Nothing Hot Here – Half the Field Looks Cool

The Coolmore
Grade II
Seven and half furlongs
Firm Turf
$500,000
Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up

1 FAIR GO(NZ)

Owner: thematrix
Record: 17-9-5-2
Earnings: $1,249,650
Jockey: D Evans
Odds: 7/1   

All this one wants is a fair go after having 2 wins at Stakes level in her last 4 runs but especially and maybe most importantly because of her G1 win in the Pheasants Forever over 6 furlongs back in August last year.  Ok it was a restricted race but still a good run.  5 days before christmas last she ran 2nd in he G1 Mumtaz Mahal Handicap probably losing her way a little after hitting the lead briefly.  This is over 7 1/2 furlongs so I think the distance is going to be a little too long.  I think she will be up there early but then gracefully fade as the race goes on.
 
2 SJ’S SJ(KY)

Owner: booberry
Record: 27-8-5-2
Earnings: $949,295
Jockey: R Bailey
Odds: 6/1

Running well at Stakes level which is well and good but this is a bit harder here. Seemed to lose her way on her last run and wasn’t up to speed either. In fact she will be well off the pace here if she repeats that effort.  Bit up and down in form maybe more of a moody horse this one.  Moody horse moody run.  Maybe.  Hard to see her winning here though – more likely will run around the track, wave to the crowds, enjoy the atmosphere and finish midfield.
   
3 RED ROCK LASS

Owner: beisbol
Record: 35-12-10-4
Earnings: $365,174
Jockey: B Couzens
Odds: 7/2   

Favourite of the race and you can see why.  Consistent.  She is certainly a rock all right with consistent runs at Stakes level finishing top 3 usually. Last graded race was back in Sep, a G1 too over 8 furlongs but she was fading at the end and finished fifth. While ago now that race and this is probably a touch easier – certainly so far considering the first two runners.  You would expect her to be in the top 3 across the line.
 
4 IT’S AFFIRMED(ENG)

Owner: dafarms
Record: 17-6-4-2
Earnings: $344,131
Jockey: T Nichols
Odds: 18/1  

Long shot this one.  Few in this race I think.  Hasn’t really done a terrible lot to write home about. Last run was good in Allowance company but was slipping back in the straight and that was the same distance as here.  Only this will be much harder.  I think she will struggle and that’s putting it nicely.  To put it bluntly she will be out the back quicker than the caller says “And they’re off!”.

  
5 DANEHILL SEEKER(IRE)

Owner: trotter5
Record: 19-9-2-2
Earnings: $408,930
Jockey: N Hartel
Odds: 6/1   

Has been running well at Stakes in fact very much so with three recent wins out of her last 4 outings.  This a little harder here.  Has run in Graded company before but not for a while – at least 6 months anyway.  Certainly in form and one of the ones to watch to see if she can step up here.
 
6 LEAVE IT AND GO(ENG)

Owner: mav1763
Record: 15-5-7-0
Earnings: $141,955
Jockey: P Spratt
Odds: 7/1  

Used to finishing in the top 2 and has done that 12 out of her 15 outings in her career to date.  Pretty impressive strike rate.  Also in top form after two consecutive wins at Allowance and last time out at Stakes.  Last run was particularly good over 7 furlongs with a speed of 111.  Led the whole way. Might be able to go the distance here just but I would say her limit is definitely 7.5 furlongs if not 7.  Should be a chance though.
 
7 JUNIOR ACHIEVER(KY)

Owner: simon1966
Record: 25-8-9-4
Earnings: $503,236
Jockey: S Dubrich
Odds: 6/1    

Odds would suggest she is right in there for a top 3 finish but I seriously doubt it.  Was in good form late last year but she appears to have dropped off of late.  Has a tendency to not want to go on with it in the final stretch and seems to fade more often than not approaching the line.  I think she will struggle to beat the long shot I think and that’s saying something!

8 FREUDIAN HUMOR(NY)

Owner: smoken
Record: 22-5-3-3
Earnings: $138,574
Jockey: W Thomas
Odds: 16/1

Wow we seem to get slower the more we go through this field.  Second long shot and deservedly so.  Am surprised to see her running at this level to be honest.  She ran in a G1 last time out but was never going to threaten.  In fact I think she would be far better running over a much longer distance out to 9 or 10 furlongs.  Could be a real goer at that distance I think.  She has won at 10 furlongs too in an Allowance so I’d definitely keep her there if she were mine.  Too hard and too short for her here.  
   
9 CRIME BEAT(IRE)

Owner: lenny4
Record: 20-9-2-2
Earnings: $720,100
Jockey: J Kohlmorgen
Odds: 5/1 

One that looks like she can take these out!!!  Last run was great over 7.5 furlongs running second by a mere short nose. Speed of 107 which means she is a good 20 to 30 ratings faster than 3/4 of this field with that run!!! Definite top 3 finish here for this one – only question mark is the distance too short?  Probably but she will still finish fast and well in this field.
  
10 IN DEEP SPACE(IRE)

Owner: redcar
Record: 11-7-1-1
Earnings: $138,460
Jockey: G Aggulotto
Odds: 7/1    

Hasn’t raced much – only 11 outings.  7 of those have been wins though and she looks good I have to say.  Another with a genuine chance here in what is really a slow field apart from about 4 runners.  Her distance looks about 6.5 to 7 furlongs so will have to see if she can hold on here at 7.5.  Worth backing though!