Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Mile
Sim hall-of-famer MY MESSIAH headlines a field of twenty horses that will travel a mile over a fast dirt surface. The four-year-old colt will prove difficult to beat, as he is undefeated in four G1 starts this year. Eight three-year-olds will also take on the older horses in this competitive race.
Let’s take a closer look at the field:
1 – VOICES CALLING, 57/1 (owner asrstar25 – Orphan Racing) – After a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile last year, this colt has had a pretty good three-year-old year. He started the year with a victory in the Grade I in the Vermont is 4 Lovers back in February. A start in the Bluegrass Derby did not much of a result, as he was never involved and finished 15th. Since then, he’s come back and hit the board in his two subsequent Grade I starts, including a career-best SP of 109 in his last start back in August. This spot will be tough and a big step up, but he could certainly race better than his odds would indicate.
2 – DREIT, 57/1 (owner americanasr – Orphan Racing) – Out of post two, we find another three-year-old that has been in some high-level stakes races this year. After peaking with a win in the G1 Rod Edwards Commemorative Derby back in June, he has struggled to recapture that form. Going down the Eddie Haskell/Travelers path, he finished 13th and eighth, respectively. I think the cutback in distance will help here, as he was doing well at this type of distance around the beginning of the year. This race, though, is a much different animal, so he’ll have to take a big step forward and take advantage of the cutback to be competitive in this spot.
3 – CAMPO MASSIMO, 9/1 (owner wtas02 – MIDAS) – The most experienced horse in the field will be leaving from post three, as he will be making his 27th career start. This will be his first G1 start since August of last year, so this will be a pretty sizable step up from some of the competition he’s been facing recently. That being said, there are some nice racing lines in the PPs – highlighted by a commanding victory in the G3 Big D Park Handicap back in May. He won by 3 1/2 lengths and put up an impressive SP of 119. His recent races have not been as good, so he’ll need to recapture that type of performance to have a chance against this talented group.
4 – MISCHIEF IN HOUSE, 13/1 (owner ddkstables19) – Making his second straight start in this race, this four-year-old son of Into Mischief has rounded into pretty good form over the past several months. He has not finished worse than second in his past four starts dating back to May, and has registered an SP of at least 110 in each of those starts. This colt did pretty well in this race last year as a three-year-old, finishing a solid fifth just three lengths back. He has faded in all of his recent starts from early leads, so the cutback in distance may help here. He’ll have a good shot in here.
5 – BIG LASAGNA, 10/1 (owner tarton5 – Only Stayers) – After a lengthy drought of over a year with no in-the-money finishes from late last year to this year, he saw a return to form when he won the G2 Middle Ground Mile in Ontario back at the end of August. He has pretty much exclusively been racing at this distance for over a year, so there doesn’t seem to be much question as to how he’ll handle this distance. He showed last time out that he still has some gas in the tank as a six-year old – now the question is whether he will be able to get over the hump and snag his first G1 win.
6 – ‘IT’S DO OR DIE’, 27/1 (owner the2mavericks – DelPenn National) – In post six, we find a talented three-year-old son of Curlin who is coming off a very impressive win at this distance in the G2 Bettis Handicap last month. After taking the early lead, he pulled away to win by 2 1/2 lengths in the end. After struggling on the Derby trail earlier in the year, including a 14th-place finish in the Derby itself, he’s found more success at shorter distances, so this seems like a very logical next step for this colt. Of the three-year-olds in this field, he seems like one of the more likely ones to contend.
7 – ROAD RAGE READY, 44/1 (owner stockswami2) – Another three-year-old searching for his first G1 win, this colt is making his second appearance at the Breeders’ Bowl. He faded to tenth in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile last November, and has been in fairly inconsistent form since. He does have a couple of graded stakes victories, but just has never been able to make that next step again G1 competition. In four career G1 starts, he has not hit the board in any of them. Now, his most recent race in August was his best showing – a fourth-place finish in the G1 Prince’s Knight. Even so, his SP numbers suggest he would need a big step forward to get that first G1 victory in this spot.
