Angry Gods, Hell’s Cold, Alphabets, Fainting Goats and Nightmares
A field of eleven colts has accepted for this week’s
Looking through the field in barrier order:
# 1 – God’s Angry – (God’s Own – Street Vengeance (Street Cry / Touching Wood)) – Db – God’s not angry. Johnny’s Angry! While I continue to forlornly hold out hopes for Biblical Saint, my four year old still plods along exuding mediocrity. In the meantime, the same sire produces this colt, and I’m expected to be funny. Is Street Cry / Touching Wood a better pedigree than Theatrical / Relaunch? Not in my book. Why didn’t the sim gods treat my neddy with more respect?….or more ability. I guess this colt’s mum had more talent than the dam of mine….well, perhaps not “I Guess”; there’s actually a world of difference…she knew where the winning post is, mine didn’t! But then she’s only produced mediocrity before this, so why does she ‘work’ with God’s Own? God only knows! No Donny, God’s not angry…at least not with you. This colt has a heap of ability. Send some of it over to my place.
# 2 – Gerald Michael – (Lewis Michael – Madam Ivor (Galileo / Kingmambo)) – Revelation – A most interesting runner. He’s had only six runs. He’s finished first in half of them, on the board in two others and ran fourth of eighteen in his only ‘failure’. And yet he’ll go around at most enticing odds in this. Perhaps the oddsmakers’ generosity is courtesy of the fact that, until his latest run, his speed ratings were a bit pedestrian. Pedestrian or not, he was beaten just half a length in the G2-Flying Children Stakes, so he gains a credit many of this week’s opposition lack; black type status. The 1.36.6 he ran on DelPenn day underlines his talent. This will probably be run a little faster than that, but not much. A repeat of that most recent effort may see him right in the mix. The first foal of a twice stakes placed mare, he’s already outscored his dam on the track, and it looks like there’s plenty more to come
# 3 – Battle Station – (Teofilo – Battlefield Earth (Diesis / Kingmambo)) – Mrbigb – This colt, at 5/1, holds down the second spot in the early market. And as he looks to win his fifth consecutive race, it’s not hard to understand why he’s being treated with plenty of respect. His formline is superb. Sure, there’s always conjecture surrounding the value of owner restricted allowances, but several residencies can feature races every bit as good as those outside. And have a look at that last effort in
# 4 – Truffle Shuffle – (Hard Spun / Mr. Greeley / Capote) – Ssimhero – This is going to be interesting. The first few steps in this race are going to have an enormous influence on the eventual outcome. In three runs on the grass, no horse has, even for a stride, been ahead of this runner. Pillar to post front running exhibitions in all three. So, why are those first few steps so important? Answer: The same scenario also fits Lou Fuz Lazer, and one of them has to take a backward set, or run the risk of both of them grinding each other into the ground. This runner holds the key. He’s got the inside running and therefore possibly a slight advantage. Opposition trainers and jockeys will be hoping for a fight to the death. Those of us without vested interests, will watch what should be an enthralling encounter. Oh, I almost forgot, he’s a great chance in this race.
# 5 – Showbiz Fireworks – (Nobiz Like Showbiz – Standard Fireworks (Forest Wildcat / Seeking the Gold)) – Foxon5 – OK, you tell me how it works. 14/1 for a Grade 1 winner just two starts back. 14/1 for a grade 1 winner whose main competition in this comes from (albeit good) allowance horses yet to prove themselves at anywhere near this standard. Yes, there’s a concern surrounding his last run in the G1-The Futurity, but, following three wins in a row, surely that can be forgiven somewhat. It would be much easier to forgive had he not been so impressive in his previous run on affected ground, but I’m sure the bookmakers have overreacted here. The second progeny of a winner of just one from seventeen, he’s the star of a family tracing back several generations, with smatterings of black type form spread throughout. This could be a great betting race for players of exotics. The outsider, Purple Letter, doesn’t deserve to be longest priced, and this colt doesn’t deserve to be second longest in the market. Anyone for a value exacta?
# 6 – Lou Fuz Lazer – (Dansili / Kris S. / Blushing Groom)) – Fetti – Not a lot to say really. Two starts. Two wins. Gave nothing else any glimpse of a chance in those two runs, winning by an extending three and a half lengths first up, and a comfortable two lengths last start. No horse has ever been ahead of him at any time during his brief career. The biggest concern looks to be the early battle for the lead with Truffle Shuffle. If they cut at each other from the jump, they may run each other into the ground. But if either can get to the front without expending too much energy, then competing jockeys are going to want to time their closing runs very carefully. If this colt were in my stable, I’d be very confident of keeping the unbeaten record intact.
