Grade II Nakayama … A Tale of Extremes
Race ID:3875.5014
Grade II The Nakayama Handicap
$1,200,000, All horses 4 Year Olds and Up
One Mile and one eighth (9 F)
Track: Turf Good
Local racegoers will be crowding the grandstand in spite of the damp forecast as nine older horses take to the track to compete in the 1st Edition of the $1.2M Grade II The Nakayama Handicap over nine furlongs of “good” turf in Japan. A highly competitive field will parade to the post featuring morning line favourite RODE ME HARD(KY) 40oz closely followed by several others in here at 4/1 and 9/2. Actor Bruce Willis of Die Hard Fame performed the post position draw honours for the big race and was quoted as saying “I thought they said come out to the Nakatomi but I knew I blew that %$&+# up twenty years ago!” Let’s examine the field complete with quotes from the owner/trainers …
Race Analysis by Hladun
PP 1: 116882 THEATRICAL TRAILER(IRE) coolk2 (6/1) RANK: 70
This five year old son of Theatrical comes into this race off of a win in the Grade II Sanders Stakes at today’s distance of nine furlongs. A monumental race in his career given that it was his first graded stakes attempt and put on a incredible show to boot with a 112 speed figure in wiring the field. With seven wins in fourteen career starts and coming off of two consecutive stakes wins, he’s a dangerous dude right now as he’s fresh and fast. A major player here.
“He’s been kicking the stall door down all week. I’m expecting a huge effort here” coolk2
PP 2: 8666 NORTHERN BAY II(KY) supapogs9 (9/2) RANK: 30
This four year old son of North Light(IRE) is another high percentage shooter and comes into this race looking to rebound from his latest. He exits the Grade III Strange Brew Turf Handicap where he was in striking position as they turned for home but didn’t have it late finishing third beaten five lengths. He did win the Grade II Boston Derby and the Grade III Haw Haw Derby this past fall. This is his prefered distance and if sharp may turn the tables here on this group.
“We scoped him after his last and he’s fine. Without a reason we’ll chalk that last up to an off day and hope for a rebound here” supapogs9
PP 3: 77269 BOWLED SHANE(IRE) cozzene99 (4/1) RANK: 194
With eight career wins to his credit, this five year old son of Bahri has performed well in non-graded stakes races to date having paced in several of them. He has posted three consecutive triple digit speed figures and has failed to hit the board in only one of his last eight races. This distance may prove to be a tad short for him though he’s handled it in the past. The acid test.
“We think he’s earned the chance to prove he belongs in graded company so here we are” cozzene99
PP 4: 73252 RODE ME HARDER(KY) 40oz (3/1) RANK: 45
This four year old son of Rahy has won his last three races over the turf and ten of seventeen overall. He comes out of the Grade III Strange Brew Turf Handicap where he crushed the field at today’s distance winning going away by over two lengths. A monster performance, he ran the nine furlongs in 1:46:4 with a 116 speed figure. A repeat of that effort takes this going away!
“That was a monster effort in his last. My only concern going into this one is the bounce factor. He’s been eating hardy all week so I think he’s primed for another stellar outing” 40oz
PP 5: 26611 SKIDMORE DAMPER jrogue (17/1) RANK: 640
This six year old son of Sadler’s Wells comes back quickly in this spot having competed without much success in the Grade II Buddy Boy Mile over eight furlongs here in Japan. He was positioned perfectly to pounce at the top of the stretch but inexplicably ran out of gas in mid-stretch finishing a well beaten eighth. He looks to rebound here but has not run a triple figure in his last six races and not won since June of last year and never a graded event in his career. Up against in this spot. An outsider.
“I’m here on a hunch … call it a gut feeling I have that he’s sitting on a big race” jrogue
PP 6: 138069 PROSPETARIAT(IRE) xssessiv (22/1) RANK: 275
This four year old son of Sadler’s Wells is in here trying to prop up his ranking point total as he’s due to lose a big chunk very soon. He is still eligible for NW 2X and NW2L and has had little success in several efforts against both graded and non-graded company. Though he’s put up three startight triple digit figures it wasn’t good enough to the hit the board in these minor stakes events. Can‘t see a breakout in the cards for this one here. Will follow the pack around.
“He ran very even in his latest and on the strength of that I thought he’d earned a shot” xssessiv
PP 7: 130943 BENDIGO cuprunners (9/2) RANK: 48
This six year old son of Gone West has seven wins in twenty two career starts and a bankroll of $549K to date. He’s competed now in nine consecutive Graded stakes events and has earned triple digit speed figures in his last eight races. He comes out of the Grade III Marcos Footwear Handicap where he finished a solid third at ten furlongs. Four starts back in the Grade III Premium Jockey Guild Stakes at today’s distance, he overcame a quick pace that day and powered through the stretch to win going away by over two in a quick 1:47:2 (111). He’s a seasoned veteran in good form of late and that merits respect here. A strong contender.
“I thought he was a little flat last time out and expect him to rebound here. He likes the distance and can’t see him not being right there at the end” cuprunners
PP 8: 143397 MILLVIEW EMBLEM(JPN) wyndaway3 (27/1) RANK: 1541
Like others in here, this four year old son of War Emblem is eligible for NW1X and NW2L. He broke his maiden just two starts back after seven tries and his latest in an allowance affair was largely unimpressive and hardly a ringing endorsement for your support at the windows today.
“I hear the snickers but sometimes you’ve gotta take a shot. Afterall, it is a horse race!” wyndaway3
PP 9: 113468 ALL RIGHT(KY) peeps10 (9/2) RANK:
This five year old son of Mingun is a veteran of thirty one career starts and comes into this race off two consecutive wins in non-graded stakes company. His latest came in the Well Resume Special over nine and half furlongs in Surrey. Sitting in mid-pack, eight lengths off the pace, he unleashed a furious stretch run in which he collared the leaders deep in the lane and won by a measured quarter length. An excellent ride by the bugboy R. Whisper, he has been good for awhile now and would not be a surprise here. A contender.
“His last two were just wonderful. He proved he could do it either way … that is win on the lead or come from behind. We’ll see how the race sets up but I’ll leave it up to the jock” peeps10
GRADED HANDICAPS: By Hladun
1. RODE ME HARDER(KY) 40oz
2. BENDIGO cuprunners
3. ALL RIGHT(KY) peeps10