Retired Mare Series – Sire Analysis

These statistics may not be as compelling as last week’s results. It may very well turn out that the best sires on this list are also the best sires of 2008. One of the most glaring omissions of this week’s article is the lack of a base line of data. Sires are compared to each other, but the retired mare statistics are not compared to sim-wide statistics for each individual sire. Therefore this may turn out to be merely a look at the 2008 years of sires in the sim, rather than a look at which sires perform better when breeding to mares and which sires perform better when scratch breeding.

With that said, there may very well be a difference when sires are used with retired mares versus being used for scratch breeding. And in the event that they are, this article will tell you which ones were the best with mares in 2008, which ones didn’t live up to expectations, and which ones you should try out on your newly retired horse.

Using only 2008 data, and based off of a list of active sim horses on January 9, 2009, there were 3,584 sires used on retired mare breedings (heretofore known as either “Existing Horse Sires” or simply just “Sires”). These 3,584 sires became the fathers of 54,625 sim horses. This means that on average, every sire had 15.25 children running in 2008.

Much like the Broodmare Sire Study last week, the Existing Horse Sire Study this week will be broken up into 5 different methods, in order to obtain the best possible results. One difference to note between this week’s study and last week’s study, though, is that the “Minimum” and “Maximum” qualifications have changed. Below are the 5 analyses performed.

• Pure numerical analysis (Raw data, rather than percentage data. A sire with more runners will likely have more winners, which will affect this data)
• Overall percentage analysis (Percentage data for all 3,920 broodmare sires. A sire with less runners will likely be in the extremes, closer to either 100% or 0%; Example: A sire with 1 race will have a 100% win percentage if the horse won, and a 0% win percentage if the horse lost)
• Minimum Qualification Percentage Analysis (Percentage data for 601 sires that had at least 15 active horses in 2008 and had at least 75 races run in 2008. A sire with less runners, which is below the average number of runners for 2008, will likely be in the extremes, closer to either 100% or 0%)
• Maximum Qualification Percentage Analysis (Percentage data for 352 sires that had at least 200 races run in 2008, regardless of the number of runners. This limits the impact of a small number of races, but restricts the overall data to the most popular sires)
• Combined Data (Will include various combinations of the previous 4 data; Methodology will be provided within the analysis)

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Pure Numerical Analysis

Methodology: Existing Horse sires were ranked from 1 to 50 in 6 categories. These 6 were Wins, ITM, Graded Wins, Graded ITM, Stakes Wins, and Stakes ITM. Ties were given the ranking of the highest tie (for example, if horses ranked 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th all had 7 wins, they were all given a 27^th ranking. 6 wins would then be ranked 30^th). Each horse was then given 50 points for every 1^st place ranking, 49 points for every 2^nd place ranking, and so on, down to 1 point for a 50^th place ranking. The points from each of the six categories were added up, and the horses were ranked based on this total.

Results: The first thing that caught my eye in these results is that Storm Cat, who I assumed would have the most races run, is actually 7^th in that ranking, trailing equally surprising leader Rahy by 140 races. That stat, in turn, shows that Rahy has put together a poor performance in 2008. The raw data should be skewed by number of races, as the more races run, the more wins that will occur. Ranking 18^th in this, as Rahy is, is not a good sign for his children.

But instead of starting with the negatives, let’s look at the positives. And what better way to start than at the top, with A.P. Indy. It should come as no surprise that the son of Seattle Slew is on top of this leaderboard; Nor should it come as a surprise that he ranks no worse than 4^th (ITM) in any of the 6 categories scored. His first place rankings come on the back of his stakes ability, as he ranks first in Stakes Wins, Stakes ITM, and Graded ITM. His best two children each have 3 Graded Stakes wins each for the year. The first is Eclipse Award nominee Non Negative(KY), a son of Opcon Only. Keely’s now-5yo horse scored victories in the G1 Bob Woodward Memorial and New Hampshire Handicap, while also capturing a G2 and 2 other stakes victories. The other 3-time Graded Stakes winner is squirrel’s A P Precedent, out of La Precedenta. A P Precedent won the G2 Mansur LeRoys Handicap, as well as another G2 and a G3 during the year.

