Retired Mare Series – 2008 Broodmare Sire Analysis

Over the last four weeks, the Retired Mare Series has taken a look at some of the top sim broodmares for 2008. Now, the style of the series will shift from prose to statistics. To make it a little more interesting for the reader, I will work to include little snippets about some of the retired mares and their children when applicable. For the first of these statistical articles, we will focus on the sires of the retired mares, heretofore known as the broodmare sire.

Much like the real sire stats that anyone can read at bloodhorse, the results of the sim statistical analysis will be for the 2008 year only. Using these criteria, and a list of horses which were active on January 9, 2009, there were 3,920 broodmare sires used in the sim (once again, a note: “Broodmare Sire” in this article refers to Sires of Retired Mares – Not necessarily Dam-Sires of horses. All “broodmare sires” are dam-sires, but not all dam-sires are “broodmare sires”). These 3,920 were sires of 34,656 mares, which in turn were broodmares of 54,625 horses in the sim. In total, there were 178,027 active horses in the sim. This means that 31.98% of the sim were children of retired mares. There are currently 19,367 sires in the sim, meaning that 20.24% of the sires were used as broodmare sires (note: not all 19,367 sires are eligible to be a broodmare sire). The analysis will be for the 3,920 broodmare sires in the sim.

Although there are a large number of broodmares, many of them have small numbers of runners in the sim. Therefore, there will be several different analyses on broodmares listed below. To help minimize confusion, I am going to give a brief outline of the sections of analysis, as well as the limitations of each.

• Pure numerical analysis (Raw data, rather than percentage data. A broodmare sire with more runners will likely have more winners, which will affect this data)
• Overall percentage analysis (Percentage data for all 3,920 broodmare sires. A broodmare sire with less runners will likely be in the extremes, closer to either 100% or 0%; Example: A broodmare sire with 1 race will have a 100% win percentage if the horse won, and a 0% win percentage if the horse lost)
• Minimum Qualification Percentage Analysis (Percentage data for 843 broodmare sires that had at least 5 active horses in 2008 and had at least 25 races run in 2008. A broodmare sire with fewer runners will likely be in the extremes, closer to either 100% or 0%)
• Maximum Qualification Percentage Analysis (Percentage data for 399 broodmare sires that had at least 100 races run in 2008, regardless of the number of runners. This limits the impact of a small number of races, but restricts the overall data to the most popular sires)
• Combined Data (Will include various combinations of the previous 4 data; Methodology will be provided within the analysis)

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Pure Numerical Analysis

Methodology: Broodmare sires were ranked from 1 to 50 in 6 categories. These 6 were Wins, ITM, Graded Wins, Graded ITM, Stakes Wins, and Stakes ITM. Ties were given the ranking of the highest tie (for example, if horses ranked 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th all had 7 wins, they were all given a 27^th ranking. 6 wins would then be ranked 30^th). Each horse was then given 50 points for every 1^st place ranking, 49 points for every 2^nd place ranking, and so on, down to 1 point for a 50^th place ranking. The points from each of the six categories were added up, and the horses were ranked based on this total.

Results: Based on the rankings, Storm Cat is the best broodmare sire, having been ranked 1^st in 5 of the 6 categories (and 2^nd in the one remaining category, Graded Wins). However, a closer look will show that he has actually had 1600 more races run than any of the other horses. With that in mind, it makes Danzig‘s ranking that much more impressive.

Danzig has by no means had a small number of races. His 6,230 races in 2008 put him 4^th on the list. Danzig is ranked 3^rd in wins, 4^th in ITM finishes, and 2^nd in Stakes wins, stakes ITM, and Graded ITM. It also includes the Graded Wins category, which he leads with a sim-high 25 Graded Stakes Wins, spread over 17 horses. One of the biggest winners is Doctor Danzig, a 6yo mare by Speightstown out of Danzig mare Doctor J. O. Her 3 wins include the G1 Dancer Cap, and do not include a thrilling 2^nd place run in the Breeders Bowl Mare Sprint. But that’s not all for Doctor J. O. A second child, 7yo mare The Teacher, also earned a graded stakes win on the year. Doctor J. O. is owned by stable manon, which is one of the Ace stables.

Two of the biggest surprises on the top part of this list are Kris S. and Awesome Again, ranked 19^th and 20^th overall. Meanwhile, they are ranked 31^st and 39^th in races run in 2008, respectively. Kris S.‘s rankings range between 17^th and 28^th, with the 17^th ranking a tie in Graded Wins with 4. Each of these wins is by a different horse, and from a different mare. Awesome Again, meanwhile, has rankings between 15^th and 33^rd, with the 15^th ranking coming from 30 Stakes wins in 14 horses. Two Awesome Again mares have had multiple stakes winners in 2008. Both Check Your Head, part of the Lenny syndicate, and Allursion, a mare belonging to techranger, have each had 2 babies earn a total of 3 stakes wins for their mares. One of Allursion’s children, 4yo filly Mont Allure(IRE), captured the G1 Queen of the Hill as one of her 2 wins.

