California Dreamin’
Sleepy Fan Stakes draws full field of Derby Hopefuls (until Saturday afternoon)
If you’ve got a good 3yo colt, it’s late February, and you’re reading a stakes-race preview in the Black Type Bugler with baited breath and beads of sweat pouring from your pores, it can mean only one thing: it’s the Bluegrass Derby trail, and it’s Judgment Day.
Now that’s NOT to say that the results of the Grade II Sleepy Fan, a 1700 meter dirt affair for sophomores simulated horses of any gender, will make or break the cumulative career of its entrants.
But it will reveal at least one important gem of information: Who has got the goods to continue on to “First Saturday in May Glory”.
It’s not that they can’t all be good enough. In fact, any of these 14 colts look like they could go on to serious Graded Stakes level careers, if they haven’t already achieved those laurels, and some have. But given the nature of the entry selection process for the Big Dance, and the fact there’s ample time for but one serious prep race after today, it will be THIS race that determines who can move on, and who will start looking for more modest travel accommodations on their 3yo campaign.
Barring a Derby Lock Race victory, it seems as though 10 or 11 of these fine competitors are never going to have the points to qualify for the 20 horse field. And those who fail to hit the tote board probably (with one notable exception) will be shut out of the Derby Lock Races that provide the last-chance, golden ticket. It can’t be overstated – a good performance today is paramount.
If you’ve read any preview articles from this reporter in the past, you may have noticed a special attention to the small details and statistical facts that might have been overlooked, or maybe buried under the surface of the past performances. Today, we take a different approach.
If you’re reading this article, it’s very likely you have a horse in the race – or you have a pal who does, and you know all about the horse’s pedigree, victories, allegiances, and the like. No need for me to repeat that information here, right?
It may be construed (or judged, or officially declared by the powers that hold the credit purse strings) to be an illicit, controversial decision, one that will be scorned for eternity. Or at least held in contempt until next week. Nevertheless, I’ve decided to provide what to my imagination is inspired insight into each of the 14 runners today. It will be opinion, mostly, but opinions based on real thoughts in my actual mind. Those are tough to fake, trust me.
I’ll talk about not only their chances for victory in this contest, but the bigger picture, which is undoubtedly why they came to play in the city with the initials L.A. The road to Louisville may also pass through Tinseltown…
THE DEVIL’S DOSAGE does not run like a horse with a 6.66 that would indicate potential distance limitations. Jacklad has brought him along smartly since breaking maiden in September, and his stalking style indicates there is some tractable speed that can be utilized in different ways (not bad for a son of Forestry). Last race PP’s (G3 @ Denmark) are deceptive – he was gaining ground late, but was passed by two others down the stretch as much of the pace collapsed around him. He did have a net gain on the winner of about ¾ lengths, but then again, the other guy won. Today’s race is probably at least as tough, so we might need to see another dimension of his game to see him in the winner’s circle.
RIVER SLEW TED has made a name for himself with two straight wins @ Minnesota for trainer Topmeup. Turf-leaning pedigree should have no trouble with distance, but will be sorely tested on class after beating up on mediocre fare. This is his 3rd start in the last 6 weeks of racing, so if the bounce isn’t coming in his next start, it’s coming today. It’s hard to knock a horse who has been winning, but this is a trial by fire he may not be up for, under the circumstances.
THRU THE HOOPS has been well-spotted in allowance company for bandinni of the pointblank group. Arizona’s desert backstretch has been kind to the colt with the mile-ish pedigree, which does enough to be in the hunt, but doesn’t dazzle with speed figures. Again, hard to knock a last-out winner, especially on the stretch out to 9 panels, but the cutback in distance today isn’t likely to help him on paper. He’s in the same metaphorical boat as the horse to his left; thrown to the wolves to see what he’s made of.
ALBERTA RICHES sports a sprinter’s pedigree and a solid stakes record for shortplay/sparkit. One route try was reasonable at 2, but not really revealing about his distance preferences. Nice race over the track last out going 7f, and I was rather impressed with the change of style, showing more restraint and actually gaining down the stretch for the first time in his career. It may have been circumstantial, but more of the same is likely necessary to be a factor with better horses at a distance he had not tried.
SHERBET’S REIGN for high-percentage Foxon has been benefiting from astute placement in short-field stakes across the pond. This guy is serious about his stakes points. Another obvious turf-type who likes the dirt better, is not supposed to have distance issues but seems a little iffy around that last 1/16th of a mile or so. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, since he was caught last out by an undefeated son of Seeking the Gold named MY FAVORITE HAACK. I’m sure we’ll see that one in a Graded race soon, so today’s effort may give us dual insights. Dangerous.
TOLTEC tops the morning line at 30-1 for skymesa, but I like his chances better than that. Low CPU values stem from slow speed figures while experimenting with sprints and turf races, but he’s headed in the right direction now. Was no match for SEATTLE EXPLOIT when 2nd last out, but that one went on to win the G3 Risen Star next out with a triple-digit Wallace figure (shouldn’t it have a name like that? I get sick of Andy Beyer from time to time). He may not win today, but he’s improving more rapidly than others in the field, and might be a nice one down the road.
