Louisiana–A strong field of fourteen three year old colts has assembled to battle it out in the ten furlong, $500,000, Grade I, LA Derby. This race could have three year old colt of the year consequences as it features the winner of the Bluegrass versus the winner of the New Yorker. The winner of the Bluegrass Derby, Champions4’s Anticosti is the slight 9/2 favorite versus the winner of the New Yorker, Louisville’s Macho Niner. These two have met on one prior occasion, in the Princess Cup, a race that saw Macho Niner decisively defeat Anticosti. Can Anticosti turn the tables on Macho Niner or can someone else step up and grab the ring? There looks to be a couple of other major players in this race and it might not be the two horse field that many people believe it to be. As always, for our entertainment pleasure, Official Hong Kong Track Handicapper, Pete ‘The Hatchet’ Wang attempts figure out if the favorites should be the favorites or if there is value elsewhere in the race.
PP1, Whitehall’s Laconia Light(7-1, Richard). “Lightly raced son of A.P. Indy is making his graded debut. What a tough spot to do so in, but he has plenty of talent if he can overcome his inexperience. Laconia Light is making only his ninth start. In his first eight tries he won five races and earned over $140,000. He has won his last three races in very impressive fashion and his last two scores have come in stake races in which he has absolutely mauled his opponents. His high speed rating is a 108 and that figure makes him competitive with the top horses in this race. Stalker has never gone ten furlongs, but strong pedigree makes it very likely that he will enjoy the distance as his dam sire is Smart Strike and his DDS is Nijinsky II. I really like this colt’s chances of finishing in the money. He comes in this race in strong form and has a running style that should serve him well. As to whether or not he can pull off the upset, I think he can do it but I’d like his chances better if he had one prior graded performance. I’m using him underneath in my exotic wager.”
PP2, Sdmforlife’s One Bold Rush(6-1, Hogin). “Twelfth ranked in the division, One Bold Rush has been the classic bridesmaid in his last several efforts. In his last four starts he has finished second in each of the races. He finished second against Macho Niner in the Travelers, he was second in the G1 Eddie Haskell, he was second in the G2 Buckeye Derby and he was second in a regular stake. With any sort of luck he wins at least one of those races. Overall this son of Strike The Gold is four of fourteen and has earned in excess of $948,000. This stalker’s high speed rating is a 108. He attracts a top jockey to ride him in Hogin. Perhaps the jockey can put him over the top. I’ll use him under. Once bitten twice shy.”
PP3, Louisville’s Macho Niner(5-1, Baldringer). “The morning line second choice is a son of Macho Uno out of a Pulpit mare. In his career, Macho Niner has won seven of sixteen and has earned over $1.8 million dollars. Currently he is ranked fourth in the division. Since June, Macho Uno has won three of four races including Grade I triumphs in the New Yorker, the Princess Cup and the Travelers. In the Princess Cup he met and defeated Bluegrass Derby winner Anticosti. The last three times that Macho Uno has raced track conditions have been off and he really thrived on those off track conditions. He did lose a G1 in that stretch, but I blame his loss to distance rather than on the surface. I think that the race was a furlong too short for him. He’s good at nine, but he looks to be superior at ten furlongs. The big question in my mind is whether he is a mud monster or if he is capable of racing on a fast surface as well as he did in the Travelers. In the Travelers he led in the slop from gate to wire and put up an impressive 110 speed rating. I’m going to assume that he can race just as well on a fast track as on a sloppy track based on his performance in the New Yorker. In the New Yorker he handled the field with aplomb and I think he’ll race similar to that race today. I know there are a couple of rabbit’s in this race (Correction’s colts come to mind), but he doesn’t need the lead to win. He can stalk and he generally does so except in the instance of his last race. I’m using him on top of my wagers.”
PP4, Rbaze3’s Grand Tycoon(7-1, Szott). “Son of Grand Slam has met Macho Niner in the Travelers, Birthday and the Princess and has been found wanting. Closer did not fare well in the Princess. Finished right behind him in the Birthday and was a decent third in the Travelers. Overall, Grand Tycoon is ranked 25th and has won five of twelve for $395,000. Three starts ago he did impressively win the G3 Hoover Handicap, an 8.5 furlong race. That race saw him put up a 109 speed rating over a sloppy track. A very impressive performance. His last four starts have been over tracks rated ‘off’. Perhaps the fast track will cause improvement. I’ll use underneath.”
PP5, Danbury’s Dromedary(Gb)(13-1, Donahue). “Closing son of Beat Hollow is a decent sort, but I think he may be in too tough a spot. Dromedary was fifth in the G1 Citation Cup in his last race. That race also marked him running a career best speed rating of 103. I think a 110 speed rating or better will be needed to win this race and he has yet to demonstrate that he can race to that level. Can’t recommend until I see that he actually can put up such a figure.”
