All Hail The Queen

Race : Queen Liz Commemorative – Grade II – $1,675,000
Track : Japan

We travel to Kyoto Japan today for this race for fillies and mares. It is run on the turf the track at Kyoto is just under 1 1/4mies around so this race starts in front of the stands. It is therefore important not to get pushed wide on the first bend. The draw is a factor in this race. This is one of a few races in Japan open to overseas horses. This year they had free nominations to the race in effect to get mares that may have run at the Breeders Cup meeting. Did this work well to a certain extent yes it did. The Aga Khan filly that came fourth in the race went there instead of the Breeders Cup the reason given was the amount of entry fee required in America that made it uneconomic. There was also another motive related to public relations. It would appear that Sea The Stars is likely to be used by several prominent far eastern owners who will send mares over to Ireland.

Racing in Japan is very strange they have a two tier system and it is hard to pass the regulatory controls to race in the big prize money league. They are opening up to foreign owners but they must have 80% homebred runners for any foreign bred horses. It would therefore be a interesting thing given the regional breeding if Mike says as of 2011 anyone who wants to run in a Japanese grade 1 needs 8 horses in the stable bred with a (Jpn) tag.

This race being won by fillies has no influence on world bloodstock and breeding so I cannot list any major past winners.

The winner this year was a daughter of the Japanese horse of the year for 2001 Jungle Pocket the son of the Arc winner Tony Bin has seen his offspring come first in five grade 1 races. He has not had a horse rated above 120 though. This probably shows the level of ability of racing in Japan around 7lbs below top class. The main thing to say is about 80% of his top runners have been out of Sunday Silence mares. I think it is fair to say given the evidence and how well he has done as a dam sire from his mares outside of Japan he is worthy of a better rating in the sim as a dam sire.

OTTO PLATINUM MINESHAFT x SAINT BALLADO (CAN) x UNBRIDLED

I have touched several times on how poor Mineshaft is as a sire and how in truth that was very likely to happen based on his racing record. He was likely to be has proven to be and always will be skid material on turf. His stud fee has fallen once again for 2010 but looks very high indeed when compared against yearling averages. This filly is now seven and done very well over her lifetime. She has been running well in stakes races for most of the year she even won one on the back of two allowance wins in the summer. We all know there is a big gap between that and graded races. I therefore doubt at this point in her carrier she is likely to be much of a threat in this race.

NEED FIRE (FR) BALLINGARRY (IRE) x IRISH RIVER (FR) x LEAR FAN

This fillies sire is in his first season in real life. He has a couple of black type horses but no winners he is unlikely to be of any note in the long term. His major claim to fame he is a half brother to Starborough sire of Overdose the top horse from Eastern Europe in over fifty years. His dam is also the second dam of the best 2yo colt in the world this year. His sim record is far better than his real life record is ever likely to be. This horse was in great form racking up a very good winning streak even in graded races. Her last two runs have been below par and she is looking to bounce back to form here. The trip may be a little sharp for her but a return to mid summer form gives realistic chances of making the frame.

CACKLIN’ KRIS (KY) KINGMAMBO x LURE x KRIS S.

This filly has a good record with ten starts out of thirteen being first two finishes. Of the others one she was beaten two lengths and another she looked like she went wrong and finally did not stay thirteen furlongs. It is fair to say then her record is very good. She has won in stakes company and been placed in graded races. The trip looks like it should suit as well. In my opinion it would appear she has a decent chance of making the frame or better.

NAUGHTY BUT NICE (IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x MILL REEF x ROBERTO

This fillies sire is the leading sire world wide by number of individual graded winners in real life. He has three of the four best two year old colts in the world this year as well. He appears to be and looks likely to remain to be one of the top five sires in the world for the foreseeable future. He is in need of a better sim ranking whilst others require downgrading. This horse is a graded winner but as her breeding would suggest better at 12f mind that is not always the case with her sire in the sim. Her recent form has been a little lackluster as can happen in both the sim and in real life with horses that have done well in the summer. She has to bounce back to form and like the shorter trip to be a factor here which is a lot to ask.

