Given, DISTORTED DRAGON scare ’em off

By ITCH

Guess who the first horse signed up for the Grade 3 Gary Asher Memorial Stakes was this week?

That’s right.

Given entered No. 1 DISTORTED DRAGON early, and it’s no wonder why. When you’ve got the big horse, why not make your intentions known? Who knows who you might scare off. Turns out, the strategy has worked perfectly. No other colt in the Top 40 of the division bothered to enter the Gary Asher, leaving Distorted Dragon a prohibitive favorite. Of course, the No. 1 horse would be the favorite in any Grade 3, but that advantage is accentuated by the fact that the Gary Asher coincides with the Saints Lock Prep. Any trainer with sense would take his or her chances in Louisiana rather than face the No. 1 horse for fewer points. In real life, a horse with a prohibitive class advantage such as DD holds would be odds-on for sure. In the Sim, he’s an engorged 5-1. That’s about as phat a price as you’ll ever see in horse racing, real or imagined. I may not know much, but I know DD has a better than one in five chance of taking this race down. Chances are, Given will have dominated this race from the time entries opened until about 12:10 p.m. on Saturday. I would expect this horse to easily assume better-than-usual position early in the race, then easily pick up the leaders as the rider demands. It’s all systems go for Number One.

No horse ranked ahead of No. 45 Wjobsports’ ROCK SLEW wanted anything to do with Distorted Dragon. And, I’m sure that, if you told wjob when he bred this son of Rock of Gibraltar that one day he would meet the Sim’s No. 1 horse, on the dirt, he would have been well shocked. Rock Slew was intended for the green stuff. He debuted on the lawn, and raced his first four races there. However, when the horse turned in consecutive, flat fourth-place finishes in entry-level allowance company, wjob decided it was time for a change. He switched this colt to the main track, and watched him blossom. He showed his preference right away, spiriting away by open lengths when stretched out to a mile, and showing a big speed figure boost. Before long, Rock Slew was tangling with stakes company. Another fourth-place finish in his stakes debut may not have inspired most trainers, but wjob saw something he liked and sent Rock Slew to post a longshot in the Grade 2 Club Stakes. It was in that race that Rock Slew announced himself as a possible candidate for the Bluegrass Derby. He was second, earning valuable stakes points, and earning a lifetime-best speed figure of 96 at today’s distance. That number tells us that Rock Slew is better with the added half-furlong over his other mile races.

Squirrel’s PAGAN STONE has a big number in his last race. That 101 earned when a late-running second in the Grade 3 Thousand Island fairly jumps off the page, especially considering it was earned at the exact class and distance of Saturday’s race. The 2007 Trainer of the Year, who is so helpful to her fellow Simmers, might help herself to a piece of the Derby trail if this brown son of Johannesburg can come running again. He likes to take back and make one run, so we’ll have to see how the pace sets up. His development has confirmed Squirrel’s Grade G broodmare DAN’S QUEEN as a serious producer. Her first offspring, a 4yo mare by Smart Strike named LIFELESS PULP, is a nice runner. She’s graded placed and a stake winner after 15 starts. Pagan Stone made it two for two, which would make us awfully optimistic about the baby 2yo HELL WEEK, who already has hit the ground. It’s no wonder that Squirrel was in a hurry to breed to Dan’s Queen as she looks like a monster mare so far. Pagan Stone runs into a tough one here in the No. 1 Distorted Dragon, but he’s playing his game at 8.5 furlongs. Even if the favorite runs off, Pagan Stone can get up for second and earn some valuable stakes points.

FIRE AND FURY is another deep closer for the Maryfran Stables. This light, gray son of Unbridled’s Song sure is a pretty picture, but not necessarily first jump out of the gate. This one leaves there a step behind and tries to live up to his name with a furious rally late. An examination of this colt’s past performances tells us he’s really going to have to step his game up to contend in this Grade 3 race. In most of his eight races so far, Maryfran has spotted this horse smartly in short allowance fields, never so much so as that seemingly impressive race two back. Fire and Fury aired by open lengths in an allowance going nine furlongs and earning a decent number. Normally, such a score at that distance would inspire confidence, but there were only four horses in that race. Fire and Fury was 3-5 and did not beat anything that day. When elevated into a full stakes field last out, Fire and Fury fell back and could not catch up. He was fifth and beaten four and half lengths at Saturday’s distance. He’ll have to do better than that to make a mark in this race. The 98 speed figure he got with that finish was encouraging, however.

