New Zealand Oaks
The 12f New Zealand Oaks present a very strange race to handicap and preview, while the Grade 2 Race presents several Stakes and Graded Stakes winners, none has run further than 9.5f, so the biggest question is, will they stay 12f, and if we look at some pedigrees, this may be highly doubtful, so for handicapping the contest, thats run in very fine conditions on a sunny day here in New zealand, I’ll not only look at Post performances, but I’ll look at the sire AWD(average winning distance) in 2008 and successes to give you the chances of the horse to get the 12f distance.
DUBAI SPIRIT(KY) is a nice looking E Dubai filly, and here you have the big question mark, while the E Dubai x Storm Cat cross has produced several stakes winners, most are winning in sprints or short Mile Routes. E Dubais AWD is 7.44f. And so, while Dubai Spirit is 3 for 5 in wins, and has looked convincingly, when winning with a 95 last time out, I’d rate his staying 12f chances at 5%.
NOSTROVIA(KY) a Dynaformer x Danzig cross has been getting it on lately, and looks like a late closer, something, that may suggest she could stay a longer distance. Her best speed figure so far is a 86 over 9f, LTO she ran for a 3rd place in a 9.5f stakes race with a 85, not really suggesting, she likes it longer. Dynaformers AWD on turf is 10.22, so it’s much more likely she’ll enjoy the 12f, I’d rate staying chances at 80%, but her class is way below others, with only a 86 as best speed so far.
PRIVATE SCANDALS(ENG) a Sakhee x Came Home cross, winning 4 out of 6 at ALW level mainly, and finished 2nd in his first stakes try last time out, she ran a 85 at 9f, Sakhee’s AWD on turf is just 8.93, however on dirt it’s 10.86, in general I’d give her a 50% staying mark, but looks also a little down in general class.
INGENII(KY) a Ouragan x Strike the Gold cross, she finished 2nd in the Train Yard Special a Grade 1 several of todays entrants ran in, and produced a nice 101 in the 9f contest. Ouragan has a nice 9.33 AWD on turf, suggesting a good chance of staying, and with her 4 wins, of which 2 have been stakes wins, she shows a nice form curve. I’d rate staying chances at 70%, and give her a high value in class, this horse should not be missing in trifectas.
ON THE FLOOR(KY) winning 3 of her last 4 races, last time out a nice 9.5f stakes race, she is a very nice in form filly, with a After Market x Sadler’s Wells pedigree, After Market is a nice Sophmore Sire, for which On the Floor is the leader of the first crop, so there is no real information about his staying success rate or AWD, the Sadler’s Wells x Unbridled backend, suggests she could stay, but I’d say, she lacks class for this race anyway, I’d rate the staying chances at 40%, but she may not be good enough to contest the Grade 2 in the Top 5.
MOUNTAIN HIGH CAT(IRE), the Mountain High x Storm Cat filly already showed signs of fatigue in her last two races over 9.5f and 9 f, she ran in the Train Yard special, finishing 9th with a 90 speed number, and loosing ground towards the end. Mountain High is a Danhill son, and Mountain High Cat is the leading filly of the Sophomore Sires crop, and only Graded winner. Winning the Grade 1 Miesque’s Gold Classic Stakes as a 2yo. Given the pedigree I’d rate the staying chances at 20%, while she surely has some class, she may be a better miler.
ALONDRA POWER(IRE) is a 3yo filly by Gallileo x Rahy, which already sounds like staying power, she really ran her best race last time out, finishing 2nd in the 9f Hongkong Jockey Club Oaks, Her 99 speed was huge for the front runner, who just got caught on the stretch, but not necessarily a sign of not being able to stay, as she may simply not have had the end-speed her rival showed. Galileo’s AWD on turf is 8.63, while his Dirt AWD is 10.83, so I generally would rate his chances of staying at 60%, and the horse so far showed a lot of talent, so I’d make her a top 3 pick.
