, I love the form, I love the set up for this one on Saturday, and I think we see a win.
Best speed- 109
Best speed at distance- 109
Race trip- on the lead or just off of the pace
Predicted finish- 1st
12 12-1 EAAA RACING- Galaxy of Gold(IRE) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Galileo x Dansili x Grey Dawn II
31-7-11-3 856K career earnings
Racer (14.8%- 42.9%) brings yet another royal bred to BC with a big shot this week. This guy spent the majority of his early career on the dirt but made the switch permanently late in 2008, and the rest has been history since. He has had some lowlights in his career running for a 40K tag in October of 2008, but has improved steady since that low point. He has nine starts at six furlongs on turf, so I know he can handle this distance, and he has been knocking on the door as of late. His one graded win back in October of 2009, but that was at seven furlongs. He has two second place finishes in graded stakes so he certainly can run with this crowd and I think he is sitting on a big one right now. His top performance was four back in a GII at seven furlongs and the plan was pretty simple. Get to the lead and stay there, and that is exactly what happened. Look for that same game plan this week. Many of the horses in this race will get out front if nobody else wants to be there, but his guy wants to be there and has the speed to make it happen. Look for him to be on the engine early. This guy’s resume is not quite as flashy as some of the others but his first or second place finishes in his last five races tell me he is in great form and has the speed to get it done this week or certainly be in the mix late.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- 108
Race trip- on the lead, needs to get it to have a shot
Predicted finish- 2nd, don’t think he can quite hold on
13 24-1 UNIVERSAL RACING CLUB- Loud Talkin’(KY) scratch homebred 4yo colt
Ghostzapper x Forty Niner x Storm Cat
11-4-2-1 132K career earnings
Hamster (14.6%- 41.5%) brings in a pretty green four year old this week that might be just a little be a little over his head. He did run his career best speed figure last race out with a 106 and a win, but the distance was 7.5 furlongs. This will also be his first run in graded company which does not bode well for a horse that has been racing in short fields for the most part as of late. He does have one stake win on his resume and that was at this week’s distance of six furlongs only two races back, but the speed of 103 will not get it done this week. This guy is a deep closer that might be nine or ten back in this race and could pass some tired horses, but he might also get 15 back and never really get running. I think that this guy’s best days are ahead of him, and a bad finish this week doesn’t mean too much. In both of his only two starts at six furlongs he passed a ton of horses late and he might be able to do that this week as well.
With only being his 12th start a big jump up in performance would not be unheard of, but a 20 horse field in his first graded try might be asking a little to much at this time.
Best speed- 106
Best speed at distance- 103
Race trip- deep closer, will be nowhere near the front early
Predicted finish- bottom half, not quite ready for this
14 22-1 IRELAND- Blood of Kingu(IRE) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Galileo x Rock of Gibraltar x Ela-Mana-Mou
21-8-5-2 310K career earnings
Kartago (17.1%- 47.4%) brings in a five year old that is not in the greatest of form at the moment, but has had some success in graded company in the past at this distance. He is having his fifth try with graded company this week, but does show one win. In August of last year he scored his only graded win in the GIII Mute Button where he stalked an early pace took over at the end of the backstretch and posted a career best speed figure of 109. Any effort that does not duplicate that career best will not end well for him this week. Six furlongs looks to be his best distance of very close to it, but his race last out in a GII at six furlongs has a lot to be desired finishing a non threatening 8th, and was never really a factor. His best races have come on the lead or just off and I just don’t think he has the speed to get to the front with this crowd of stars. If he can get to the front he has a shot, but that is a very big if.
Best speed- 109
Best speed at distance- 109
Race trip- Wants to be on the lead, but don’t think he can get there
Predicted finish- bottom half
15 11-1 BENELUX- Urko’s King(IRE) homebred 4yo colt
Sadler’s Wells x G-rated Take a Look at Me (Kingmambo x Roberto)
16-9-3-1 1.0 million career earnings
Urko1 (14.7%- 44.3%) brings in a four year old with a very nice four year old with a strong resume that is capable of anything. This horse poses quite a dilemma for my prediction skills. He is perfectly capable of winning this race but his efforts since last year’s BB are not inspiring very much confidence. It looks like Urko has seen the same trend and has kept him on the sidelines since mid December in attempt to freshen him up. How will he respond off of that rest? Does he need a race? Many questions that I don’t have a good answer for. His last race he was very flat which is a pattern that horses coming out of the BB sprint seem to be showing in this field. In his races where he fires he is either on the lead or very close to it, but never got involved at all in the last race which was a GI. This will only be his fourth start at sic furlongs, but his second place finish in the BB says that is not an issue. I would expect him to amongst the plethora of stalkers that will be following the first flight, but make no mistake he needs to be close. If you see this guy slip three or four back early, forget it, it’s over. If he finds his old form he could be there, but I think he needs a race off of his time off.