K’S SOPHISTICATED (IRE) SADLER’S WELLS x SEATTLE SLEW x NUREYEV

This mare’s sire is the best the world has seen since his dad before him. The Nureyev on the end adds extra luster to the breeding though the middle would lead you to believe on all known evidence the horse would be useless. Seattle Slew for all his ability as a dirt sire was not very good to say the least on the turf, poor would be a better word to use. This horse likes the trip has graded form and wins at and around this trip as well. A repeat of her run in July would give the mare excellent prospects in this race.

CONSECRATE (IRE) TEOFILO x KINGMAMBO x BLUSHING GROOM (FR)

This horse’s sire was an excellent two year old but then did not race again. It is fair to say in recent years sires with this profile have not done so well at stud overall. If we combine that fact with his sires champion two year old and better race horse and then classic winner from the following crop in New Approach you would have to think his long term future will not be that fantastic. Looking at the record of this horse not having broken 90 in her last seven starts it would take a lot of weetabix to get this horse to win in this field.

DEPTH CHARGER (JPN) DEEP IMPACT x DIESIS (GB) x COZZENE

This is the only horse bred in Japan in this race. I have to say without looking at the form I hope this horse wins for the sake of authenticity if nothing else. The filly has an excellent overall race record. She has only one bad run which was by the looks of it down to the trip. She is a graded winner likes the trip ahs been getting plenty of triple digit speed figures. It would appear she has a great chance and I will be hoping that it is proven on Saturday.

CRYING SKY (KY) STREET CRY (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS x ROBERTO

Street Cry is a sire how has done well in certain places and not others. His turf record outside of Australia is not great. There are serious issues with the temperament of his offspring as well. He has done well with his runners in North America though. The instinct would be that they are poor travelers this is usually down to mental aspects. Outside of the USA most horses travel to the race track on the day of the race. This filly is improving and is a three year old all positive factors. The negatives are she was beaten in a stakes race last time and steps up in class again. I will pass her over as she still ahs something to prove at present that is not to say she will not prove it in time.

MARVELOUS MIA (ENG) RAINBOW QUEST x MR. PROSPECTOR x ROBERTO

The obvious thing to say here is wow this horse has not been attacked by wear and tear yet. Rainbow Quest has a reputation for unsound horses not always but more than most sires. Roberto is known for bad backs and Mr. Prospector’s stock are not always robust. There is though a lot of class in the breeding to balance this out. With this kind of breeding it is of no wonder real life horses do not take much racing. This filly is on the upgrade she has liked the switch to 10 furlongs which as seen her win her last two races. This looks a good spot to try graded company at this trip. She appears to have a very good chance of making the frame in this race.

TROUBLE MY WAY (KY) AWESOME AGAIN x SEATTLE SLEW x SIR IVOR

My opinions on Awesome Again are well documented he has received a massive drop in his stallion fee but is still grossly over priced. He only has two graded wins by his offspring to his name in 2009 and his turf horses are skid class. He needs a drop in his sim ability in the region of 70% to get to near where he should be. This horse would have no chance in real life with Seattle Slew as a dam sire with Awesome Again. This though is the sim. The horse has been running well since put on turf running good speed figures and only being beaten once. The major negative is this is the shortest trip she has raced on the turf. If the trip s not a problem she should be in the shake up in this field.

IDIDNTMEANTOO (ENG) PIVOTAL (GB) x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x SEATTLE SLEW

This is the third horse in the race with Seattle Slew in the breeding I expect to be hit at any second by a swarm of flying pigs any second. The fact is Danehill has never appeared in this field he was a better sire and is already producing a better record as a broodmare sire and on turf batters Seattle Slew as Seattle Slew would do to him on dirt. Pivotal continues to do well as a sire he has had a couple of grade 1 winners again in 2009 and has been the sire of the winners of 25 grade 1 races world wide now since 2000. This filly loves an off track which is not much help here. She has decent form and if running as she has of late can make the frame in this race.

As for my selection:-

1, Depth Charger, because she just should
2, Marvelous Mia on the upgrade should do well
3 K’s Sophisticated always there about in this type of race