Gone West and Unbridled’s Song, 3^rd and 4^th on the list, both surprised slightly by showing up this high, as they ranked 13^th and 19^th in total number of races in 2008, respectively. Gone West earns his ranking thanks to his stakes winners, in which he ties for first with 45. Ghost Whispers(KY), out of Sadie’s Ransom, a mare owned by Coker, is his biggest Graded Stakes winner, with three for owner trij. Ghost Whispers(KY) earned 2 G1 wins in the Devil’s Slide Handicap and the What A Sham, as well as 1 other Graded stakes win. His biggest stakes winners are West of the Red, out of lilbitfarm’s Girl Scout Cookie, and Lady By Day, out of Witch By Night and bred by michaelo. Unbridled’s Song’s ranking comes from the same categories as Gone West, as he earned 36 stakes wins to be ranked 4^th in the category. His big stakes winners are Stormcreeper(KY), out of Snowchief’s Storm Mouse (and Granddaughter of Sim Legend Storm Dog), and kingab’s Thor’s Odyssey(KY), son of Around The World. Each of these two have 4 stakes wins on the year, although none are Graded Stakes.

Several horses on this list are significantly higher ranked than their race total would imply. The highest ranked of sires at least 40 spots higher than their race ranking is Ghostzapper. Ranked 63rd in race total with 1,098 races during the year, he comes in at a stellar 13^th here. He is ranked no worse than 29^th in any of the 6 categories, with his best ranking of 7^th coming in the Stakes ITM total, with 80 ITM finishes. 8 of those, and 5 wins, come on the running ability of Mach Pelican(KY), out of Salubrious and owned by Adrian. His year also included 2 G3 places, en route to 6 wins in 12 races. Other sires that moved up at least 40 spots from their total race ranking include Montjeu(IRE) (58^th to 14^th), Crafty Prospector (91^st to 34^th), Roman Ruler (83^rd to 42^nd), Bluegrass Cat (116^th to 43^rd), Encosta De Lago(AUS) (99^th to 44^th), Tapit (96^th to 46^th), and Castledale(IRE) (129^th to 47^th).

For all the horses that have shown a surprising rise in the ranks, there are several who have also shown disappointing declines. The largest drop of the top 50 is Forest Wildcat, who fell from 17^th in 2008 races to 47^th on the raw data analysis. This is due mostly to his lack of Graded Stakes ITM finishes, as he has a mere 2 Graded Stakes wins and no places or shows in 1,427 races. His one saving grace is Jockeymax’s Mambo Wildcat(KY), out of Crimson Pirate, who earned his 2 graded stakes wins, one in the G1 Turf Invaders Stakes, at the tail end of the year. Others who dropped at least 10 spots from their race rank include Rahy (1^st to 18^th) Forestry (6^th to 22^nd), War Chant (10^th to 24^th), Red Ransom (3^rd to 26^th), Belong To Me (14^th to 32^nd), Sakhee (24^th to 49^th), and Street Cry(IRE) (33^rd to 50^th).

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Overall Percentage Analysis (also known as No Qualification Analysis)

Methodology: Sires were ranked from 1 to 100 in 6 categories. These 6 were Win Percentage (wins/races), ITM Percentage (ITM/races), Graded Win Percentage (GW/races), Graded ITM Percentage (G ITM/races), Stakes Win Percentage (SW/races), and Stakes ITM Percentage (S ITM/races). Ties were given the ranking of the highest tie (for example, if horses ranked 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th all had 70% wins, they were all given a 27^th ranking. 60% wins would then be ranked 30^th). Each horse was then given 100 points for every 1^st place ranking, 99 points for every 2^nd place ranking, and so on, down to 1 point for a 100^th place ranking. The points from each of the six categories were added up, and the horses were ranked based on this total.

