Faux Pas Heads Market in Honey Bee
Race 12 on this week’s
Let’s work through the formguide for this event:
Drawn in the inside gate we find Multiple Mainiac. She’s virtually incapable of running a bad race, having missed the board just four times in her twenty start career. She failed in her first race which was on affected ground, then at her first black type try, her only try on the dirt and in her only other ‘failure’ she ran fourth. The super team have given this filly plenty of time to mature, with her only other black type appearance in a Delpenn Restricted Stake, where she ran second. She certainly has to be taken on trust here, as she faces several seasoned Graded performers, and she’ll need a career best speed rating to feature in the finish, but with advantage of the inside draw, she a better proposition than her price may indicate. She’s had a solid grounding at the lower level, and has earned her place on the higher tier. A scratchbred four year old daughter of Unbridled’s Song / Danehill / Damascus, Multiple Magic would need lots of luck, and everything to go her way. Having said that, it would come as no great surprise to see her add value to the exotic payouts.
Grand Ridge, lining up in barrier 2, returns to Graded racing after being sent back to the lower level to reclaim that winning feeling. A winner of her first three, and then a stakeswinner not long after, she developed a serious case of seconditis, finishing runner up four times in six starts. She now remembers what that winning feeling is like once again, having made short work of her last two allowance appearances, with winning margins of three, and four and a half lengths. So, on the positive side of the ledger: She’s won five of sixteen, including one black type event. Of concern is her one tilt at the Graded stuff, where she finished a well held sixth, albeit against Grade 1 company. That experience can have done her no harm. A daughter of Encosta De Lago, Grand Ridge is the third, and by far most successful, progeny of the dual Grade 1 winning, A Grade mare Kiki’s Moon Dancer (Forty Niner / Storm Cat). She clearly lacks nothing genetically and her last start proved she can cover the ground in the sort of time likely to be required here. The only question Grrm needs an answer to, is that surrounding her ability to perform at this level. She’s capable of gaining a handy sit just off the pace, and deserves plenty of respect at enticing odds.
Monsun JR CB, drawn 3, has been absent from the winner’s circle for a long time, after winning seven of her first eleven starts. She last saluted the judge back in July 08, and since then has raced eight times, making the podium on just one occasion. Therein lies both the bad and the good news. Yes, she’s been winless for eight runs, but she has collected a check in five of them. And that one visit to the podium: Last start. At this track. Over this distance. In the Grade 1 Zipperhead Special. That was a strange sort of race, with the winner, Miss Sullivan, stopping the clock in a relatively slow 1.42.4, and with this runner holding her position throughout to finish less than three lengths astern. If this event is run at the pace expected, she’ll need to do a bit better than recent efforts to rate a winning chance, but she’s established that the class poses no threat, and that she needs to be treated as a fair chance. Monsun JR CB is a daughter of Monsun and is the only offspring of G rated mare Jack’s Fas CB (Fasliyev / Dixie Brass). Breeder / trainer Themole knows that this girl needs everything to go right this week for her to be among the main contenders, but connections can expect another solid performance, with reasonable expectation of her covering expenses.
Blue Pak lines up in barrier 4, and is looking to take the next step in a career which has been a slow and steady climb to date. It took her a long time to register that initial black type victory, which came at her sixteenth, and most recent, outing. Prior to that that, she’d shown excellent ability when racing in allowances, but had hit the board just once in five attempts at the higher level. Was this the confidence winning boost she needed? Will she need more experience in the Graded ranks before tasting success at yet another higher target? I guess we find out this weekend. On a positive note, she’s won three of her last four, registering triple digits in each victory, and looks to have gained the maturity needed to be a force in this sort of racing. Blue Pak is a scratchbred daughter of Empire Maker / Sadler’s Wells / Seeking The Gold. Trainer Wiz has brought her along patiently thus far, and if she gets a handy run a few lengths off the pace, she could be in a great position to work home at the business end. A big run will not surprise and she represents value at the price on offer.
Joint Effort, drawn 5, is one of several who have chosen this tough ask in their attempts to reach the next level. With impressive wins, registering triple digits, in each of her last two, this sort of race certainly looms as the logical next step. It is of some concern that her only black type win came in an owner restricted stakes against only a handful of opponents, but owner restricted races don’t come any tougher than those at DelPenn, and that race did carry a half million dollar purse. Prior to that, she took out a rich allowance at this track, so she obviously knows her way around. Joint Effort is a scratchbred daughter of Storm Cat / Seattle Slew / Alydar, owned and trained by Arse2007. She’s currently racing in the best form of her career, and while her ability to mix it with some of her established opposition is problematical, her current excellent form provides plenty of cause for optimism among her connections.
