South African Guineas
Welcome to South Africa, where we have the chance to witness the beginning of the Classical Season for 3yos in the Mile Turf Races, called Guineas, the South African Guineas is a Grade 2 Race, open for all 3yo horses. We have a very tight field, lining up some very competitive 3yo mile racers, with 2 horses at 5/1 and 2 horses at 6/1, with some live outside shots, that should be a close race, so let’s face the field:
At #1 we see STC WOLF(IN) his adds are at 10/1, but with only 1 lifetime win, that actually came in his first race, a 5.5f dirt race on a good dirt, he looks a hefty outside chance. Last time out he finished 2nd in a 1x ALW, a class, that suits him much better. His career best is a 95 over 1 mile, he ran that in the Grade 1 Fainting Goat nightmare stakes, a race, in which he only finished 7th. Closing well in his last races, he might be better off trying a longer distance, than this 8f trip.
At #2 FIELDS OF GREEN(ENG) takes his starting position, he’s 16/1, and still very green, in only 4 career starts he won twice, and with the last win coming at stakes level, the step up to Graded Company, despite being early, seems a logical one. He has won his races with speed performances of 87 and 88 and flopped in an 8.5f stakes race in between, when he could only finish 6th. Despite his 50 W%, he looks a deep outside shot, as most horses in the field have shown much more speed and experience.
#3 shows us FASTNLUCKY(AUS) who won 4 of his 7 career starts, however his latest win came at 9f, and it looked like he enjoyed the extra furlong, getting his first stakes win, after a 2nd place, with a career best 90 over 8.5f. He looks like he can up his speed number over 8f, but feels more comfortable with added distance.
In the #4 slot VACATION JAUNT(AUS) brings a perfect turf record, while struggling mightily in 4 dirt starts, he won all 4 of his turf starts so far, including back to back races over 7f and 8f in stakes company. Both times he finished with a speed of 93, which looks very solid for todays race, although he may likely be a better sprinter, as it seems he is a nice stalker, making his move near the half way mark. I’d put him on my list of Top 3 possibilities, despite his odds of 11/1.
At #5 FERTILE LAYER(IRE) knifes out odds of 12/1, however the still very “green” horse posted a 101 in his last stakes win, to go 3 for 3. The Marju colt looks to be one of the top horses, who goes into Graded company in only his 4th start, while this in todays Sim is very unusual, it should be the right move for him. All his starts so far have been at 8f, and as he looked impressive in all 3 races, it’s likely, he found his ideal distance already. He likes to come from off-the-pace, and trail the field early on, to show a very quick finish speed. If he can overcome his inexperience, count on him going 4 for 4.
In the #6 slot, we see HANNAH’S MUSE(KY) making his 10th start, and so far it’s been either hit or miss, as he won 5 races, and finished 4 times out of the top 3, which shows his inconsistency. His best race came in mid January, when he won a stakes race in new Zealand with a nice 98 over 8f. His 3 tries at graded company, including an Equinics start last year, all have been big misses, as he finished out of the money in all 3 tries. It’s likely he may have a miss race again, but at least he comes well rested with a 4 week break.
#7 has been given to one of our two joint-favourites WHERESANNA(KY) who posts 5/1 odds, despite only winning 2 of his 8 career starts. 4 of those starts have been on turf, resulting in a win and 2 seconds. Last time out he finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Fainting Goat Nightmare Stakes, where he got caught on the stretch, after taking the lead, when entering it. The 98 speed in the 8.5f race meant a new career high, for the stalker, who seems as good on dirt as on turf, but often has come up just short of the winning line running in Graded Races mainly.
At #8 we see the other joint-favourite DREAMSONGS(ENG) , who has much more of a winning record, with 5 wins in 8 races, however, most of his Races have been in ALW or Ungraded competition. In his only Grade 1 start, the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf, he finished at well beaten 6th. Changing his style from a lead horse to a more likely closer has not done him too good so far, last time out, he ran a nice 100, but was beaten into 3rd, in a Stakes Event at Illinois. Now he made the trip to South Africa, in hope of finding more success here, but I wouldn’t pick him as a winner here again.
With #9 at 10/1 we see BELEQWAYA(IRE) he’s one of the few Grade 1 winners, we see in today’s race, but the win came at the 6f distance in his closing 2yo race. Now as his owners look for classic glory, he’s off sprints, and will try a route distance for the 2nd time. Last time he finished 4th in the Rantonfan handicap, with a 93, 3 notches slower, than his winning speed over 6f. To me he looks like a pure sprinter, and if we compare other Heliostatic runners in their sophomore season, it looks like his pedigree also suggests sprints.
CARLS COSMOS(IRE) drew # 10, and has nice looking odds of 6/1, despite having already run 11 times, it’s his first Graded start, he’s been build up slowly, and responded with a nice stakes win last time out, winning a stakes race in illinois with a career best 104. The speed explosion was hardly to see, and so the question is, if it was a one-time fluke, or if he can repeat this again today. I fear we will see another over-achiever from a well timed stakes race, face the hard competition of Graded racing, where experience can be very useful He’s likely another horse trying to close fast from behind.
At #11, also at 6/1, we have BRABANTIO(KY) another horse with only 5 starts, winning 3 of them. Likely his last race can be seen as a cross-reference, as his speed of 103 in 2nd, saw him beaten by Carls Cosmos, who’ll start just next to him today. Let’s see, who of the two gets the better notch this time. Brabantio is likely to take the early lead, and, if he can speed it up like he did last time, we can expect a very quick race. As another cross-reference, he finished 7th in the Grade 1, which Beleqwaya won, but the route distance, should suit him much better.
Last but not least, we have COUNTJEU(SAF) , posting odds of 10/1, he brings a 4 race winning streak, and 6 out of 8 career races into todays contest. His last 4 wins all have been in ungraded Stakes races, with speeds from 83 to 92 over 6-7f, so he’s not making his first Graded start, but also takes a huge step in distance. Only once he tried routing, and it ended with him finishing 4th well beaten. But as that was 5 months ago, look for a much more matured horse today.
To me Fertily Layer looks like the horse to beat, if he is just maturing as quickly as he’s been so far, top challengers come with Brabantio, Carls Cosmos and perhaps Vacation Jaunt.