Coming in at t-40^th on the list, Lure has to be the most shocking of the group, as his 325 races run is tied for 183^rd most of the 3,920 sires. His ranking points came from the Graded Stakes categories, where he tied for 17^th in Graded Stakes wins with 4 (coming from 2 horses, Mind Eraser(ENG) and Wishing Well G(IRE)), and 27^th in Graded ITM finishes with 8 (from the same two horses).

The highest on the Top 50 list above that is not in the Top 50 in races run for the year is Diesis(GB), who is 32^nd ranked. Diesis(GB) is ranked in the top 5 in each of the six categories, including 7 Graded Stakes wins (from 4 horses), good enough for a 14^th ranking. Other broodmare sires which are at least 10 places higher than their ranking in number of races, and have not already been mentioned, are Wild Again, In The Wings(GB), Aptitude, Forest Wildcat, Irish River(FR), Victory Gallop, and Chester House.

The most disappointing of the list is the t-40^th ranked Carson City, who was 23^rd on the list of most races run in 2008. His lack of Graded Stakes placings and mere 8 stakes wins in 2,209 races caused him to fall. Others who are at least 10 places worse than their number of races are Dixieland Band, War Chant, Forestry, and Cat Thief.

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Overall Percentage Analysis (also known as No Qualification Analysis)

Methodology: Broodmare sires were ranked from 1 to 100 in 6 categories. These 6 were Win Percentage (wins/races), ITM Percentage (ITM/races), Graded Win Percentage (GW/races), Graded ITM Percentage (G ITM/races), Stakes Win Percentage (SW/races), and Stakes ITM Percentage (S ITM/races). Ties were given the ranking of the highest tie (for example, if horses ranked 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th all had 70% wins, they were all given a 27^th ranking. 60% wins would then be ranked 30^th). Each horse was then given 100 points for every 1^st place ranking, 99 points for every 2^nd place ranking, and so on, down to 1 point for a 100^th place ranking. The points from each of the six categories were added up, and the horses were ranked based on this total.

Results: As you can see, these results are drastically different from the Raw Data results. This is due to two main factors. The first is that the data is based on percentages rather than raw numbers. The second is that there was no qualification on horses in this analysis, meaning that if a horse only had 1 race (such as Big E. Z., King Crypto, and Ladoni (GB), all tied for 26^th), and the result was a win, the rating is abnormally high (100 points for being 1^st in Win% win 100% and 100 points for being 1^st in ITM% with 100%). However, this does allow for some interesting analysis, as we see certain horses with a large number of races on this list, which is skewed towards those with fewer races.

The top 2 from the Raw Data analysis, Danzig and Storm Cat, are also on this list, although they have flipped their order (Danzig is 12^th and Storm Cat is tied for 19^th). In total, 10 of the 50 from the Raw Data analysis appear on this list as well. However, as they will likely be in later analyses as well, I will take this opportunity to look at a couple of the rarities on the list.

Ancient Times comes in at #2 on this list, thanks in large part to a 6.25% Graded Winning percentage (1 win in 16 races). That graded winner is a 5yo horse named King of Times(IRE), the only child of quietman49‘s Twisting Times. The win was the G1 Keg Of Guinness, run in May of 2008 at 10f on the turf.

Kissin Kris, #6 on the list, is the most efficient of these horses. In 4 races, his one runner, On Pointe(KY), picked up 2 wins and 2 places, with both places coming in Stakes races. Similarly, but not quite at the same class, is #46 Dubawi (IRE), whose filly Tremp(IRE) ran 6 times during the year, winning 2 and placing the other 4 times, all in MSW or Alw company. To open 2009, the 3yo filly took home her first stakes win for mare Zaldibia(IRE) and trainer zambaygo.

There’s no real way to judge ?disappointment? from this list, as everyone who makes this list has high percentages. However, the biggest surprise would have to be A.P. Indy, who comes in at #4 on the Raw Data analysis, but has fallen off the board here (he is ranked 67^th on this list), due in large part to poor stakes percentages (missing out on the top 100 in Stakes ITM Percentage).

Another to note off of this list is Ghostzapper, whose children were only 4 last year. That means that owners needed to push the envelope in order to breed to his mares. Sure enough, 7 did, with 3 of those 7 picking up stakes wins in their 2yo season, and another one being stakes placed.

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Minimum Qualification Percentage Analysis

Methodology: The list of broodmare sires was filtered down from the full 3,920 sires to only sires that had at least 5 active children in the Sim as of January 9, 2009 and whose children had a combined total of at least 25 races. This limited the number of sires from 3,920 down to 843.

