The two year olds get to chase Graded glory this week in New York. The Nashua Special is a mile feature, to be conducted on a fast dirt surface, and carrying a prize pool of $150,000. It’s a full field to line up and, as indicated in the early market, an absolute nightmare for punters. How even is the field? You can have 5/1 about the favorite, Any Given Cat, but he’s hotly pursued by another five runners in single figure odds, while the three outsiders will only return around 20 times your initial outlay.
The early market is:
5/1 – Any Given Cat
7/1 – Bushwacked Ted, Bigtime Favorite, Sisson’s Whiskers
9/1 – Tizjazz, Clouseau,
10/1 – Doomadgee
11/1 – Dafreedyduh, Woette’s Pot
13/1 – Monumental Moment
14/1 – Super Crook
18/1 – Pinchingdale
19/1 – Rapper’s Delight
22/1 – Warrioronweekends
Looking through the runners in betting order:
5/1 – # 6 – Any Given Cat – He’s clearly earned the right to be top pick in the betting, based on his excellent form in his first seven runs. It’s the eighth run, however, which provides the conundrum regarding his chances. Was he just ‘due’ to put in a sub par run? or is he destined to be a sprinter? The fact that his latest was his first route, and his worst ever run, will give his opponents plenty of cause to believe he can be beaten. This scratchbred son of Any Given Saturday / Tale of the Cat / Capote has heaps of early speed and that may be a major factor, with three runners likely to contest the early pace. Invasorstc will be hoping the last race was an anomaly. It will make for interesting viewing.
7/1 – # 7 – Bushwacked Ted – The second favorite has had three attempts at route racing without winning. But that’s being way too harsh. With two graded placings from those three runs, and a Grade 1 fourth last time out, he’s racing very well at a consistent level against quality opposition. There are a couple of concerns with this colt. His two wins were both all the way leading efforts in sprints, and there’s too much early pace here to expect him to want the front. And he’s been fading a tad at the end of those longer races. Still, he’s running good times, getting better with experience, and he’s had a tilt at the highest level. All positives. Bushwackedted is a son of Official Flame, from Blushing Red T (Gone West / Blushing Groom), the second foal of a winner of three. Trainer Pup is presumably looking to build a Derby colt, and this race will go a long way towards framing his future.
7/1 – # 8 – Bigtime Favorite – Equal second in the betting, and like the other two at the top of the market, he’s still got a question mark next to his staying credentials. Most impressive in his maiden, allowance and Grade 2 sprint wins in consecutive races, he couldn’t keep up the winning form at his first route run. That’s the negative scenario. A closer look at that last start, and he’s plugged on gamely in the G1-Paramus Mile, sticking to his task as many folded around him. Bigtime Favorite is a scratchbred son of Ghostzapper / Storm Cat / Danzig. Axemjack86 knows he’s got a good horse, and the earlier topline experience bodes well for this.
7/1 – # 12 – Sisson’s Whiskers – This bloke ticks the biggest box of all in relation to this event. He’s a Grade 1 winner. Add to that, the fact that he’s never missed the podium in half a dozen starts, he’s banked almost as much as the favorite, and he’s finishing off his races in a manner which suggests he’ll relish the extra ground. Want more to like? There’s going to be a suicidal rush for the lead, and he’s not going to be part of it. Taking everything into consideration, the 7/1 on offer looks generous. Sisson’s Whiskers is a son of Flower Alley from Adam’s Cat (Storm Cat / Raise a Native). He’s the seventh foal of a prodigious mare, and the fifth of them to register black type. Support the Binzastc entry with confidence
9/1 – # 1 – Tizzjazz – The most lightly raced runner in the field has plenty to offer in terms of chances. He’s drawn the perfect barrier, which will suit his front running style. He’s won a route, a statistic he shares with just four other runners, and he’s getting better with every run. True, the huge speed rating boosts don’t go on forever, but if he maintains the curve for this one more time, he’ll be nudging triple digits in this, and that will see him in the mix. There are a couple of concerns. The early charge, with at least three runners vying for early supremacy, is going to result in casualties, and while many of his opponents have won black type races, this bloke fell a tad short at his first attempt. Tizzjazz is a scratchbred son of Jazil / Tiznow / Unbridled’s Song. Invasor will be watching the first furlong with trepidation, but may be watching the final furlong with excitement.
9/1 – # 4 – Clouseau – He’s had an ideal preparation for a race of this type, having had his last three runs over the route trips, and registering a Graded podium finish at his latest outing. Returned to allowances after an indifferent early foray into the black type, the experience has stood him in good stead, and his second trip to the higher level produced a far more promising result. Looking for concerns, he’s going to get a long way out of his ground in a race which features plenty of speed. He’s going to have many lengths to make up at the business end and, judging by his last run, he may be looking for even longer to produce his best. Clouseau is a scratchbred son of Curlin / Seattle Slew / Nijinsky. Flagdown and stable supporters will relish the 9/1 on offer, and opposing jockeys won’t be comfortable if they see him storming home
10/1 – # 5 – Doomadgee – You’ve just gotta love an animal named after one of the most remote communities in outback Australia. And, he’s got a bit more than just his name going for him. Two wins and two seconds from four is far from shabby. The odds on offer are probably a fair reflection of his chances in this race, given that he has a number of questions to answer. We’ve already mention the likely speed battle which is sure to occur here. This bloke likes to lead, but he won’t be getting a soft run this week. He’s facing a route for the first time. His blood says he’ll like it, but his racing pattern leaves a query. When it comes to class, there’s no question. While his speed numbers may be a tad shy of some of the others, he’s a placegetter at Grade 2 level, and that’s a bonus. Doomadgee is a son of Smarty Jones, based on the stakeswinning Any Chance (Sadler’s Wells / Seattle Slew). A top run will not surprise Bulddog, or anybody else.