8 – UNBEARABLE PHAROAH, 92/1 (owner kingodin – Hoosier Racing) – Easily the longest shot on the board at nearly triple-digit odds, this son of American Pharoah has a better resume than you would expect, with two graded stakes victories to his name. That includes a G1 victory in the Dell Computer Futurity last August. He also had a respectable showing in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Dirt Sprint last year, but his form has largely flattened this year. After a really nice win in the G2 Sleepy Fan Stakes back in February, he finished at the back of the field in his subsequent two starts. He will need to take quite a leap to keep up with this group.
9 – WILLYOUSOFUNNY, 10/1 (owner Sadie – Northwest Racing Circuit) – Here we find another horse in this field that has been largely honing his craft against G2 and G3 competition over the course of his career. He has strung together eight straight starts with SP numbers of 110 or more, an impressive showing of consistency at a high level. He has three G3 wins, including winning two editions of the Emerald Downs Mile. This will obviously be a noticeable step up in class compared to what he has been facing, but his consistent results argue that he can compete with this group. The lack of G1 starts on the PPs adds some mystery to what he is capable of in this race, but he has a shot.
10 – FILLIN’ MY CUP, 6/1 (owner beerkeg13 – MIDAS) – The favorite in this field, he is searching for his first win in nearly a year and a half. Now, the six-year-old gelding has only raced four times since then, but has just failed to find the winner’s circle in any of them. His last start in the Cosmopolitan Handicap was a very solid second, but was back in May. One of those other races was in this race last November, when he finished a disappointing ninth as the second choice in the field. This is a tough horse to read – he has two races with SP numbers of 125, but is his best form behind him. He’ll be one of the keys to the race.
11 – DISHIN AND SWISHIN, 58/1 (owner moneyballstable – Hoosier Racing) – This is one of the three-year-old entries that is really tough to figure out. His odds are north of 50/1 and he has yet to even cross $200,000 in career earnings, but the SP trend in his past couple of races has been promising, and I’ve seen these short, quick improvements yield good results in the past for three-year-olds. The knocks on him are the lack of a good G1 performance – he has finished eighth and 12th in those starts. This does seem to be the distance he prefers, and if he were to build on that last start, he could sneak into a trifecta at a nice price.
12 – GUILD DE GUILD, 7/1 (owner amir1609 – Elite Racing Club) – We find the defending champion of this race here in post twelve, and he is the second choice on the morning line at 7/1. After that race, he struggled in his following two G1 starts, but had two dominant wins to follow those up. That includes a nearly five-length victory in the G3 Birkenstock back in May. His last start was not as sharp, finishing seventh in another G3 event. He is one of the trickier ones to handicap in this field – he clearly has the potential to win this race like last year, but was the last race a sign of a bit of slump like he had around the New Year?
13 – ON THE UP AND OUT, 13/1 (owner astapor2 – GR Simsters) – This million-dollar earner is going to try to break out of his recent string of third-place finishes, as he has been in consistently good form throughout the year. Some of his best work has been at this mile distance, including what is likely his signature victory last November in the Sterile Mile, where he came from behind to win at 46/1 odds. That was his first race against older horses, and he has only finished off the board once since then. He has seemed to plateau a bit over the past year or so, but even a small improvement from his recent form easily puts him in contention to win here.
14 – BOUND TO BLAME ME, 62/1 (owner borrowed9 – Orphan Racing) – This three-year-old will face older horses for the first time in this spot, fresh off of his best SP number of his career – a 106 in the Travelers Stakes back in August, where he finished fifth. This will be a pretty sizable cutback in distance, as he was racing in the Bluegrass Derby and The New Yorker in the spring, which are much longer races. Plus, the Travelers he’s just coming out of was a longer race too. I’m not sure the cutback in distance will be a huge help here. He likes to come from the back, and that could be tricky in a field of this size.
15 – MARKING TIMES, 13/1 (owner givencovid – GR Simsters) – This four-year-old colt will try the Dirt Mile this year after finishing a disappointing 18th in the Classic last year as a three-year-old. His form has been inconsistent this year, as he has yet to hit the board in four starts following a nice win in the G1 Glenn Kegasus back in January. Since then, he’s had a few good races including a pair of fourth-place efforts again G1 competition. His last start, though, in the G3 Emerald Downs Mile, doesn’t instill a ton of confidence. He faded to ninth, although he was only 2 1/2 lengths back in a close race. A possible win contender if he puts it all together.