Broodmare sires were then ranked from 1 to 50 in 6 categories. These 6 were Win Percentage (wins/races), ITM Percentage (ITM/races), Graded Win Percentage (GW/races), Graded ITM Percentage (G ITM/races), Stakes Win Percentage (SW/races), and Stakes ITM Percentage (S ITM/races). Ties were given the ranking of the highest tie (for example, if horses ranked 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th all had 70% wins, they were all given a 27^th ranking. 60% wins would then be ranked 30^th). Each horse was then given 50 points for every 1^st place ranking, 49 points for every 2^nd place ranking, and so on, down to 1 point for a 50^th place ranking. The points from each of the six categories were added up, and the horses were ranked based on this total.

Results: The dominant winner in this category is Northern Spur(IRE). With 42 races run in the year, he has an impressive 13 wins (a 25% clip), led by 8 wins in 14 races from boble‘s Campione Quality(IRE). In addition to his 1^st place ranking in wins, Northern Spur(IRE) is also 2^nd in Graded Win % and Graded ITM %, thanks to the 1 win and 3 shows by ace’s Zanpakutoh(KY), a daughter of Decibel’s Honor(IRE), who had 2 wins from her other child, Take Your Time(KY), in 2008 as well. Northern Spur(IRE) was ranked no worse than 6^th in any of the 6 categories.

Skip Away and Gentlemen(ARG) were ranked 278^th and 260^th in runners, respectively, in 2008, and they show up together at 8^th and t-11^th here. With 34 runners and 154 races run in the year, Skip Away earned his spot in large part due to his 5^th and 6^th ranked Graded Win/ITM % scores. These were both due solely to Bridled Dancer(KY), owned by russ, who won the G1 Hoserhead Juvenile, as well as a G3, and finished on the board in 2 other graded stakes. Gentlemen(ARG)‘s ranking also comes from the Graded Stakes category, with the only graded stakes showings on the back of tees‘s Silent Adjal(KY), coming out of unowned mare Silent Banjo(ARG). Gentlemen(ARG)’s ranking is also helped by his 26^th ranked Stakes ITM percentage, helped by Galaxy Price(ARG)‘s baby Vastness(KY), owned by ashleykate.

An interesting broodmare sire to note is #t-31 Thatching(IRE). Thatching(IRE) is ranked 2^nd in qualified horses in races per runner, averaging 11.9 races for his 10 runners. Usually that can signal a sire of claimers, but in this case, Thatching(IRE) gets his ranking off of his stakes records. All of these stakes placings come from King Happy(IRE), out of Happy Skin(IRE), both of whom are owned by jackwiz. Happy Skin(IRE) had two other children run in 2008, but they were a combined 2 for 25.

In this list, only 6 of the top 50 from the Raw Data analysis were included, which is a surprisingly small amount (especially considering that when there was no qualification status, 10 of the 50 made it ? However, since there were only 50 points in this analysis, and 100 in the No Qualification analysis, the data makes sense). Of these 6, both Danzig and Storm Cat should have been expected, and it is no surprise to see Awesome Again make the list. The most surprising of the 6 are Lure, Aptitude, and Diesis(GB), and their ranking will only improve in the next analysis (Maximum Qualifiers).

The biggest disappointment from this analysis is most likely Sadler’s Wells(IRE), who is nowhere to be seen. Well, at least not in the article. He picked up a ranking of 146^th in this analysis, far worse than his 3^rd place showing in the raw data. In fact, the only categories that he was ranked in the Top 50 in were Graded Win % and Graded ITM % (the latter of which he just made the cut, ranked 50^th). He was t-62^nd in Win %, and 73^rd in Stakes ITM %. So while he did not have a bad season, it was not quite the season that simsters would probably expect.

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Maximum Qualification Percentage Analysis

Methodology: The list of broodmare sires was filtered down from the full 3,920 sires to only sires that had at least active children in the Sim as of January 9, 2009 that had run a combined total of at least 100 races in 2008. This limited the number of sires from 3,920 down to 399.

Broodmare sires were then ranked from 1 to 50 in 6 categories. These 6 were Win Percentage (wins/races), ITM Percentage (ITM/races), Graded Win Percentage (GW/races), Graded ITM Percentage (G ITM/races), Stakes Win Percentage (SW/races), and Stakes ITM Percentage (S ITM/races). Ties were given the ranking of the highest tie (for example, if horses ranked 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th all had 70% wins, they were all given a 27^th ranking. 60% wins would then be ranked 30^th). Each horse was then given 50 points for every 1^st place ranking, 49 points for every 2^nd place ranking, and so on, down to 1 point for a 50^th place ranking. The points from each of the six categories were added up, and the horses were ranked based on this total. This is the exact same methodology as the Minimum Qualification Percentage Analysis, except that it is more restrictive than the previous.