# 7 – Cold Day in Hell – (Forestry – Society Terrorizer (Gulch / Sadler’s Wells)) – Sdmfclaims – It is a tad surprising to me to see this colt, with his excellent record thus far, attempting the route trip for the first time at this, his tenth outing. With the exception of his last start flop at DelPenn, he’s given the indication that a bit more ground would cause him no concern. While I’d expect him to handle it comfortably, I’m a bit concerned that the oddsmakers are doing us no favors by keeping him at such a cramped quote, (6/1) with that question mark hovering. But, back to the positives. He’s a Graded winner and placegetter in a race where most of his opponents are untried at even the unlisted level, and that stands him in good stead. He’s the first offspring of a stakes placed mare, and he’s banked over $300k, so perhaps my initial negativity is unwarranted. He’s a genuine chance in a tough race.
# 8 – Gloster Meteor – (Curlin / Storm Cat / Sadler’s Wells)) – Locomotive – This bloke has earned the top line of betting through a well balanced progression to this level of racing. A maiden winner on debut, the next four gave him solid grounding in allowances before promotion to the listed class saw him make the grade with a gutsy win. If there is to be a question mark, he’s yet to race in a route. But he’s closed out his recent races strongly, that stakes win was over seven and a half and that 96 is the highest number on the formguide. It’s not hard to see why he’s got that top spot in the market. I don’t like tipping favorites, and I do like to look for faults when assessing them. This colt doesn’t look to have any faults, at least under these conditions. Expect another top run this weekend.
# 9 – Elite Emblem – (War Emblem – Scapped Seattle (Deputy Minister / Seattle Slew)) – Eliteracng – An interesting runner who’ll cause punters plenty of headaches as they try to assess his chances. On first inspection, the turf form is great. Two wins and a second from three. But… and there are several ‘buts’…Both wins were on affected ground. The run on the firm going landed the lowest speed rating and he was beaten in a small field. His times are several lengths shy of the likely requirement here, and his racing ‘peak’ thus far, was in an NW1x allowance. His dam, something of an underachiever despite the superb blood, has produced just one stakes placed runner from four foals, not that that means a lot. Having dwelt on the negatives, we must respect those raw turf results however, and I’d expect that this colt may go on to become the best of Mum’s progeny, but to reach that target this week would be a mild surprise, at least to this writer.
# 10 – Abcdefghijklmopqrs – (Skywalker – Headless Horseman (Seattle Slew / Mr. Prospector)) – Snowman – What did ‘n’ do wrong, not to take his place in the line up. Never mind. I expected to see Alphabet Soup somewhere in the breeding panel, but I guess that, along with the omission of the fourteenth letter, is just something to ponder. Based on a Stakeswinner, this colt is the most experienced runner here, with eleven starts under his belt. His raw speed numbers aren’t as impressive as those of some of the opponents, but there’s nothing wrong with his overall results, having won three and filled podium placings in a further five. The lack of previous black type form remains a question mark, but that’s offset a tad by the fact that he’s won his last two and may now be ready for the promotion. The market has him about right. He needs the breaks to go his way, but you can’t dismiss him.
# 11 – Purple Letter – (Sagebrush Sam /Holy Bull / War Chant)) – # 4 – Wiz0 – And this is the outsider of the field! A colt with two wins and a third from just four runs. But the point the bookmakers seem to overlook is his record on the green stuff. He’s only had the one turf run. And that was his last start allowance victory, where he looked to win with plenty in hand, over this trip. We know that the computer, in assessing the odds, takes just raw numbers into consideration. We also know that betting in the sim is not the game’s strong point. But every now and then something comes along to make us wish it were different. This bloke is one of these. There are black type winners here and he hasn’t yet proven he’s up to the class. But he’s no 16/1 shot in this line-up. If you like him, back him across the board with a fair degree of confidence.
Selections:
Purple Letter – Why not? The outsider of the field certainly doesn’t deserve to be.
Showbiz Fireworks – The only Grade 1 winner in the race at stupid odds.
Gloster Meteor – No denying he’s got the best overall form.
And if God’s Angry gets up and wins, I’ll have no choice but to use his sire again