Simshady Stables’ BOLD KINGS has a completely different running style from the last two. They’re dawdlers, and this one’s a speedster. You’ll have no trouble finding this brown son of AP Indy in the early going. He’ll be up front. In his nine career races, Bold Kings has made the lead in seven. He set a pace they just could not keep up with last out in a pricey California allowance, rocketing in front by as many as seven lengths while cruising to an easy score against a short field of five. Probably more impressive was this colt’s race two back, in which he was a frontrunning second, nailed at the wire by a head at today’s distance. This horse looks hot and we can expect him to go the front with gusto here on Saturday. Those speed figures are ascending nicely, from 92 to 99 and now? What will we see on Saturday? If this horse can move forward again, he could prove a tough catch.

Keely may not have given Kaif much trouble in last year’s STC contest, but she’ll have to settle for a possible Triple Crown contender as a consolation prize. Racing for Keely’s kiwistc stable, LATENT JOY is a late-running son of Latent Heat. This horse has won four of his last five, and seen his earnings bolstered big time by consecutive scores in restricted stakes with added purse money. He’s over half a million in earnings already, and has won four of his last five. The only time the horse did not win? Unfortunately, it was when he was entered at the exact conditions of Saturday’s race. Hidden among Latent Joy’s glorious four-for-five win streak is a clunker in the Grade 3 Giant Slayer Classic. Latent Joy did not fire that day, and instead of winning, was a dismal 13th. This horse has a powerful late run when he lets it go, but it remains to be seen if he’s capable of pulling it off against graded company.

The best STREET STAR has managed in four previous tries at the non-graded level was fourth. He’s been off the board in four straight against a notch below this Grade 3, so he has a big, big handicapping notch against him there. What’s to make us think a horse can miss the board in four straight non-graded races then suddenly be capable of graded contention? Against the No. 1 horse in all of the Sim, no less. We can be sure LSUMark is well aware of what this colt is capable of doing. This is a well established Sim veteran who knows what he is doing. Why is LSUMark running in a seemingly hopeless spot here? Simple. He’s hoping to pick up the pieces left over by the decimation caused by Distorted Dragon’s early entry. When that horse was first to sign up, the field was thinned. Who would rather run against Distorted Dragon for Grade 3 points when you have the Derby Lock All-Saints going the same week? If you have a good horse and want to make the Derby, the All Saints is the place to be, not the Gary Asher.

We have to take the rest of this field with a serious grain of salt when you consider they’ve qualified behind Street Star, who has only nine stakes points. Rafa’s ALTABLE has eight, and makes the leap straight into Grade 3 from conditioned allowances. This 3yo dark gray son of Unbridled’s Song is a speedy son-of-a-gun. He’s been blazing up the track in allowance company, breaking readily and winning two in a row. Blazing up the track? That might be an overstatement. This horse has been winning, all right, but his speed figures are far below the best in here. A couple of them have been to triple-digit land, and this one has yet to card a 90. That’s a lot to ask of a horse, to pick up that many points in a race in which he’s taking a huge leap in class. This one is throwing his head in with heavy ones for the first time here, and most of the time, horses in this spot don’t like it one bit. Altable is likely to break forwardly but not on top, then melt under the pressure of a Grade 3 pace. About the only thing to like about this horse are his connections. Rafa has won the Derby with Ataun and he must see something in this horse.

Gipper’s FOR SPEIGHT also takes a shot at a Grade 3 with a measly eight stakes points, but this one has a little more appeal. For one, his speed figures are a lot more competitive. This brown son of Speightstown accelerated to a 95 last out when a decent third in non-graded company, backing up the 93 he earned the time before. This is a late-running horse who has established good form going a flat mile. How is that extra half-furlong going to affect his late kick? This is his first race at 8.5 furlongs so that leaves at least a minor question to be answered there. The horse does look capable of moving forward off that last race, and, if he does, might be able to pick up a nice check in this Grade 3. I like the fact that the horse was able to at least handle a full field in his entry-level allowance win two back, in which he was best in a field of 13. His third-place finish last out in a non-graded stake has to rank him ahead of runners like Street Star and Altable, who have yet to hit the board in stakes class. For a horse qualifying this far down the list, he does catch the eye a little bit.