Results: The leader in this category, High Octane, did so thanks to the record of Thea’s Dreamer(OK), Eirann’s now-3yo daughter of unowned Princess Murf (and before you go searching…she has already been bred this year). Thea’s Dreamer(OK) picked up 7 wins in 9 starts, including 6 stakes wins, one of which was a G3 race. This record propelled High Octane to the 2^nd ranked Graded Win % and Stakes Win %, while also accounting for 7 of his 8 wins.

Corinthian is the first on this list who also meets the minimum and maximum qualifications, but he will be discussed later. Looking a little further down for horses with at least 100 races, 2 stick out in 7^th ranked Gunpowder(AUS) and 11^th ranked Eckelson. Gunpowder(AUS) has 3 stakes winners in 22 horses, helping earn his #7 ranking. The only one who picked up a graded win (and four total stakes wins) was Bang Bang(AUS), out of Hawkz’s mare The Others. The G3 win came in the Dalesbark Cup. Eckelson, meanwhile, is ranked 3^rd in Graded Win percentage and 4^th in Graded ITM percentage. This is solely due to Ace’s Yasutora(CO), a son of The Seventh One, who picked up back-to-back G1 wins in the 2000 Guineas and the St. James Tavern, as well as a preceding G3.

The leading horse in Graded Winning percentage is Mark of Esteem(IRE), who has 4 wins in 179 starts. Those 4 wins (and one place) belong to the record of Sisson’s Mark(IRE), out of Jumbo A. P., an unowned mare (who has already been bred this season). The four wins for binzaman’s filly include the G1 lool Oaks, as well as 2 other G1s and a G2. The filly also ran fourth in the Bluegrass Oaks.

Storm Cat can be deemed the most disappointing here, as he falls from 5^th on the raw data list to 88^th here. Other surprisingly low ranked horses include Rainbow Quest (61st), Pleasantly Perfect (87^th), and Seeking The Gold (109^th).

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Minimum Qualification Percentage Analysis

Methodology: The list of sires was filtered down from the full 3,584 sires to only sires that had at least 15 active children (the average for existing horse sires) in the Sim as of January 9, 2009 and whose children had a combined total of at least 75 races. This limited the number of sires from 3,584 down to 601.

Sires were then ranked from 1 to 50 in 6 categories. These 6 were Win Percentage (wins/races), ITM Percentage (ITM/races), Graded Win Percentage (GW/races), Graded ITM Percentage (G ITM/races), Stakes Win Percentage (SW/races), and Stakes ITM Percentage (S ITM/races). Ties were given the ranking of the highest tie (for example, if horses ranked 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th all had 70% wins, they were all given a 27^th ranking. 60% wins would then be ranked 30^th). Each horse was then given 50 points for every 1^st place ranking, 49 points for every 2^nd place ranking, and so on, down to 1 point for a 50^th place ranking. The points from each of the six categories were added up, and the horses were ranked based on this total.

Results: Corinthian takes his spot upon the top of the leaderboard here, and somewhat surprisingly. His ITM ranking is the only one worse than 11^th (it is 62^nd), and even more surprisingly, his ranking is not buoyed by the Graded Stakes statistics (although they help), but rather it is his 3^rd ranked winning percentage, with 56 wins in 288 starts. The wins are somewhat evenly distributed among 31 of his 68 children, but the graded wins are focused on two. Corinthian War(KY), a son of Eurojet and owned by seacadet, has one of them with a G3 victory in September. The remaining 2 Graded Stakes wins come from the ce5s97p stable, in the form of Goblin King(KY), a son of Heir Dehere. The 2 wins include the G1 Lever Sparky Handicap and a G3, as well as an additional 2^nd place run on the Breeders’ Bowl undercard.