Results: The first thing that some people may be wondering is the same thing I wondered; ?If Skip Away was 8^th when looking at Minimum Qualifiers, all 7 before him had less than 100 races, and the method is the same, shouldn’t he be first on this list?? Well?No. The total score is based on the rankings in those 6 categories. If a horse was ranked 51^st in the previous analysis, he gets 0 points. However, this time he might be ranked 10^th, thereby picking up 41 points. This is why Skip Away can be 8^th in the Minimum Qualification analysis, and 7^th in this one. That is in no way meant to detract from Skip Away‘s ranking in this analysis, as he (as well as Gentlemen(ARG) and Johar) is a surprise entrant to the top 10 of this list.

Danzig takes the top spot on this list in an odd fashion, not ranking higher than 7^th in any category (the 7^th is in the Stakes ITM category, with 5.84% of his races resulting in Stakes ITM finishes). Additionally, he is t-8^th with a 16% win percentage, and alone in 8^th in Graded ITM % with a 1.16% rate. As I already discussed Danzig previously, I will move on.

Tied for 5^th in these rankings is Fusaichi Pegasus, who makes a big jump from the raw data, while not necessarily focusing on any one category. His best ranking is 14^th, which is his Winning Percentage ranking. Of his 461 horses, the one with the most wins (9 in 18 races) is Geisha(NM), a daughter of Elegant Geisha, owned and operated by theo.

Two of the bigger surprises on this list are Caerleon, ranked #10, and Pure Prize, ranked #15. Caerleon is ranked 2^nd in Win percentage and 3^rd in ITM percentage, with 45 wins and 129 ITM runs in 271 races. His best runner in 2008 was Confederacy(IRE), out of multiple Graded winner Con Unit, who ran 3^rd in the G1 Sword Swallower Stakes for owner snowchief. Pure Prize, meanwhile, ranks first in Stakes ITM % and 4^th in Stakes win %, with 7.75% and 2.95%, respectively. These are spread over 7 horses, and none have hit the board at the Graded level, but the biggest stakes winner is Betsy(AUS), out of amsterdam‘s Grino’s Prize, with 3 wins.

This list is a decent snapshot of some of the top broodmare sires with some of the underused ones. For every Gentlemen(ARG), Johar, and Prized that makes the list, there is an equally surprising underperformance. I have discussed A.P. Indy and Sadler’s Wells as the biggest surprises to fall out of the top 10, but even more shocking is that Unbridled’s Song (52), Rahy (61), and Forty Niner (68) are not even in the top 50. And in what may be the biggest shock of all, Theatrical(IRE), #14 on the Raw Data rankings, does not even earn a single point in the Maximum Qualifier Percentage Analysis, meaning that he was not in the Top 50 in any of the 6 categories that were tested. For reference, there were 129 of the 399 horses (32.33%) that earned at least one point in this analysis. Theatrical(IRE) was not one of them.

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Combined Analysis

Methodology: The four previous analyses were combined using a weighted system. For each of the six categories within each of the four analyses, the points earned in each category was multiplied by the following factor; Maximum Qualification = 2, Minimum Qualification = 1.5, Raw Data = 1.25, No Qualification = 1. The resulting score was then rounded to the nearest integer, and the horses were ranked by total points.

Results: Here is the list of the Top 100 Broodmare Sires, based on the previous four analyses. There are no surprises at the top, and we have already talked about several of these horses.

I would like to briefly mention Septieme Ciel (55), Cape Town (65), Runaway Groom (74), Pentelicus (77), Monarchos (78), Be My Guest (80), Lion Cavern (t-81), Grand Slam (93), and Dixie Union (t-95). Each of these 9 horses did not make the top 50 in any of the previous 4 analyses (the other 91 on this list were on at least one of the previous lists). Septieme Ciel was the closest, having been 51^st on the Raw Data analysis and 61^st on the Maximum Qualifier analysis.

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With that, the analysis of Broodmare Sires is complete. There is a lot more information than I can reasonably put into a BTB article, but hopefully this gave you all a little insight into which of your well-bred mares you should be using. If you have a Danzig mare, odds are that you should be breeding to her. Meanwhile, if your mare is by Giant’s Causeway(IRE), you may want to think twice before dropping $25 on it. That’s not to say that you should avoid the horse, but rather that his 2008 season was not a particularly good one as a broodmare sire.

Hopefully you all enjoyed the statistical aspect of this, as well as the quick horse hits in the results. If you did, let me know. If you didn’t, also let me know. I can be reached on the message board, in the chat room, or by e-mail at bryan.arsham@gmail.com. Coming up next week – Which are the best sires to use with your mare?