PP6, Brightvair’s Flying Header(32-1, Romero). “I really like the name of this colt. Sire is named after the great Dutch striker Van Nistelrooy who has put in his fair share of headers for Man U. He really saved their bacon in the Champion’s League game this week. Do you play Hattrick? If so I can use an international friendly. But to get back to the Flying Header, he is a capable stakes winner who usually races longer. He won a ten furlong 2L allowance way back in week 2419 with an 85 speed rating, but he is capable of much better as he won a twelve furlong race with a 100 in week 2496.”
PP7, Champions4’s Anticosti(9-2, Oxon). “Favorite is currently rated second in the Division and is trained by the controversial Stoners. He has had an excellent three year old season, winning the G1 SRF, G2 Fountain of Ute, G1 Corkscrew, the big daddy of them all, the G1 Bluegrass and the G1 Swamps. He was third his last time out in the G1 citation and he was 7th versus the favorite in the G1 Princess Cup. Overall in his career, he has won nine of fourteen and earned over $2.5 million dollars. Stuff of legend and we have been able to follow much of his impressive season through numerous message board discussions. I seem to recall that Stoners wasn’t very happy after the Swamps because the jockey didn’t follow his instructions and raced him on the lead rather then stalking. He skipped the Middle Jewel so not to damage his colt’s long term future. Perhaps a decision that will turn out to be very wise. I also believe he didn’t run in the New Yorker because he was only RTG. There have also been discussions in regards to three year old colt of the year and horse of the year involving his steed. All in all a bit of added spice to the game. Two or three seasons from now players will still remember his colt, much as they do Ray of Pye. Now, is he beatable in this race or will he win it? I’m going to say he’s beatable for several reasons. First, I have to make a stand to entertain you the reader or my editors could fire me. (Maybe not fire me, but reassign me) Controversy is good. Second, even though he has a ten furlong win, I think his best racing distances are nine furlongs or less. He is one for three when racing past nine furlongs, though his lone victory was a huge victory, coming as it did in the Bluegrass. Third, I think that Macho Niner currently has better form then Anticosti. It’s way too early to make comparisons about who will have the better overall career, or even who was the better three year old, but right now Macho Niner is the hot horse based on his Traveler’s win and the one to beat. I’ll use Anticosti underneath in my wager even though he is capable of winning.”
PP8, Lenny13’s Act Of God(9-1, Bo Ryan). “Snakebit son of Empire Maker has been second seven times in his twelve race career. A deep close Act Of God finished 2nd in the G1 Citation Cup in his last race. That effort earned him a 108 speed rating as his furious rally came up a bit short. Raced ten furlongs in week 2482 and was second. Has raced 11 and 12 furlongs and finished second at both distances. Only has two career wins, but all his seconds have him rated 26th in the Division. Have to use him second in my exotics (third as well).”
PP9, Lasthope1’s Star Crossed(36-1, Shannon). “Son of Gone West might be in a bit over his head. Lifetime he is zero for four when routing and his best lifetime speed rating is a 96.”
PP10, Tbreds2002’s Hold The Pickles(17-1, Snowden). “This is my Tsing Tao longshot special selection. This son of A.P. Indy was 4th in the Citation and looked in that race like he could enjoy a bit more ground and he gets added ground here. I also think the Citation was a race that he could build on. It was his first graded try and was a decent effort at a price. Current connections have really turned around this horse since his auction purchase. He has gotten better in every race.”
PP11, Correction’s Tunnel Vision(18-1, Morris). “First of two rabbits for this trainer. This early speed horse is seven of seventeen and has earned over $313,000. This son of Seeking The Daylight’s best race was a second in the G2 Clerk Of Scales in Ontario. In that 9.5 furlong race he earned a 105 speed rating.”
PP12, Correction’s Underworld(Ire)(20-1, Ashmore). “Rabbit number two is a son of High Chaparral that is winless on the dirt. He generally runs on the sod. Has a fifth in the G2 Tete Mile Classic. Obviously these two are looking to run down a certain horse. Gamesmanship or Brinkmanship, you decide.”
PP13, Squirrel4’s Solar Song(9-1, Campy). “Son of Deputy Minister has raced in many restricted races, but in the Eddie Haskell he faced open company and ran a huge race. In that race he finished third with a 107 speed rating. I think he has the talent to win this race, but needs a perfect trip to get the job done. Speed duel would help this closer’s chances. In his career he is six of thirteen and has earned over $324,000. I’ll use him in my exotics underneath, but I’ll play him flat as my saver.”
PP14, Corza5’s Buddha’s Undies(18-1, Ma Scott). “Two races ago he was a promising fourth in the G2 Clerk Of Scales, but I believe that race might be an aberration rather then the rule. Bet your money on someone else.”
Thanks ‘Hatchet’ for the analysis. Any and all opinions are yours and not necessarily mine. Until next time, may the racing Gods favor you