11/1 – # 3 – Dafreddyduh – We’re getting into the longer priced brigade, and this runner is perhaps the first we’ve seen who needs a change of fortunes. He’s a stakeswinner, which is a positive. But he’s another contender for the ‘must lead’ brigade, and he hasn’t finished off his last couple in inspiring fashion. He’s had the two attempts at Graded company, and been unplaced both times. ‘Pattern’ punters can find a reason for hope. He wins one, then runs unplaced twice. That pattern means it time to win. Dafreddyduh is a son of Gulch, from Winofreda (Sadler’s Wells / Twining), first offspring of a winner of one from twenty. Dodafreddy will be hoping for the turnaround. I feel it’s a big ask.
11/1 – # 14 – Woettes Pott – If there’s one thing this colt can’t be accused of, it’s lack of ambition. Showing no fear from the outset, he took on and beat 17 rivals in allowance class at his debut run, then proceeded to tackle Grade 2 competition at each of his next three. And the results haven’t been bad, either. Sure, just the one placing, but he took home consolation checks at the other two. I like the way he finished off last time out. First start in a route is always a lottery, but he did look like he’d appreciate the extra furlong. There’s nothing wrong with his speed ratings either, they’re still improving at every outing. Woette’s Pott is a son of Dehere from Moraime (Fusaichi Pegasus / Danzig). Older half sister Woette’s Walk (A.P. Indy) is a black type winner, and Katinka has every reason to expect this one to join the party.
13/1 – # 2 – Monumental Moment – They don’t come much more consistent than six wins and a second from seven starts, and he’s proven over the trip. That statement alone makes the price look very tempting. Why so generous? Well, he hasn’t posted flash times, and he’s done all his racing in a restricted allowance series. Still, there are no bonuses for winning margins, or flashy times, so there’s no reason to do more than necessary. Monumental Moment is a son of Dynomania from Singforthemoment (Unbridled’s Song / Alydar), second foal of a well traveled, useful mare. Selurnivek and friends are possibly laughing as they line up to invest their money. The colt has questions to answer, but as he’s answered every question posed thus far, it would be foolish to underestimate his chances
14/1 – # 13 – Super Crook – Here’s another who’s done enough to deserve more respect than he’s being shown in the betting ring. True, his speed figure aren’t as impressive as many of those ranked above him in the market, but that last run was better than the ninth of fourteen might suggest. Beaten less than four lengths, and now returning to a Grade 3 mile, where he ran a top three the start before, connections are sure to take a slice of the odds on offer. He’s only won to allowance level, but the Grade 3 placing, and the route win, are stats not matched by too many opponents. Super Crook is a son of Awesome Spirit, from Featherie (Ten Most Wanted / Cannonade). He’s the first foal of a mare who had fourteen trainers in her racing career. I can’t put him into my top chances, but I won’t be surprised if he gives Redhatcat a really exciting race.
18/1 – # 11 – Pinchingdale – Now, here’s a smokey for those chasing a bit of value. What’s wrong with his form? In a word…nothing. Two wins from four. Grade 1 placed at his latest outing. Speed figures improving by at least six points every time he goes to the track, and he’s finishing off his races in a manner which indicates he’ll have no trouble with the journey. Pinchingdale is not the most fashionably bred runner in the race, being by the somewhat underrated Graeme Hall, with Blushing Groom (nothing wrong there) and Diamond Prospect making up the balance of the scratch breeding. He’s only won an allowance, and he’s never raced in a route, but this Bluefox runner represents possibly the best punting value in the event
19/1 – # 9 – Rapper’s Delight – He’s a stakeswinner last start, so clearly he’s not entirely without a chance. But it’s the run before which causes concern. It was his first attempt at the mile, and he was found badly lacking, never getting into the race before going down by nine lengths. And it was in allowance company. The thirteen point jump in speed ratings will give Worldwide faith that there may be more to come, but serious assessors are not likely to be equally confident. Rapper’s Delight is a son of Pivotal, from Wheels of Steel (Cryptoclearance / El Gran Senor). Mum was a regular in black type events, winning three and placing up to Grade 2 standard. Her best form was in shorter races. I feel this bloke will follow family tradition.
22/1 – # 10 – Warrioronweekends – The only filly in the race, this girl looks to be tilting at windmills. But… there was plenty to like in that most recent effort. It took half a dozen runs for her to break her maiden, after which she looked basically an allowance quality runner. But then came that significant spike in the numbers last time out. Only an allowance, but it was over the mile, and she worked home impressively. Warrioronweekends is a daughter of A.P. Warrior, based on Isle of Lucy (Johannesburg / Twining), a moderately performed winner of six races. The Lgbost5b filly won’t run last, as her price suggests. She’ll be working home late, but I feel there’ll be too much talent ahead of her
Summary: A tough race, and as we’d expect in an early two year old classic, anything could probably happen. Many of the runners are tackling the route trip for the first time, and many are lifting in class. The early charge is sure to break some hearts, possibly setting up the event for the swoopers. Anyway, to the selections
Selections:
Sisson’s Whiskers – Ticks all the boxes.
Pitchindale – Across the board value like this doesn’t appear every day
Doomadgee – Just cos I’ve been there