BRIDLED DANCER is a russ homebred who stands out as the class of the race. Grade I win at 2 going 7f and the subsequent G3 victory at today’s distance stamped him as a Derby prospect long ago. Since then he has kept tough company but not advanced, essentially running evenly while posting reasonable figures that would win vs. slightly easier. Has not hooked an obvious monster today, but I feel he’s peaked or is peaking sooner than others and is not likely to continue to climb. A placing today may help the #9 ranked colt eke out a Derby spot but I would be surprised if ran in the money today.
BURNIN LOVE of super fame has a pedigree that screams turf, and of course, has never run on the grass. Who is to argue when you win 3 of the last 4, and was flying like a maniac down the lane in a G1 on Del Penn day? The kicker here is that the horse has never gone a route, but I would be quite surprised if the horse faltered at today’s distance. The adage about deep closing sprinters making less-than-stellar routers does often hold water, but it is not a reach to try this one at this distance, at this level. In fact, I am a little surprised the supers waited this long, unless they know something about sprinters and stakes points that I do not… which is very likely. Expect him to run a monster race, or not fire at all.
CECIL sent out by waffleboy from Benelux is yet another ‘turf’ horse who races on dirt. The trend is duly noted – even the Europeans get Derby fever! This guy has never run a bad race and is obviously being campaigned in a conservative fashion, to the trainer’s credit. Wallace figs are just so/so but the way he grinds down the leaders makes one think he has room to improve with distance. Could be the classic 3yo stakes placed, 4yo can’t win an allowance type (I’ve had more than my share of those) but has plenty of cards left unplayed if today’s gambit doesn’t pay off.
AMERICAN HAACK is obviously not the #1 colt in trainer haack’s empire (the aforementioned MY FAVORITE HAACK looks like he’d blow this one’s doors off) but has the pedigree and the PP’s that scream ‘late-bloomer’. He’s been dominant in the lower ranks, and comes up lacking when tested for class in both stakes tries. I think he might actually be better at 9f or 10f but unfortunately will have to perform today in order to have a shot at proving himself in Louisville. Would not be surprised to see this one hit the board but will probably need a +10 Wallace fig boost to do it.
EAST SIDE LOVE has an unblemished record and a pedigree that lends toward salivatory response. Steadily improving, fast, and tractable, this horse has it all going for him and trainer icbomber except for the resume of three bid-race victories in Indiana. Obviously it was time to take a shot and ESL was lucky just to draw in (he was #14, in fact), and is one of those horse who possibly must win to make it to the Derby. Good news is that he looks talented enough to do it. His star will be born in Hollywood today if he comes home in front.
BANDANA is the 2nd Bandini-sired horse in the field, which makes me want to consider my self-imposed Bandini banishment. BMW stables don’t have another horse anywhere near as good as this one and should be glued to the monitor come raceday. Don’t feel bad, I don’t have one close to this guy, either. He was just a whisker away from being 7-for-7 at 2, and posted a field-best 99 Wallace in his first route try. Unfortunately, his Graded Stakes debut came in January where he was (rightly) sent off at 117-1, and was thoroughly beaten by older horses that had competed in last year’s Derby, Breeders Bowl Classic, etc. Suffice it to say he’s found a more age-appropriate bunch today. It would be the feel-good story of the year if this colt out of a mare most of us would never consider breeding makes it to the big time.
GOBLIN KING shows up from the deep ‘ce’ group in Belgium, ready to roll on the front end. Having done most of his damage in sprints, it seems he’ll get another crack at two-turns. Corinthian has thrown a few good routers, but this guy won a Graded Race in June, and never beyond 6f. Awesome horse, but tough to think he can maintain his form AND stretch out, from the 13 hole, no less. Might seem him in the Breeders Bowl this year, but at a shorter distance.
BARTSI GUSSE from the marcol/cab stables rounds out the fine field with another ambiguously turfy pedigree. He improved on dirt, thrived on longer distances and was coming up the ranks until unplaced in Vermont going 9.5 furlongs. The race didn’t appear particularly salty for a Grade 1 affair, and the steady retreat from start to finish certainly raises question marks, but he’s definitely better spotted today in a field full of speed and stalker types. This is the kind of horse who makes the trifecta or superfecta ticket, but may not have enough oomph to make it to the winner’s circle. I’d love to see a Kiwi-bred in the Spring Classic but I think he’ll have to settle for lesser awards.
Kudos to the breeders / trainers of all these worthy 3yo’s. I am quite sure that a legitimate contender will emerge from this group, and many who don’t will still go on to distinguished careers. It just adds further testimony to the belief that getting into, let alone winning, the Bluegrass Derby is one of the most difficult (and coveted) feats in our beloved SIM. I should know, I am still trying after 8 years and will probably be watching from the sidelines yet again. But as long as you have a 3yo who draws into a race like the Sleepy Fan, there’s always hope. And as a wise man once said, Hope Dies Last.