LAND OF PROMISE(FR) shows the highest odds at 22/1, and if you look at the Lando x Noalcoholic cross, she already showed she can’t stay, when running a sub-par 71 in a 10.5f stakes race, which makes her the filly so far running the longest distance in the field, but her performance, coming off a 91 winning performance over a mile suggests no staying power. Lando has no AWD stakes winning distance, but was able to get 12f himself IRL, but given the 10.5f race, I’d rate the staying chances at 5%, with surely missing class.
CROSSING DYNA(IRE) is a Dubawi x Cape Cross cross, she so far won 5 of her 10 lifetime starts, and showed some nice performances she won a stakes race at 9.5f with a 93, and last time out was 5th in the Train Yrad Special, with a 100 speed, results that suggest she has the class to compete today. Looking at Dubawi his AWD on turf is 8.97, with his dirt AWD being at 11.05, so surely suggesting there is a lot of stayers blood. Chances for staying 12f I’d say 85%, with some nice class by the horse another Top 3 shot.
JITTERBUG GIRL(KY) ran an equal 100 in the Train Yard special, beating Crossing Dyna for 4th there, and the similarities go even further, with her winning a stakes race with a 93 speed the race before, just that she only ran 9f to get the win. However there it stops, with her Unbridled’s Song x Danehill Dancer blood, and that is not so stayers friendly, Usong has an AWD of 8.43, and Danehill Dancer at Dam Sire suggests nothing better, I’d rate staying chances at 30%, while the class surely is there, I’d stay away from betting the horse.
BLUFFING CAT(KY) is a Storm Cat x Pine Bluff filly, who ran 9.5f stakes races in her last two outings, finishing 1st with a 93, and 3rd with a 83, which shows two faces and her inconsistency so far, winning just 2 of her 10 starts. Being by Storm Cat, whose AWD is 8.43 doesn’t suggest a lot of 12f success either, I’d rate staying 12f chances down to 20%, with a mix of missing class.
BIG TOP HALO(LA) is an 18/1 shot by Big Top Cat x Jolie’s Halo, and the LA sire suggests nothing too pretty at first look. Last time out she ran an 82 over 9.5f, but still closing pretty fast, her career best mark was an 85 over 8f in a Stakes win. Overall I’d rate her class pretty questionable, and Big Top Cat a Sophomore Sire, I could hardly find reliable facts on, with her the top horse of his crop. Staying chances I’d say around 30%, but with no class, so I don’t think she’ll contend for a good finish.
RANADAN(MD) ist he 5/1 bookies favourite, based on Past performances, she finished 3rd in the Train Yard Special, with a nice 101 mark, and won the Grade 1 Dancing Blade handicap as a 2yo, with a 97 over 8.5f. As well as the Filly Grand prix, making her the horse with the highest lifetime Earnings in the field, but now let’ssee the pedigree, Deputy Storm x Danzig. Deputy Storm is a 4th year sire, and Ranadan is her first Grade 1 winner, the success in his first two crops mainly came in sprint races, which suggests she’ll likely not stay the 12f, but she so far has run about 100% against her pedigree, with no one thinking Deputy Storm could be good for a Graded winner, and she already won 2 Grade 1’s, so I’d give her an up 50% chance of getting the 12f, combined with her class so far, she may be a solid pick, but I’d rate her just outside the Top 3.
ROLEX(KY) surely has a classy name standing for herself, but after winning her first 5 races, has not won in her last 4 starts, all at Graded level, last time out she finished 5th in the Honk Kong Jockey Club Oaks, with a 88 speed over 9f, suggesting she’s stopped maturing, as she already ran an 88 in the Breeders Bowl Filly Juvenile for a 5th place. Being by Ghostzapper x Kingmambo, she may get a decent stride, but with Ghostzappers 8.52 AWD, she may just not get the 12f, so I’d rate her staying chances at 25%, with her class suggesting she might be a little below other fillies in this race.
So, here you have your starters, my Top 3 are Ingenii, Alondra Power and Crossing Dyna, pick your poison carefully, as these fillies are all making a huge 2.5f or more step up in distance.