16 – MY MESSIAH, 8/1 (owner worldclass19 – Orphan Racing) – The Sim hall-of-famer has now racked up over six million dollars in career earnings, and will be looking to add more. He comes into this race hot…winning five and a row dating back to last December, all against G1 competition. His last loss was at the Breeders’ Bowl Classic last year, where he struggled and finished 16th. That likely explains the decision to cut back to a mile here after racing at 9 furlongs all year. He hasn’t raced at this distance in two years, but is arguably the sharpest horse coming into this race. Can he shake off that Classic loss last year and handle the shorter distance?
17 – SEEKING GOLD FRONT, 9/1 (owner dkstables25) – This five-year-old has been pretty lightly raced this year, as this will be just his fourth start of the season. After a solid second in the G1 Sterile Mile last November, he has yet to finish in the money this year in those three previous starts, with a sixth-place finish and a pair of fifths. He’s been racing against some good competition in these races, but just hasn’t been able to get to the winner’s circle recently. He certainly has the talent to do well in this race, although with such a short price, I’d be inclined to look for more value elsewhere given his struggles this year.
18 – INTO POETRY, 16/1 (owner intoasr – Orphan Racing) – This four-year-old colt is trying to make a comeback after it appeared his stakes career was in the rear-view mirror. Following a win in the G2 Felipe Alou last March, he did not hit the board in his subsequent seven starts, all G1 and G2 races. After going back to the allowance ranks, he had a nice win in a race back in the spring. Then, after a rough ungraded stakes start, he won his next start in the G2 Insulin Cup. He followed that up with a second last time out in the Hoffa Cup, where he had a career-best SP of 115. He found another gear late this summer and now into the fall. Can that improvement continue?
19 – WICKED VIOLENCE, 33/1 (owner mysterycat – Empire State Racing) – This son of Violence will be making his first G1 start since last August, when he finished a solid third in the Dell Computer Futurity. He had a nice end to his two-year-old season, and has been racing in the G2/G3 ranks this season. He has been racing largely well, and comes into this race off of his best career start in the G2 South Bend Derby, where he won by nearly a length and had an SP of over 110 for the first time in his career. This will be a tough task facing the older horses, but he seems to be rounding into good form just at the right time. That’s what he’ll need to do well here.
20 – TAPS DEVIL, 11/1 (owner kingranch – DelPenn National) – As we get to the outside of this 20-horse field, we find one of the older horses in the race – a five-year-old horse by Tapit who will be making his 27th lifetime start. He started his career on the dirt, went to the turf for a while before returning to the dirt. His return to the dirt has been successful, as it includes wins in the G1 Euro Dirt Mile Final last November and the February Stakes in Japan back in February. Following those wins, he really struggled in his next two starts, finishing tenth or worse. He showed up in a HOT race last time out and put up a lifetime best SP of 119. That was an impressive performance, but it was a glorified workout. Could that race be a sign of a big effort here? Tough to say.
My Picks:
(9) WILLYOUSOFUNNY, 10/1 – I can’t say I envisioned picking a horse on top who hasn’t raced in a G1, but he’s raced well at the mile distance and those Emerald Downs Mile races seem to draw pretty well for a G3 race.
(16) MY MESSIAH, 8/1 – I suspect he makes up for the lackluster Classic performance last year with a much better effort here. That being said, I’m not sure he’s able to make it six wins in a row.
(6) ‘IT’S DO OR DIE’, 27/1 – My favorite of the three-year-olds. He seems to be rounding into really nice form over the past few months, which is usually key when tackling the older horses. Nice value here.
(4) MISCHIEF IN HOUSE, 13/1 – He’s just been so consistent over the summer and now fall. He put together a good effort in this race last year, and I think he’ll fare well again this time around.
(18) INTO POETRY, 16/1 – I love a good comeback story, and after a lengthy struggle in graded stakes races and a trip back to the allowance ranks, he has found another gear since August. I think he still has the talent to make some noise in a race like this.
Good luck to all!