They All Have the Credentials to Win

By October, two-year-olds are not quite the blank slates they were for much of the year.  The fourteen youngsters vying for the $150,000 Grade III Flying Saucer Stakes, one of two graded stakes on the Ontario card, include many that have tried both surfaces, some with route experience, and even some with graded stakes experience.

Today’s race is a mile on the turf.

A key race leading up to this one may well be the Grade III Omnipotent Juvenile Stakes, as three of those runners, including the winner and morning line favorite Storm Tapper are entered here.

Today’s race may be of special interest to handicappers, as it has been included in Kaif’s world-wide pick six contest.

A common thread facing handicappers is that it seems most are stretching out, coming off a stakes win, and owning a couple of 80+ speed figures.

Let’s try to find a single:

1. CJT’s (10%) Pit of Destruction (2 yo c, Awesome Again x Shot Glass (Pulpit) x Chief’s Crown) broke his maiden on the turf, but has been on the dirt since, winning a stakes and fading badly in his last effort.  Stretches out for the first time and may need an easy lead to take this. 

2. Staying On(Fr) (2 yo c, Zindabad(Fr) x Deep Trouble LC(Ire) (Cape Cross(Ire)) x Encino) has been first or second in all five starts, all on the grass.  Was a longshot winner in last, as he wired a stakes field for trainer Levers (9%).  This is the first route attempt for the modestly bred colt, but his dam won going long.  Levers has to be pleased with results so far.

3. Tenacious V (2 yo f, Vindication x Lear Fan x Buckpasser) tries the boys for the first time.  It’s also the first stakes try for the filly out of the Peeps4 (16%) barn.  What she does have, though, is an eight furlong win on the grass, coming last time in her first try on the surface, where she rallied to finish with a very competitive 88 speed figure.  Excellent trainer, promising apprentice jockey, nice running style, loves turf, a win at the distance, and generous odds. Hmm.

4. Even at 22-1, Icy Europa(Ire) (2 yo c, Galileo(Ire) x Harpsichord (Rahy) x Machiavellian) is not a toss out. The dam of this Goody5 (13%) trained colt won two turf routes, and the progeny of Galileo love the grass.  Icy Europa is two for three, including a stakes win.  The relatively modest 75 speed figure, together with the short field he beat, accounts for the long odds, but it was from eight weeks ago.  Stalking style may hold up in this first route try, and normal maturation could put him right there.

5. Rainbow Flux (2 yo c, Rainbow Quest x Renee Flux (Nureyev) x Sir Ivor) has a closing style that may help as he stretches out a half-furlong for this.  The MrFu2 (12%) trainee won a stakes last out and owns three 80+ speed figures in his five races.  Rainbow Quest sure produces a lot of turf stakes winners.  No real negatives here.

6. A winner of five of seven, Storm Tapper (2 yo c, Tapit x Malt Storm (Storm Cat) x Mr. Prospector) is a deserving favorite.  Let’s see: he has an 18% trainer in RunPastEm9; he won going away in a graded stakes at 7 ½ furlongs on the turf last time; his 94 speed figure in that race is much the best in here; his dam even won a turf stakes route.  Let’s nitpick: two turns at eight furlongs is a much different race from one turn at 7 ½.  Also the best Ontario jockeys chose 10-1 horses.  Jockey Welborne’s talent, if not limited, has been well hidden.

7. Campillo (2 yo c, Storm Cat x Seeking the Gold x Nijinsky II) has two wins and a second in three grass starts for the Rafita (13%) barn.  Another one coming off a stakes win, with an 80 speed figure, and stretching out.  Raise your hand if you would be surprised to see him win.  I don’t see any hands….

8. Seeking the Lass (2 yo c, Seeking the Gold x Night Shift x Cutlass) ran an even third in the Omnipotent Juvenile behind Storm Tapper.  Prior to that RichardObe (13%) trained him to two turf wins, including a stakes.  He owns two 80+ speed figures.  Low percentage jockey.

9. At 34-1, surely we can throw out Misty Way (2 yo f, Cetewayo x Early Morning Mist(GB) (Diesis(GB)) x Vaguely Noble)?  Sorry.  Like fellow filly Tenacious V, she has actually won at two turns on the turf, beating the boys in a stakes last time as a maiden for CatDancer (9%).  The speed figure was a mediocre 77, so we will downgrade her chances.  I think.

10. Kandraker (2 yo c, Spinning World x Nijinsky II x Northern Dancer) won the Grade III Feeling Bad Stakes three months ago.  Last time, the TwoPine (18%) trained colt came up short in his rally as a 3-2 favorite.  Not only is his trainer high percentage, but he also gets number two jockey N Linville, and he is winning at a 20% clip in 2005.  Will be flying late.  Great value play at 10-1.

11. The number one Ontario jockey, B Renfroe, opts for another 10-1 colt: Son of Scab (2 yo c, Macho Uno x Katie’s Scab (Danzig) x Conquistador Cielo).  BobbyKHW (20%) trains the only one actually shortening up for this race.  Son of Scab won at 8 ½ furlongs last time, going away from a small stakes field, while earning an 87 speed figure.  If you don’t like Storm Tapper, you have to be excited about a 10-11 exacta box.

12. General Nutsaritch(Aus) (General Nediym(Aus) x Longships (Danehill) x Fappiano) was a fading seventh in the Omnipotent Juvenile, but before that he had a first and a second in a pair of turf stakes, earning 80+ speed figures.  The crafty DKYoung5 (15%) trains.

13. Trolley (2 yo f, Victory Gallop x Forty Niner x Theatrical(Ire))  is coming off a speedy stakes win against the boys.  The Wish (16%) trainee earned a field second best 89 speed figure, and now she tries two turns for the first time. Breeding says she should like the extra distance.  She has won three of her four turf starts.  Another we can’t find any negatives for.

14. Gamaliel (2 yo c, Sakhee x Wild Kid (Unbridled) x Cozzene) has four first or second finishes in six turf starts.  Rare in this field in that he hasn’t won a stakes yet, nor cracked the 80s in his speed figures.  May improve on the stretchout for SimonD4 (15%), but I think I’ll look elsewhere for the winner.

Morning line choice: 6-13-5-7

Timmn’s choice: 11-6-10-3

To comment, email timmn@hotmail.com