There are relatively few surprises in the next few spots, as several of them are also on the top of the Raw Data ranking. However, one new name that appears is Chapel Royal. Barely qualifying under this analysis, Chapel Royal gets here solely due to stakes and graded stakes records. The horse providing all but 1 3^rd place run for these is Sainte Chappelle(KY), lsumark’s filly out of Aspiration Me. Her one Graded win was the G3 Cadoka Stakes, but she has 2 other ITM finishes in Graded Stakes, and 2 Stakes wins in addition.

Several of the horses on this list were freshmen sires in 2008. A couple of examples are 10^th ranked Street Sense, 22^nd ranked Dylan Thomas(IRE), and 37^th ranked Invasor(ARG). Street Sense children seem to have a knack for hitting the board, as the sire ranks 9^th in ITM % and 6^th in stakes ITM %. He only has 1 graded winner, No Health Nut(KY) out of multi-owned Preacher’s Lady (bred and trained by lender), who is also 7 for 7 in ITM finishes on the year. Dylan Thomas(IRE) also hits the ITM jackpot with a 10^th place ranking, but most of his points come from Eclipse Award winning To All The Cynics(IRE), out of Cynic, who picked up 2 Graded wins plus a Breeders Bowl for Super. Invasor(ARG) does not have the ITM ranking of his fellow freshmen, but he does have an 11^th ranked GW% and 14^th rankes Stakes Win percentage. The graded wins (2) come from Insome Gold(KY), Rockriver’s daughter of Awegoldy, who also has 4 stakes wins. An additional 4 stakes wins come from Hot Boy(KY), a son of Crafty Kitten, running under the Doza silks.

The worst showings here are Belong To Me, Elusive Quality, Forest Wildcat, and Sakhee, who each earned 0 points to be tied for 383^rd in this analysis. In fact, the only double digit ranking was Elusive Quality’s 89^th rank in ITM percentage. The rest were all triple-digit rankings. These four ranked 32^nd, 38^th, 47^th, and 49^th in Raw Data, respectively.

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Maximum Qualification Percentage Analysis

Methodology: The list of sires was filtered down from the full 3,584 sires to only sires whose children had a combined total of at least 200 races. This limited the number of sires from 3,584 down to 352.

Sires were then ranked from 1 to 50 in 6 categories. These 6 were Win Percentage (wins/races), ITM Percentage (ITM/races), Graded Win Percentage (GW/races), Graded ITM Percentage (G ITM/races), Stakes Win Percentage (SW/races), and Stakes ITM Percentage (S ITM/races). Ties were given the ranking of the highest tie (for example, if horses ranked 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th all had 70% wins, they were all given a 27^th ranking. 60% wins would then be ranked 30^th). Each horse was then given 50 points for every 1^st place ranking, 49 points for every 2^nd place ranking, and so on, down to 1 point for a 50^th place ranking. The points from each of the six categories were added up, and the horses were ranked based on this total.

Results: Freshman Sire Corinthian once again assumes the top spot in this analysis. Led by #1 rankings in win percentage, Graded ITM percentage, and Stakes win percentage, the sire showed a remarkable ability across all levels. Meanwhile, this Maximum Qualification Analysis sees Awesome Again and A.P. Indy swap positions, as Awesome Again finally takes the win in their battle.

Lammtarra earns his 6^th place ranking on the back of his 4% stakes wins (9) in 224 starts. The most frequent winner of these is Dutch Harbor(JPN), out of Lilbitfarm’s mare Pretty Irish Girl(IRE). The now 5yo horse picked up 4 stakes wins, 3 stakes places, and 1 stakes show in 14 races on the year. The other big winner is now 3yo filly Ice and Snow(JPN), a daughter of Awesome Trick. Whitewater’s filly took home 3 stakes wins, including Lammtarra’s one and only Graded Stakes win on the year, as well as 2 other graded stakes placings.

