Royalty Stakes (Now With Clicky Goodness)
Royalty Whatevers
The inaugural running of the Grade III Royalty Stakes presents a classic problem. The lone graded winner in the field, Reed Road, happens to be the number one rated filly in the division. She has amassed 136 stakes points, while a majority of the field has less than 5. So what’s the problem? The problem is that it’s a new year, and horses can run very differently as three-year-olds than they did at two. Is one of the lightly raced fillies about to show a huge and unpredictable jump in ability? It could be.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 COLD EMPIRE(KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x WILD AGAIN x COZZENE) bred and trained by larksfarms (Bigrick Stables, 14%) Style: S Odds: 3-1
This fifth offspring from a stakes-winning mare has been by far the most productive. She’s already earned more money in her eight starts than any of her older siblings have in as many as 74 starts. She closed furiously on a runaway winner in the Grade II Silver Spoon Juvenile last time, and she gets two more furlongs to work with today. She also gets a field loaded with early speed. Every time she’s increased her distance on the turf she’s shown marked improvement. Jockey will be out to prove his outstanding rookie season was no fluke. She’s an obvious contender.
PP 2 UNDECLARED MAJOR(JPN) (DAIWA MAJOR (JPN) x DIESIS(GB) x THEATRICAL(IRE)) bred and trained by rommeyblvd (Shamrock Stables, 12%) Style: P Odds: 13-1
Daiwa Major was one of the more heralded first-year sires last year, but so far he has yet to produce a stakes winner in the Sim. This filly is one of two that have been stakes-placed, and her connections hope to break through today. There are a couple of reasons to be cautious. Her stakes-placing came against a field that has not accomplished anything outside of that race, her speed figure decreased when she tried her lone route, and she’s never broken an 80 speed figure. Tough to be optimistic about the distance or the class. On the other hand, I bred a few Daiwa Majors last year, and I am counting on them all to be a lot faster now that they’ve turned three.
PP 3 HOLLOW FACE(ENG) (BEAT HOLLOW (GB) x SCARR FACE x NUREYEV) bred by Okieslew, trained by targetplay (Targetplay Stables, 10%) Style: E Odds: 14-1
The long odds on this filly have more to do with her modest breeding and debut in maiden claiming company than with her performance. Barn made a shrewd claim in that maiden claiming debut and has placed her boldly since then. She ran way better than her odds predicted in both of her allowance races. She again faces long odds as she makes a huge class jump. Dam was a dirt sprinter, so there is reason to question her chances in a graded turf route.
PP 4 FALDO(JPN) (FALBRAV (IRE) x EL PRADO(IRE) x THEATRICAL(IRE)) bred and trained by cmd3 (Cmd Stables, 13%) Style: S Odds: 9-1
Trainer clearly was so distracted fixing Comedy Central contests that he didn’t notice how poorly this filly fared when facing a very ordinary stakes field last time. All he saw was a small field where his filly could finish in the top ten. Before that last race she showed some promise, finishing in the money in five straight races, but really, what is up with that last race? It’s not the kind of performance you normally step up in class from. And stuff.
PP 5 MISS JENNYNGTON(KY) (HARLINGTON x DANZIG x HOIST THE SILVER) bred and trained by alroman (Alroman Stables, 13%) Style: E Odds: 5-2*
She tried turf for the first time last outing and wired the field in a time that earns her favoritism here. She faces a certain battle for the early lead today, however, and there are other questions. Harlington, in his brief tenure at stud, has not produced many turf runners in the Sim. Her dam was winless on the lawn. Her speed figures have been consistently good, but they have plateaued at the time in a filly’s career when you would hope to see big improvements. Finally, her impressive record of five wins in seven starts is tempered by the fact that her only two losses have come in her only two stakes tries. She is fast, consistent, and undefeated on the turf – she obviously can win. It’s just that she is not a good betting value as a favorite.
PP 6 VAL D’ISERE(ENG) (OASIS DREAM (GB) x THEATRICAL(IRE) x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred by racer, trained by trembling (Tees Stables, 12%) Style: P Odds: 5-1
All three of this filly’s out-of-the-money finishes have come in her three graded stakes attempts, but that doesn’t necessarily mean she’s outclassed here. All three of those fields were stronger than this one, and she was competitive in two of them. Her stalking style should be ideal for the shape of this race. Oasis Dream has overwhelmingly produced sprinters in the Sim, so the added distance she faces today may be a problem.
PP 7 AXEL FOLEY(IRE) (ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x LORD AT WAR(ARG) x CAERLEON) bred and trained by thethumb (THE EMPIRE – 100 G1 WINS AND COUNTING, 24%) Style: E/P Odds: 6-1
There is an Axel Foley running in real-life California. After a promising start to his career, including being graded-placed as a two year old, he is running in claimers, still eligible for n2l conditions. This Axel Foley is off to a great beginning to her career, finishing in the money in all five of her races. Her worst finish, a third in the Grade III Dormello, came against a much stronger field than this. She won for fun in a slow time last out at this track. The breeding says she should only get better as the distances increase. She’ll be involved in a multi-filly speed battle, but twice before she has prevailed despite speed duels.
PP 8 REED ROAD(KY) (HENRYTHENAVIGATOR x PLEASANT COLONY x ROBERTO) bred and trained by worldwide (More Evil Than the Evil Empire, 12%) Style: E Odds: 7-2
It’s a surprise to see the number one ranked filly in the division only third in the morning line. How about these betting angles? She has the highest last-out speed figure; she’s the only one to have raced (and won) at this distance; she wired a field of boys last time despite being challenged every step of the way; she gets the best NZ jockey; and her speed figures have been growing by leaps and bounds every race. Her greatest enemy may be the calendar. How many terrific two-year-olds falter their sophomore season?
Summary: All my two-year-olds were very slow. I certainly hope that means they will all turn fast now that they have turned three. But until I see it, we’ll have to go by what we’ve seen – not what we hope to see. I’ll go with: Reed Road / Axel Foley / Cold Empire.