Gate 6 is the starting position for Running Scared, a grand old (forgive the ‘old’) mare who is enjoying a second lease of life, despite never having really surrendered the first one. She’s always been very good, and as she embarks on her fourth year on the track, she’s determined to show that the so-called maturity curve is for wimps. She’s never far away, and despite having just the solitary Graded victory trophy, she’s scored a bucket full of near misses at the top level. The ‘dry patch’ (at the end of her first ‘lease of life’) was perhaps frustrating for connections, but many trainers would envy the formpage. She didn’t win for almost twelve months from August 07, but in that time earned plenty of money, and scored triple digits virtually every time she went to the track. More recently, she’s won three of her last four and her last start 110 proves she still has plenty to offer. Running Scared is a scratchbred six year old daughter of El Prado / Roberto / Raise A Native. She may have won just the single Graded race for Crazyjoe, but she’s banked over 1.3 million dollars by running top races in high class events. She won’t be far away in the run, and her place on the second row of betting simply vindicates her credentials.
Faus Pas, has drawn 7, and if I’m looking for a one word description, that word has to be BIG. Big strike rate, with eleven wins from twenty six. Big bank book. $359k mightn’t be huge in the overall scheme of things, but for a horse whose only attempt at graded racing was an unsuccessful trip to the Equinics, she’s been a most solid and consistent earner throughout her career. But the biggest big belongs to those recent speed ratings. 111 and 113 at her last two simply mean that, if she can bring those numbers to the track against better class opponents, she’s going to give this a real shake. As already mentioned, she’s only had the one tilt at Graded racing, but her black type scorecard has already secured her a future ‘C’ rating in the breeding barn, with three wins and a further three placings at ungraded level. A daughter of Forestry, she’s the first, and most successful of three offspring of moderately performed Seeking The Beat II (Seeking The Gold / Deputy Minister), although lightly raced half sister Brume Retina (Danehill Dancer) looks to also have a bright future. Mharris has been patient in framing the career program for Faux Pas. I’m a little concerned to find she’s the early favorite, considering the lack of Graded experience, but she’s got nothing left to prove at the lower levels, and gives every indication that she’ll achieve even greater success in better races as a five year old.
Otto Arc lines up in barrier 8, and although she was a tad disappointing last time out, her three runs prior stand her in excellent stead for this event. She won each of those three, an allowance and two ungraded stakes, by a minimum of two lengths, and all in impressive times. In fact, a repeat of that 1.41.4 she ran three starts back will put her right in the mix for this. Otto Arc is a scratchbred five year old daughter of Sadler’s Wells / Kingmambo / Buckpasser. She’s taken a bit of time to reach her best, needing seven starts to break her maiden, then progressing steadily through the allowances before stepping up to black type racing for the first time in August 08. Now a winner of eight from twenty one, she’s done enough to convince Baracoon that she deserves a shot at the higher level, and her recent racing proves that she should be able to handle the transition. Early tactics will be interesting. She likes to lead, but but doesn’t need to, and trying to lead here may be suicidal. Look for her to try and slot in not too far off the pace, in the first three or four, and await her chances in the stretch.
Gate 9 is the starting position for Game Girl. She’s the enigma in the race, as she returns to turf racing after having her last fourteen runs on the dirt. She’s been running more than handy races lately, and both her speed figures, and her class performance levels have been good enough to rate her as a solid chance against this level of competition. But the four turf runs on her formpage came reasonably early in her career, when neither of those factors (speed ratings and class) can be compared or considered with any level of accuracy. She ran first, second, third and fourth in those four attempts. On a positive note, the two better results came over the trip she faces here. But those four also included her first try at stakes racing, with the fourth placing being the result. Since then, however, she’s gone on to establish herself as a genuine Graded quality contender. Game Girl is a scratchbred daughter of Stravinsky / Mr. Prospector / A.P. Indy. She can’t be tipped with any degree of confidence, but neither can the Adonis bred and trained four year old be excluded from serious contention.