What would a stakes race be without the Super Stables? If you are going to write for the BTB, you better get ready to start a slowrolling stable review of the Super conglomerate, because their expensive stock has a large percentage of the Sim stakes schedule covered. In the Gary Asher, they take a shot with SUPER BRAVE, a chestnut son of Awesome Again. Like For Speight, this one catches the eye with a nice speed figure in his last race. Super Brave got a very nice 98 in running second in a non-graded stake race going 7.5 furlongs. In competing successfully at that distance, this heretofore sprinter creeped closer to routing capability, and we’re going to find out if Super Brave is that kind of horse here Saturday. This is his first foray beyond a mile. The only time he tried as much as a mile before, he was a dismal sixth. Now, that was earlier in his career and the horse has matured since then, so he may have a better shot on Saturday. He’s in good form, comes off a big race and seems to have a shot at running well. He would be overcoming obtacles to hit the board, however.

THE SPROUTER is another one who got a nice number in his last race. Granted, it was only an allowance, but that 96 is nothing to LOL at, not for this brown son of Roses in May trained by Magoo. The Sprouter stakes a claim with that competitive speed figure, but does not handicap quite so well in the class department. Both times this horse has tried stakes company, he has been soundly beaten. A complete reversal of stakes form will have to occur for The Sprouter to contend here. Maybe something changed in this horse in that nice allowance run, but that was against a short field of five. Two back, he faced a field of nine in a non-graded stake and ran last of nine. Now, he’s facing a full field of 14 in a Grade 3 headed by the No. 1 3yo in all of the Sim. It could frighten this horse a bit if he has to look Distorted Dragon in the eye. It will be a hearty LOL indeed if this horse can run in the same neighborhood as DD.

Talk about waiting until the last minute! Galileo was more late entering SARMATICUS than Given was early putting in Distorted Dragon. Believe it or not, the official time of entry for Sarmaticus was 5:59:44 p.m. on Wednesday. He had a full 15 seconds to spare! Apparently, Galileo thought long and hard about whether to run Samarticus in this spot. He’s running on a huge leap in class, all the way from his entry-level allowance score last out to a Grade 3 against the No. 1 horse. Thinking along with Galileo, a tremendous longtime veteran of so many wins, you have to think he was well aware of the dynamic at work in this race. That is: DD forcing out all serious contenders and a the soft underbelly of the race which has resulted. A few Top 100 types have arrived, but the bottom half of this race is a real scramble. Galileo knows he takes a shot with this horse, but the big-time speed figure of 98 last out inspires confidence. He’s the lightliest-raced horse in the field, and has yet to run a bad race. A two-race winning streak is risked in about as risky a proposition you can find for such a streak.

FUPEG’S BLUSHING moves way, way up the class ladder here in his sixth career start for Bobangod Stables. Looking for a way to make a case for this seemingly impossible leap, we nominate Fupeg’s Blushing for Saturday’s “horse for the course” award. He cleared his entry-level allowance condition over this New York course, earning the best speed figure of his life ( 92) while going a mile. We’ll draw a line through that most-recent race, a disappointing fourth-place finish while sprinting on an off track. Officially, we are blaming the track for that poor finish. At the very least, Fupeg’s Blushing contributes to the pace scenario. He likes to get out of there quick, and has shown a frontrunning style when competing at far below the class level of this race. Like Altable, Fupeg’s Blushing is likely to break near the front and then have a hard time sustaining a Grade 3 pace.

BLUSHING FUPEG is the second part of a closely related entry here for Bobangod. Like Fupeg’s Blushing, Blushing Fupeg is by Fusaichi Pegasus, and shows Blushing Groom in the DDS spot. Breeding-wise, these are extremely similar animals. They would be identical if not for different dam sires. Deputy Minister is the DS on Fupeg’s Blushing, while Nureyev is the DS on Blushing Fupeg. (Got all that?) While the breeding is almost the same, the running styles are polar opposites. As stated, Fupeg’s Blushing is a speed horse, and can be expected to press the pace of the Gary Asher. Blushing Fupeg, on the other hand, will drop back and try to make one run. In that sense, this entry is compatible. Fupeg’s Blushing could be seen to set it up for Blushing Fupeg. The only problem is whether they’re good enough. Blushing Fupeg was badly beaten last out in his only stakes try, that at the non-graded level. The horse does not make much sense handicapping-wise and is not likely to fire in this spot.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!