Full Field of Fillies Down under
PP1-KHAI MACHI(KY)-8/1, (confessor2) 7-4-2-1 175K
First up we have a scratch bred daughter of Mineshaft out of a Northern Dancer mare. This lass has been doing most of her work lately on the dirt but returns to the turf after three on the dirt. She started on the turf and was quite successful, so the switch back is a non factor. 8.5 furlongs has been her longest outing, but her breeding suggests she will be fine going 10f. What does need to happen though, is a pace duel out front. She does her best work coming late, but needs that to be set up by some early speed. There is some speed in this race, so she might just get her wish. Certainly has a shot here this week. She has three wins to her credit, although they have been in short fields. In her stakes losses she has been flying at the end, but has come up just short. Predicted finish- 5th Will be picking off tired horses at the end, but may not have the speed figures to run with this crowd.
Pace: Deep closer, she will not be close early.
PP2- DYNACLASSIC(JPN)-21/1, (cooma1) 8-2-2-0 72K
Next we have the product of a Dynaformer mare (G-rated) and Stravinsky. This young lady has yet to win a stakes race, but is coming off of a conditioned allowance race. She has gone faster as the races have gotten longer, but has yet to crack a 90+ speed figure and it might take a 100+ to win this race. She seems to be on the improve, but this is probably too much at this stage of her career. A dedicated front runner, she has won both times she has been able to grab the early lead, but there are some faster horses here this week and I do not see her getting away from anybody. Predicted finish- 10th Will be near the front early, but lack of past big race experience will hurt. Her best days are in the future.
Pace: Front runner, will try to grab the lead, but there race faster horses here.
PP3- ARTISTE(KY)-9/2, (super7) 10-5-3-0 334K
In the three hole we have the morning line favorite who is a daughter of Ghostzapper out of a Cryptoclearance mare (A-rated). Now this lady has been on quite a tear as of late winning her last four races, the last two were of the graded stakes variety. Her last effort of a 102 speed figure at nine furlongs puts the bulls eye squarely on her back as the horse to beat. There is no doubt that she is the class of this field, but could be looking at a bounce this week. Actually she will bounce, but that may not matter as her B game might be good enough to win anyways. She needs some pace up front as she is a deep closer and will be a mile back early. With a horse that likes to come from the clouds there is always the danger of letting a horse steal a win. With the expected bounce I think she gets too far back early and doesn’t quite get to the early speed. Predicted finish– 2nd she is the best horse but she has to bounce right??? RIGHT???
Pace: Deep closer, will be a mile back early.
PP4- SALUTE THE OIL(AUS)-6/1, (lordpye5) 9-4-1-1 119K
Next up we have a daughter of Redoute’s Choice out of an E-rated Charasmatic mare. I really like this horse in this spot. Her 98 speed figure last time out at 9.5 furlongs puts her in the top of the class in this race and she has a very nice flexible running style. She can get the front if there is a soft pace but will most likely be stalking a somewhat hot early pace. She had one previous graded stakes race which was less than impressive, but we can toss that race and blame it on the off turf track. Her last race was against some weakish competition in a short field so it is possible that I am reading too much into that race. She also has the added bonus of being able close also which may come in handy if a crazy speed duel breaks out, and that is a distinct possibility. Not as talented as Artiste, but the race sets up perfect for her. Predicted finish- 1st, perfect set up.
Pace: Stalker is what she does best but could be anywhere depending on the pace.
PP5-
We have the combination of Johannesburg and a Danehill mare (B-rated) up next in the five spot. This young lady is coming off of a second place finish in a listed stakes race at 9.5f. That is good. She finished in a six horse field with a speed figure of 85, that is bad. This is a filly that might actually like some more distance, like 12 or 14 I think. She is a bit of a plodder that is not real fast, not real slow, but has difficulty making much of a move at all in a race. Most likely a bit overwhelmed this week. She should be about middle of the pack early, but will not do much down the stretch. Pretty tough spot to put a young horse in with nothing other than a maiden win to fall back on. Predicted finish- 13th, Just don’t see how this can end well.
Pace: Middle of the pack, will be cruising in the pack early.
PP6- AS YOU LIKE IT(KY)-12/1, (udhens) 8-5-1-2 205K
Breaking from post six we have a daughter of Shakespeare out of a Danehill mare (D-rated). This is an intriguing filly. She has shown brilliant speed in the past, and been able to finish well, and jumped up speed wise after going longer with a 95. The rub in all of this however, is she has been racing in very short fields on uncontested leads. She has won once stalking, but is generally a speed ball, but most likely will not be the fastest horse this week. On paper this horse looks very impressive, but I think she will struggle in a full field for the first time. Do not get me wrong, this horse has a shot and certainly could win, but I don’t think so. This is an improving horse that is getting better as the distance is getting longer. I expect great things in the future, but just not quite seasoned enough this week.
Predicted finish- 7th this is a tough call, could be first could be tenth. Better finishes in the future.
Pace: Front runner, can stalk but will certainly be on or near the lead.
PP7- EXXOTIC DANCER(ENG)-16/1, (quikvett1) 10-3-1-0 46K
Next up we have a daughter of Lebettist out of a Coronado’s Quest mare (D-rated) that is coming off of an allowance win at a mile. The 88 speed figure she had puts her in a situation that she is going to have to top this career best by about 10 stretching out to ten furlongs, and that is a very tall order. In looking at this girl’s past performances it seems she might be a sprinter. While she started wining when switched to turf it looks like he short distances speeds are consistently better than her routing starts. She normally is a closer, but can stay relatively close if there is no pace, but that should not be an issue. The one stakes start she did have ended in a lackluster fifth out of eight. I think this horse becomes a beast at seven furlongs, but ten furlongs looks like a bit longer than she wants to go. Predicted finish-12th a distance she will not appreciate.
