Little Guppy Classic

The running of the Little Guppy Classic has drawn a field of 11 and has a purse of $250,000. Ironically, the field will be running 11 furlongs. The race is open to all horses aged 3 and up, and looks to be tightly contested. So much so, the oddmakers have nearly half the field posted at either 5-1 or 6-1. One filly is entered into the race, Flammen Sehen, who is the morning line favorite at 9-2. Let’s see if she can outrun the boys on the grass….

1. Appian Gold 6-1

Appian may very well be the pace setter in this race and make a bid to go gate-to-wire. His effort to do this won’t be easy, as there are other early runners in the race. Appian last won in early January, where he went 11f in a speed of 104. The speed is good enough to beat these, but Appian isin’t consistently surpassing this threshold. But that’s not too bad, as no other competitor in the race hits the 100-level with regular reliability. Appian drew jockey Barlow who has one win in 20 starts, no help with the rider.

2. Flammen Sehen 9-2

Flammen has won 7 of 14 turf starts, of which 4 have been at distances of 11 furlongs. She loves the distance and is coming off an allowance win in a speed of 108 that she won with ease against a small field. She won the G2 Spankie-Sho All Comers in a speed of 112. She has a shot to beat the boys in this race and will be charging towards the lead late in the race. Riding in the saddle is ever-dangerous jockey Zeus (30% win).

3. Elusive Riley 7-1

Elusive Riley has a peculiar record of 10-1-9 in 29 turf starts. The one place sticks out as an oddity between the high number of wins and shows. The sole place just occurred in his last outing, a 12f non-graded stakes race where he challenged early and finished 5 lengths back. Elusive is winless in his last 8 starts and needs to be running near the front early on to have a chance.

4. Good to be King 12-1

Good to be King needs to pull out his best stuff. He ships out to Spain from the states where he just collected a pair of seconds in allowance races going distances of 11 and 16 furlongs. His speeds are not up to par, as he charted a 94 and 87 in these races. Good to be King hasn’t posted a speed above 100 since last July and his last win was back in the middle of 2007. He has his work cut out for himself.

5. Eightyseventh 10-1

Eightyseventh will be running near the rear of the field early on. He has a late kick that makes him an upset candidate. His late run doesn’t always fire up, as is evidenced by his last two starts, finishing 7th and 8th. However, in early January, Eightyseventh came from 11 back to run away to a 3 length victory. His speeds have been sub-100 level of late, but he does have the ability to come through. He’s worth a look.

6. T.M. Ratto 12-1

In 30 career starts, T.M. Ratto has been able to reach the 100-speed level only twice. He has some early speed, but I don’t seem him setting the pace. Rather, he’ll be sitting back perhaps forth, which isin’t a bad spot. His speed numbers just don’t seem to add up to a winner in this field. If he shows some patience, and lay back, maybe a stunning strike late will steal the race.

7. Sadler’s Prayer 7-1

Sadler’s Prayer has been showing signs of improvement over the past year. On the grass, he’s been in the money 20 of 25 starts, winning a mere 4 times. He’s breached the 100-level a handful of times and should be running near the front end in this race. Sadler’s Prayer has potential, however, he has limited stake race experience. He has only two career stake starts, he has yet to hit the board. Sadler’s has just recently been moved up to long routes (10f and up) and been doing well. He will be interesting to watch!

8. Stared Immortality 7-1

Stared is coming off a career best speed of 106 going 11f against allowance. This was his first race posted over 100, and a nice break-through it was! As a reward, Stared Immortality is being bumped up into his first stake race. He has been racing well, hitting the board 17 of 29 times. As a side note, a third of his races have been against fields of 5 or less, which makes some of the numbers look better. Stared’s last race shows promise. I’m taking a pass on him as I’d like to see how he responds to the leap in class.

9. Kafziel Tete 6-1

Kafziel Tete has won 8 races and has been in the money 16 of 25 grass starts. Kafziel has tons of early speed and will be rocketing to battle for the top spot. His speeds have been in the upper 90’s to low 100’s. He has struggled lately in his attempts to wire the field. Since 2008, he’s won only 2 of 13 starts and it looks doubtful to me that he’ll beat this field.

10. Katie’s Oak 9-1

Katie’s Oak has been showing good form of late, winning 3 of his last 4 races. A career mark of 103 was set last time on the track going 12f against allowance. He has only one other race where he broke the 100-speed level, which was last August. Katie likes the turf as shown in the 21 of 31 being on the board. Katie has struggled in stake races, with three starts with a 3rd being the best finish. Katie’s Oak will be making an effort to get the early lead, and I think that winless Jockey Zerr will have to settle her back to about the 3rd position. Katie’s Oak will need to pull out one of those rare 100-speed races to get the glory in this race. Jockey Zerr adds nothing special to her chances.

11. Dyna Magic 9-1

Dyna Magic will join the battle to get the lead and stands a chance of doing so. Dyna had won 3 races in a row, which was enough to move up from the allowance level to the G2 Kyoto Handicap. He wasn’t able to get to the front end in that race and finished well back. Dyna is good on the grass, 17 of 24 on the board. However, the 100-speed threshold has been hard for him to achieve, doing this only twice in his career. He’s already got a handicap coming into the race and that is having jockey Mato (4% win) taking the mount.

It is a tough field to pick through. Several entrants have limited stake race experience. Others struggle with the 100-speed level, which I feel is strongly needed to be the champion in this race. I’m giving the edge to the lady in the race, Flammen Sehen. There will be a battle for the early lead which may work to the advantage of her late speed. She has a top jockey aboard and it looks like a winning match.

Appian Gold doesn’t have the best jockey in town, but has early speed and has shown in the past that he’s able to keep enough in his tank to finish the race.

Eightyseventh is a longshot that can pay out a pretty penny. He has shown late speed that can run down the front runners…that is if he fires up. He has the talented jockey Monk (17% win) aboard for the ride. Timing is the key factor on his success.