Best speed- 115
Best speed at distance- 105
Race trip- near the front, depends on if he fires or not
Predicted finish- bottom half, but no huge shock if he is much better than that
16 17-1 EAST-WEST CONNECTION- Tobyhanna(KY) homebred 4yo colt
Perfect Soul x H-rated Lady Carpenter(Gone West x Alleged)
20-12-5-0 835K career earnings
Luiet60 (15.8%- 39.6%) brings in a well-protected four year old that has not faced top flight competition in quite a while. He is riding a six race winning streak, but against only allowance company in very short fields. I have no idea why, since he has a GI and GIII wins on his resume. His last race in stakes company was in July of 2009 and his last graded race was in February of 2009. I think that he is not really a sprinter as his only route race was on an off track which he seems to dislike. A mile might be very much to his liking and at his young age an experimental race would not be a bad idea. He has a pedigree to go plenty long, and probably should be tried again at some point. When this guy runs his race, he almost always does, he should be pretty far of the pace and closing like a rocket, but I think with this crowd he is going to be a lot further back than he is used to and won’t really start running till this is over. To have a shot he needs to stay within seven or eight lengths back early, any further back and I don’t think he has a shot. This is a very talented horse that has been protected in allowances races, and that will do him no favors this week.
Best speed- 107
Best speed at distance- 107
Race trip- deep closer, will be coming back from the next zip code
Predicted finish- bottom half, don’t think he can stay close enough earlyto be a factor
17 14-1 BLAZING SADLES- Covet(ENG) homebred 4yo colt
Dansili x G-rated All I Want (Giant’s Causeway x Forty Niner)
17-4-6-2 1.3 million career earnings
Rtribbett (16.3%- 43.5%) has a well decorated four year old this week that could finish anywhere. He is racing as well as he ever has at the moment, but I am not quite sure his best race will be quite good enough. This will be his 11th start in graded company with two wins and five other top three efforts. He has shown the ability to be in almost every race he is in, but he only has two starts against older horses and his last one was not a good one. There was no reason for him to lose in a conditioned allowance race last out as the odds on favorite. I think that six furlongs might be a bit short for him as seven furlongs and a mile seem to produce a bit better results. His best races he is generally a mid pack closer that can be further back, but not too far. His best race came two back at the GI DPCD where he closed to a close third place. He did not win but that was a big effort against older horses for the first time running a 108. I do like the fact that he has not been protected and has made the majority of his starts n full fields which is a huge bonus this week. I really have no idea what to think of this guy this week. How bout this I’ll pick him low and he can shock us all (it won’t be shock to see a huge race)
Best speed- 109
Best speed at distance- 105
Race trip- mid pack closer
Predicted finish- bottom half, but has the ability to do much better
18 9-1 GR SIMSTERS- Tatsu(KY) homebred 5yo horse
Ghostzapper x E-rated Mother of Dragons (Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector)
27-12-5-3 1.8 million career earnings
Given (21.3%- 54.4%) is bringing in a fully loaded beast to BC this week. That looks to be well set up with a GI win two back and an easy allowance win last time out. This is where good trainers separate themselves from the rest. Given has had his eye on this race and set him up perfectly for him to run his best race. This guy made his first five starts on the dirt and was very successful with two wins out of only five starts, but given decided that was not quite good enough. In his three year old debut he made the switch to turf and has not looked back since. He has four starts at six furlongs and of those four he won the GI King Kong sprint running a very nice 113 speed figure in the process. This will be his 10th race in graded stakes with three wins to report. The one thing that I do find a bit troubling is the fact that he has never won a race from anywhere but the lead. He simply has to have it, but the good news is he can get there. This is probably the speed of the speed and should be able to dictate the race from up front. Unlike many front runners he only runs fast enough to get the lead and has never shown a propensity to open up huge margins thus conserving energy. I like this guy’s current form and the nice set up race at five furlongs.
Best speed- 114
Best speed at distance- 113
Race trip- Should be leading them all
Predicted finish- 3rd, but certainly can win…easily
19 16-1 QUEENSLAND- Top Notch Hero(KY) scratch homebred 6yo horse
Distorted Humor x Capote x Cure The Blues
49-13-7-7 460K career earnings
Johnhoward (11.1%- 30.7%) brings in the most experienced horse of the 20 sporting 49 career starts. However, after changing barns twice in the last year and a half via claim, he is racing better than he ever has, but that might not be enough anyways. This veteran of the track spent the majority of his early career on dirt and only made the permanent switch only a year ago. He seems about equally talented on either surface, with six furlongs a distance he can run at. This will be his 7th graded start with a win all the way back in his first try way back in his three year old season. Every try since then has been on dirt with poor results with his best finish 7th. He is another deep closer that might find himself a mile back early with no shot. This is a very nice horse and a very nice claim but I just don’t think he can run with this crow any longer.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- 106
Race trip- deep closer
Predicted finish- bottom half
20 15-1 HONG KONG RACING CLUB- Materialistic(KY) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Aragorn x Lammtarra x Herbager
27-6-8-2 416K career earnings
Stormrun (10.2%- 40.7%) brings in his stakes winning five year old that needs to improve quite a lot to have a shot in this race. The races to look for that give this one some hope are the back to back graded stakes races four and five back. In both of those races he was flying at the end finishing a nice second and fourth, but only beaten combined one and a half lengths. Those two races tell me he has an outside shot, but his effort in the GI King Kong tells me he has no shot. He fished a weak 7th not really closing on a pretty hot pace. The GIII the race prior to the King Kong was also a flat effort. When he runs his best race he is about six off of the lead and makes one late run. He has shown the ability to run with this class of horse, but not consistently. He does have a shot, but needs a big form reversal to even get in the top half of the field.
Best speed- 109
Best speed at distance- 104
Race trip- mid pack closer
Predicted finish- bottom half, form