Wishing Well G alights from the 10 gate and although there’s no doubt that she’s capable of producing at this level, connections must be starting to wonder if she’s become a light of other days. Overall, a winner of fourteen from thirty eight and nearly $900k, she’s been victorious in just one of her last half dozen. Of course, that the glass half empty scenario. Go back just two starts and there’s the evidence that she’s still got it, as she took the prize over this trip in 1.41.6. A repeat of that time puts her right into this race. Wishing Well G is a five year old daughter of Sadler’s Wells from Lure’s Kris (Lure / Sharpen Up), the best performed of the dam’s three progeny to date, although it’s worth noting that older half sister Alluring Niner G (Forty Niner) won four stakes races. She’s been a multiple Graded stakes winner for Zz and is still racing with plenty of heart, if not quite as consistently as she once did. The bookmakers are treating her with plenty of respect, and in a race with lots of speed, she’ll probably be content to sit back and let the others cut away at each other. I’m a tad concerned that she may be nearing the end, but she’s more than capable of making me look foolish for suggesting it
Merry Turfmas is lining up in gate 11, after a fine last start second behind the ultra smart Alayaya in last month’s G1- Sexy Muffins Classic. A year ago this mare could, at best, be described as a plodding allowance type. Racing inconsistently on the dirt, she could put in a decent run, but she was neither reliable nor high class. Connections persevered however, and their patience was rewarded when, in April, after fourteen runs, she returned for a second tilt at the heritage suggested grass racing. By this time she’d decided which surface she preferred and she has gone from strength to strength since, with her career highlight now being a toss up between the win in the G2-Trash Can Mile, three starts ago, or that more recent second last time out. Merry Turfmas hails from a fine family, (how Rob has ended up owning a well bred filly from a top-flight Keely ‘exclusive’ may be cause for much conjecture!). A daughter of Galileo, she’s the fourth offspring of La Run (Machiavellian / Run The Gauntlet), a grade 2 placed producer of two previous black type performers. Now racing in the best form of her career, Cheadle has every right to expect another huge effort this weekend.
Barrier 12 is the starting gate for Crushing Ignorance, and I could find myself in real strife here, if I destroy her chances yet again by selecting her to win. She’s won three of five on the grass, and, as connections are only too well aware, the other two were races where this writer confidently predicted victory. Zwango wisely decided to eliminate the possibility of yet another ‘kiss of death’, by racing her most recently in an ungraded stake, where she had no difficulty in returning to the winning list. Her form speaks for itself. Her last four runs have all returned strong triple digits, and include a win in the G3-Panhandle Oaks, the aforementioned, most recent ungraded win, and a solid second placing behind Alayaya in the G1-Solstice Oaks. Interesting, both this runner, and Merry Turfmas finished second, each beaten a length and three quarters, in the two recent Grade 1 victories of Alayaya, so we should be in for a mighty contest here. Crushing Ignorance is a four year old scratchbred daughter of Pulpit / Storm Bird / Nashua. She’s one of the major threats yet again.
Awaiting the starter in stall 12 we see Dubawi Quest, scratchbred daughter of Dubawi / Rainbow Quest / Dixieland Band. Once again she provides us with something of a problem as we try to summarize her chances, although as her strike rate becomes less impressive, confidence naturally wanes. She’s only won two from eighteen, not an impressive ratio in this lineup. But on her day, we know she can cover the ground in almost the sort of time required this week. Her last victory was back in June of last year, and her patient connections have raced her just five times since, with ungraded fourth and fifth her best results. Comparing the form lines, it’s almost impossible to see her turning the tables on those rated above her in the qualification order. She has the ability, at her best, to take home a share of the spoils, but she’s been off the pace too often to approach that scenario with any great confidence. Xssessiv will be hoping Dubawi Quest can better that third placing in the G3-Tai-Bo Stakes last May, but that top run is now fading into the mists of time, and there is a lot of very smart competition lining up in this.
Etrusca, drawn the outside, looks to take the next step upwards in her career. Currently racing at her all time best, she put together three consecutive wins before fading last time out, in her first attempt at Graded company. Did she have a problem with the class? Was it the extra half furlong (as we know, so many horses love the mile or eight and a half, but can’t add that extra hundred yards)? Perhaps she just needed the taste of Graded competition before she could measure up to that standard. In any event, supporters are sure to be willing to forgive that last run, and concentrate on the few before, where she looked to establish that she’s got what it takes. Etrusca is a four year old daughter of Medicean, from Grisella (Buddha / Kayf Tara), a dual stakes placed mare whose only other progeny Marbore (Elusive Quality) was also twice stakes placed. Strangely, the mare had a year off last season, but with her progeny appearing to be getting better, she may be busy this year. Perhaps the breeder deliberately employs an ‘alternate year’ strategy, and if so, it looks to work nicely. But I digress. 2aussie knows that this mare faces a tough task in this very strong Grade 3 event, but connections still have the right to be confident, as she’s been racing in top form. She represents a genuine chance and a good value bet.
Summary and Selections:
The most significant formline in trying to summarise this event, comes from a horse which isn’t here. Despite the frantic efforts of club officials, connections of Alayaya have decided to flit off to sunny
Crushing Ignorance to win. Sorry Zwango, I was planning to spare you the pain this week, but 8/1….Hey…Across the board forever
Merry Turfmas for second. Only the price saves her from The Kiss Of Death.
Multiple Mainiac for third. Good draw. Good Odds. Always runs a good race
The Market:
4/1 – Faux Pas
6/1 – Running Scared, Merry Turfmas
8/1 – Crushing Ignorance
9/1 – Otto Arc, Wishing Well G
Qualification Order – Class Rating Position:
Merry Turfmas – 28
Wishing Well G – 46
Crushing Ignorance – 50
Monsun JR CB – 74
Otto Arc – 161