Pace: Closer, should be seven or eight back early.
PP8- COCKTAIL HOUR(KY)-8/1, (super20) 10-5-1-1 137K
Next we have a scratch bred filly out of War Chant and a Fappiano mare. This is a very nice young lady that won for fun last time out at 9.5 furlongs with a tasty 95 speed figure. Once again this comes with a caveat. The 95 was in a four horse field, and is by far her best speed figure. She has yet to win a race with over seven horses finding the starting gate, and that could be a problem. She should love the distance, and is a major player this week, but I have a hard time trusting her. While she has won her last two races pretty easy, she has only beat a total of six horses. The fact is, it is time to see exactly how good this one is. Could be great, could be a pretender, and frankly I am not sure which it really is. My gut tells me she is not going to like a full field and will wilt late. Should be back a good ways and will be coming late, but of the deep closers she is only third best. In another week she would be a favorite in this race, but this week she is just another really good horse in a field full of em. Predicted finish- 6th Will be passing some tired horses late.
Pace: Closer, will be in the back, and moving late, but not the best deep closer this week.
PP9- JOHANNIE CARA(KY)-9/1, (zambaygo) 11-4-2-0 142K
In post nine we have a daughter of Arch out of a Ghoastzapper mare (G-rated) that is coming off of a thrashing in the GII Jockey Club Oaks in Hong Kong. She was no match for today’s morning line favorite. I do not see anything that makes me think that anything has changed. She has run in two graded stakes and it is the same scenario both times. She simply drops out of contention early and can not get into the race. In races that are not so competitive she is able to stay closer to the lead and can make a solid run late. This week looks like the same song. There is some serious speed this week, and she will probably be out of the race by the second call. It is imperative that she stay within seven early this week if she wants to have any shot at all. Her top speed is a 90, but for the most part runs in the upper 80’s. This is a pretty tall order for this one at this time. She is going to have to throw a freakish performance to have a shot. Might be picking off some tired horses late, but no real threat to win. Predicted finish- 8th needs to stay closer than she has been in big races.
Pace: Closer and not nearly the best one.
PP10- RARE GREEN RUBY(ENG)-14/1, (fastracing) 10-4-2-0 141K
The Ruby is a daughter of Green Desert out of Rock of Gibraltar mare (E-rated) coming off of a stakes win at a mile. She has won at nine furlongs, and won by seven, but it was in a four horse field and only ran a 77 speed figure. What to make of this? An Interesting question that I do not have a good answer for. I would say that this one is a miler that won going longer against a weak field. This poor girl does not have as much have a family tree as a family trunk having Danzig in every line. I do no for see her liking ten furlongs much, and probably will be backing up down the stretch. This is not a ten furlong pedigree, it is a miler pedigree and I think she will find success at that distance. Predicted finish- 11th, Talented filly that is going longer than she wants to.
Pace: Closer, but will not be real far back.
PP11- CATCH THAT MONTE(IRE)-9/1, (monte1) 6-4-1-0 153K
Next we have a horse trained by yours truly. She is a daughter of Tiger Hill out of a Black Tie Affair he-mare (C-rated). This will be her second attempt at graded company, and the idiot trainer put her in a GI at one mile when her longest race had been 6.5 furlongs…BRILLIANT. She has won both stalking and front running, but of the front runner she is the only one to do it in a full field in stakes company. He last race she got away by five early and the race was over at that point posting a 98 speed figure. If she gets away that much again, it will be over again, but there is enough speed in this race that will most likely not happen. The question is if she will get ten furlongs. I do not think so personally as she just does not have the breeding for it. Probably the best of the speed horse and will get caught late, but should have enough class to hang on for show. Predicted finish- 3rd, too much speed in this race for a steal.
Pace: Front runner, but can sit off an insane early pace.
PP12- ENCOSTACAT(AUS)-6/1, (muninn240) 10-2-3-2 105K
Next up we have a scratch bred daughter of Encosta De Lago out of a Storm Cat mare. This is the biggest wildcard in the race. Of her ten starts she has nada on the turf. She has yet to score a stakes victory on the dirt, but her breeding screams turf and she should move up significantly. In her two wins she has been close to the lead, but has been further back as the competition improves. I think on the turf she will show more speed, but I am only guessing really. Predicted finish- 4th Take a flyer on this one moving up on the turf.
Pace: Mid pack, should close to the front, but not right on the lead.
PP13- PP-O TWO(KY)-38/1, (honeylu2) 12-3-2-2 133K
In the thirteen post we have a daughter of Mr. Greely out of an Awesome Cat mare (D-rated). Well. Where do I start? This lady has won two stakes races in four horse field not yet breaking 80 in speed figures. There simply is not much this one can do against this field. This is a solid allowance hose that can be competitive at that level, but this is simply too much at this point. She is normally near the back, but won’t be passing anybody this week. Needs to be placed in a better situation to be competitive. Predicted finish- 14th, not a good spot for this one.
Pace: Closer, will be back early.
PP14- TWICE AS LONG(KY)-11/1, (borrow4) 7-4-0-0 113K
Lastly we have a scratch bred daughter of Kingmambo out of a Danehill mare. This lady is coming off of a dominating allowance win at 9.5 furlongs with an 83 speed figure. She has hit 90 only once and that was at one mile. She does not seem to want this much distance but has won going long. She is going to have to top her career best speed figure by about eight to have a shot this week, and I do not see that happening. Her two cracks at graded company were less than impressive, but she is well bred, and has won some races. She is another closer which is a problem since she is not the best of that group. Looks like a middle of the pack finisher. Predicted finish- 9th, likes like she might be over her head this week.
Pace: Closer, will be coming from the back if she has a run against this group