San Francisco Capitan Handicap
The San Fransisco Capitan Handicap is run over 12 furlongs, and sees some great 4 year old and up turf specialists, however one horse attracts almost all publicity, Wrecking Crew(IRE). He is the Breeders Bowl Turf Champion from last year and may be a reason, why we only see a field of 8 runners, as it looks like other turf stars seem to shy away from facing the superstar. The only other Grade 1 winners in the field are 2nd favourite Alum Bay and Galiesis, but both horses chances seem a bit suspicious with their recent struggles. But before we go more into detail about the way the race could go, let’s take a look at the field:
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=36865
20 Races – 5 Wins – 780,755$
The 4yo Galileo colt hasn’t won a race since his win in the Irish Derby in August last year, that day he beat today’s favourite Wrecking Crew, but from then on he faced a lot of struggles, he got crashed for a 13th place in the Breeders bowl Turf, and his last two races have only been slightly better. Last time out he ran a 103 in the Ferdichenko Cup, a similar grade 2 12f Turf race in japan, that performance led to a 7th place finish. His main concerns are his usual quick midrace sprint, which he seems to have lost, in both his Grade 1wins last year, he fell back until the midway point, but showed a lot of speed from then on, to close 10 lengths disadvantages in a heartbeat. It’s doubtful he can find that speed again, and so his chances for today seem very small.
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=57152
16 Races – 4 Wins – 152,180$
The 4yo North light Colt looks like a good ALW horse, but so far his stakes performances have not been impressive at all. His last win dates back to October 08, when he won a 9.5f ALW race, with a speed of 106, his lifetime high so far. Last time out he tested 14f for the first time, and returned 2nd in a stakes race, with a nice speed of 103, he had the early lead, but was caught on the stretch and beaten by 4 lengths. He usually prefers stalking a hot speed, but may be forced to take the early lead in the small field again. The 2nd place was his best finish in a stakes race so far, and he’d like to build on that, but todays Grade 2 may be a step too high.
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=128857
30 Races – 6 Wins – 1,419,388$
The 5yo High Chapparal Horse is a seasoned veteran, who started his 5yo campaign on a high note, winning a 13f stakes race with a nice speed of 108, he still looks sharp and ready to take on the great 4yos he will have to beat today. His career moment so far came in October 07, when he won the Canada Turf, a win that put him among the top 12f horses of the world. He showed some nice races in 08, but did not get another Graded win, and had to wait till September for his first win as a 4yo. He closed the season with a disappointing performance in the Allied Assault Handicap, but would like to forget that day. He is the 2nd favourite today, and will likely run way behind the leaders early, as he usually is a very slow starter. However may likely be heading for home with the fastest speed on the stretch.
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=47029
21 Races – 5 Wins – 231,428$
The 5yo Giant’s Causeway Horse comes in very fresh, usually taking long rest periods between his races, which explains his low number of starts for a 5yo. However his results have been mixed recently, he was on a high wave, when winning the Grade 3 Fusahoochie Turf Classic last August, but his trips to Grade 1 races have brought a lot of disappointment afterwards. So a step back to ALW level at the end of the year was a logic step, he showed some progression recently, and last time out won a NW2y 11f ALW with a nice 103, but it’s doubtful that will be enough today. He looks an outside shot, that usually likes to stalk the pace, but can also take an early lead, which may be necessary today, if there is no speed in the race.
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=137496
25 Races – 3 Wins – 82,258$
The 4yo Common Grounds Colt makes his first start at the Stakes level today, and facing the Breeders Bowl turf winner at 12f in a Grade 2 may be too much excitment for him. He posted a lifetime high 94 in his last race, which likely looks about 10 speed points behind even contending in todays race. Most notable about the young horse is that it took him 12 winless tries on dirt, to get entered into a turf race for the first time, which he indeed won, but 2 ALW wins may be the top of the line for him.
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=132897
23 Races – 5 Wins – 196,884$
The 5yo Zieten Horse is another one making his first Stakes start in this small field Grade 2. While the small field may have attracted some ALW horses to enter, the class in this race may still be way above his head, last time out he ran a 99 to finish 2nd over 13f, which was a nice comeback after making a wrong step in the start before, where he finished distanced, but still looks a tad slow for today’s field. He had his greatest success, when taking the early lead, but todays speed may not allow him that.
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=148545
16 Races – 7 Wins – 2,462,878$
The 4yo Sadler’s Wells Colt is one of the biggest superstars in the sim currently, his win in the Breeders Bowl Turf catapulted the horse up to star status. He could show, that the 115 speed was no fluke, by winning a stakes race with a 111 in his next race, and a 109 to finish 3rd in the Buck Dharma Handicap last time out. He finished 5th in the Derby de English and 2nd in the Irish Derby, showing his liking of the 12f distance, but no performance can compare to a Breeders Bowl win. It’s likely he’ll once again show a slow start, and show his winning speed on the stretch, entering as the 2/1 favourite, he surely looks the best pick to win the race, as none of the other entries can match his recent speeds and performances. Put your money on Wrecking Crew, I’ll do with mine.
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=63432
11 Races – 5 Wins – 212,672$
The 4yo Galileo Colt has recently caught the eye of racing fans, when finishing 3rd in the Panhandle Park Derby and 2nd in the Grade 2 Sanders Stakes, in both races he showed his closing speed over the 9f trip. The biggest question marks are likely his inexperience and the question, if he can stay 12f, which i doubt a lot. His longest test was a 11f stakes race, in which he ran dead last with a 86 speed, and it took him to cut his race distance down to 9f to be succesful, so likely the 12f trip will be too far for him. He could challenge, if he can repeat his 109 speed from the 9f Graded Trip, but too me, it’s more likely he’ll not get his quick speed after running 12f.
This leaves us with one big cut favourite, and thats Wrecking Crew, who has both the speed and the stamina advantage over his rivals. Look for either The Underground or Steel Giant to set the early pace, but likely it will not be quick enough to get enough lengths between them and Wrecking Crew, who will likely take the lead, when the field reaches the stretch. Anything else than a dominating win by the BB Turf Champ would be a sursprise.