Giant’s Causeway(IRE) looks to redeem himself in this ranking after poor broodmare stats were revealed last week, as he comes in as the 16^th ranked sire on the list. His 48% ITM rate with 1,529 races is impressive enough to earn him a 2^nd place ranking in the category for this analysis, trailing only Zeditave(AUS). Giant’s Causeway(IRE) has seen 162 of his 184 active horses who raced at least once in 2008 come home with a Top 3 placing, including a maximum of 14 ITM finishes, earned by Giant Prince(KY), a son of Pacific Princess, who finished the year with a 5-8-1 record in 14 races for trainer Wellbred99. Zeditave(AUS), meanwhile, was even better, as 23 of 27 children with at least 1 race in 2008 finished on the board. Two now-4yos, Lumberred(AUS) (out of Oostende2’s Pure Hollandia) and Ziyan(AUS) (out of Stormy Affair and also owned by Oostende2) each set their sire’s record, with 10 ITM finishes. The former succeeded with a 5-2-3 record, including 2-1-1 in stakes (the show being a Graded Stakes). The latter managed a 6-1-3 record, all in lower company.

Since it’s St. Patrick’s Day week, it seems like an appropriate time to address some Irish horses. And not all Irish horses performed as well as Giant’s Causeway, Montjeu(IRE), and Dylan Thomas(IRE). Rock of Gibraltar(IRE), a hot sire ever since his first appearance in the sim 6 years ago, has not quite lived up to expectations this year, barely sneaking on to the Top 50 here on stakes runs alone. High Chapparal(IRE) and Galileo(IRE) have faired even worse, ranking 58^th and 90^th, respectively, in this analysis. But even more disappointing than these Irish horses, are a couple of other big names in the sim.

Sadler’s Wells is one of the best sires that the sim, and the real world, has ever seen. However, by looking at this analysis, you couldn’t tell. The now-pensioned super-sire ranks 67^th in this list after being 23^rd in races run in 2008. The only category in which he picks up points is Stakes ITM Percentage, where he ranks 39^th. Even more disappointing, however, is Rahy. Rahy was ranked 1^st in number of races for the year. So it is somewhat surprising to see him pick up 0 points in this analysis, tying him for 110^th overall. His best categories, ITM% and Graded Win %, see him ranked 73^rd.

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Combined Analysis

Methodology: The four previous analyses were combined using a weighted system. For each of the six categories within each of the four analyses, the points earned in each category was multiplied by the following factor; Maximum Qualification = 2, Minimum Qualification = 1.5, Raw Data = 1.25, No Qualification = 1. The resulting score was then rounded to the nearest integer, and the horses were ranked by total points.

Results: Here are the Top 100 sires based on the combined rankings. The top of this group should not be much of a surprise if you have read the previous analyses, as most have already been discussed.

There are only 3 of the 100 on this list that did not previously show up on one of the Top 50 lists. Two are not surprising at all, as they are tied for 100^th on this list. They are Congrats and Falbrav(IRE). Congrats’s claim to fame is his Graded Stakes ITM%, while Falbrav(IRE) has a fairly high Graded and Stakes win percentage. The other missing horse is First Samurai, ranked 61^st on this list. He narrowly missed out on other analyses, ranking 55^th in Raw Data and 56^th in the Maximum Qualification Analysis. These, again, are due to Graded Stakes wins and ITM races.

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Roughly half of the overall data that was collected for this series has now been analyzed. Next week will be a surprise, as I determine what data will be revealed. One likely suspect is a look at a mare’s initial sim age versus children’s record. By glancing back at the earlier part of this series, you will see that most, if not all, of the 7 mares highlighted began their racing career as a 3yo. 3 of these mares went on to bear Sim Eclipse Award winners. Is this a trend? Are horses that begin racing as a 3yo (or later) better in the breeding shed than those who start younger? Does it matter at all? Find out later on the BTB’s Retired Mare Series.