Frio Frio Mile

Welcome to rainy spain, actually I thought, if you could expect a sunny day in one part of the world in February it had to be Spain, but well, not for this interesting race. The Frio Frio Mile can be seen as an early prep race leading into the various 2000 Guineas races in the European and Auastralian Racing Circuit, some of the top 8f horses on turf have made their way, including a few Graded Winners. The Grade 2 race features 10 runners on a yielding turf, which could set up an interesting race, with most horses with no experience on the off-track.

Let’s take a look at the runners:

#1 DANGEROUS MAGIC(IRE)  5/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=164982

7 Races – 5 Wins – 209,700$

Coming in with a Win% of nearly 80%, the Danehill Dancer colt has turned into a real mile specialist already, with 5 starts at 8f in a row, resulting in 4 wins, including the Grade 3 Grand Critter Stakes. His only defeat in that span came in the Grade 1 Epiphany Too Handicap, a very strong contest, where he finished 5^th with a speed of 95. Last time out he used an NW4x ALW as a prep race, and won that with a nice speed of 97, slowly showing maturation. Today he’ll make the next step into Guineas Consideration, in this Grade 2 event, a class, where he has not won so far. He likes to take the early lead in a slow paced race, but can also stalk, if the leader sets a too fast pace. He’s been playing around with his running style recently, and it has to be seen, if he guns for the early lead today. He has not run on an off-track so far.

#2 CHILL OF A JOURNEY(IRE)  6/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=96791

6 Races – 4 Wins – 225,390$

Another 3yo Dylan Thomas Colt, that looks ready for sim glory, he has been flying in his starts so far, with his best race in November, winning the Grade 3 Apparently juvenile, winning with a classy 99, only missing the magic mark by 1. That capped off a 4 race win streak, which included 2 stakes races over 7.5f, and the Grade 3 over 9f. Last time out, he faced London scene in the Grade 3 Panhandle Park Derby, and while leading the whole way, got caught on the stretch and dropped into 4^th place, with the 9f test looking a bit far. He’ll likely set the early pace, as he took almost all his wins wire-to-wire. The 8f should suit him good, and it has to be seen, how he can overcome the setback from the last race. He has not run on an off-track yet.

#3 TOBYHANNA(KY)  7/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=156486

9 Races – 5 Wins – 645,015$

The Perfect Soul colt is running a very traditional prep route for the English 2000 Guineas, which will see him take a huge step today, as he tackles the 1 mile distance for the first time. He has been very classy at 7f, and won the Grade 1 Duetoburst Stakes, with a nice speed of 96.

He missed the next big step, when finishing 4^th, but only beaten by 1 ½ lengths, with a 97 in the Roadting Weenies Stakes, a Grade 3 7f race. He brings a Grade 1, Grade 3 and a Stakes win into todays race, which shows his experience he got in only 9 starts already. He seems ready to take another huge step, and I expect him to break the magic 100 speed barrier in todays race, because his pedigree suggests he can stay. He likes to run from way off the pace, and take huge length trails already in the first quarter of the race, closing with a lot of speed.

Looks very comfortable in off-track races, won a 7f ALW on good turf in July, and was 2^nd in his 2^nd start overall on a good turf, let’s see how he fares with yielding turf.

#4 TARVOLD(ENG)  13/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=87943

6 Races – 2 Wins – 80,521$

The 3yo Pivotal colt comes as the most unexperienced starter of all, he makes his first start not only at graded level, but at stakes level at all. He has won an ALW2NL last time out, with a nice 94 speed, but I think, that he lacks winning spirit, and takes a too huge step in classes, he may be better off runing out Allowances and then tackling stakes races, as he just looks to mature very slowly. Would be a huge suprise if he can come through in the Top 3 today.

No off-track starts yet.

#5 BESSA RESERVE(KY)  7/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=102581

8 Races – 3 Wins – 67,340$

The Seeking the Gold colt looked just like an average horse, when making his first 5 starts on dirt, breaking his maiden only in the 4^th try, and then finishing 10^th in an ALW. But then in November he switched to the grass, making his turf debut, he got 2 wins in ALW races, both 8f ALW races with speeds of 91 and 92. In his 3^rd turf start 4 weeks ago, he ran a 100, but was only 2^nd in a 8f stakes race, not able to close the ¾ of a length gap on the stretch. It has to be seen, how he can make the transition to Graded Racing, without winning a stakes race, but his speed surely makes him a Top 3 contender in todays race. Like most horses has not run on an off-track.

#6 A SKUNK VICE(JPN)  16/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=155625

8 Races – 3 Wins – 236,340$

The 3yo Alkaseed colt looked like a likely challenger for turf classic glory, when winning the Grade 3 Tiny Toes Stakes in August last year, as his 89 winning speed was one of the fastest mile speeds for 2yos at that time. However, his maturation process seems to have stalled afterwards, he finished 9^th in the High Flyer Stakes, and 14^th and dead last in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf, which was enough for his owner to decide giving him a lengthy break, and researching, why he was defeated that badly. He came out in a prep ALW over 6.5f last month, finishing 2^nd, with an unusual early speed leader style. Let’s see if that change of running style worked for todays race, and what the future will bring the young colt. Has no off-track experience.

#7 TYCOON WELLS(FR)  5/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=13768

8 Races – 4 Wins – 256,475$

The 3yo Anabaa Colt took the same prep route, as Tobyhanna did, but with a big change, he ran in the Duetoburst Stakes and the Roasting Weenies Stakes, after taking the challenge of the Breeders Bowl Turf Juvenile before, a race, where he didn’t have his best day, finishing 8^th with an 88 in the 8f test. Today he’ll run the 8f distance for the 2^nd time, but he has experience over 8.5f, when he was 2^nd in the Flying Saucer Stakes last September. He comes in breaking the magic speed number of 100 in the Roasting Weenies Stakes, winning the 7f Grade 3 by ¼ length, getting the close lead on the stretch. Being very versatile, he usually likes to stalk a quick pace, just closing in on the leader on the stretch, as effective as this move can be, he depends on a quick early pace, to not get caught badly on the stretch. Has once run on good turf, and finished 2^nd in his very first race, which doesn’t tell a lot.

#8 BUDA STORM(KY)  6/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=14482

8 Races – 3 Wins – 165,980$

The 3yo Rahy colt is another 8 time starter in todays field, and just like others he came very close breaking the magic 100 speed number, but was 1 short last time out in the Roasting Weanies Stakes, which sees 3 of the Top 4 in todays race. He finished 3^rd, just ¼ of a lgnth back, just loosing a photo for 2^nd, and being beaten by that days winner Tycoon Wells. He had 2 spells on dirt before, but those proofed unsuccesful, when he finished 8^th in the Grade 1 Twinhollow Trainer Championship, a race where he never got going. He is a 2 time stakes winner, that looks well rested, attacking the 8f distance for the 2^nd time in his career, after a 4^th place in the High Flyer Stakes last year. With no prefered running style, we can expect him anywhere from stalking the pace to mid-pack. No off-track starts.

#9 RACING FORM(KY)  10/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=125807

8 Races – 2 Wins – 143,600$

The Dynaformer Colt faces a very big challenge in todays race, he tackles the Grade 2 race in his first start on turf. He had a useful 2yo campaign, which saw him qualify for the Breeders Bowl Juvenile, but he looked helpless finishing 13^th in the 8.5f test on dirt. After that he was 12^th and 6^th in a Grade 3 and an ungraded Stakes race, which showed his majorly disapppointing form. His major win came in the Grade 2 Camel Juvenile, which he won with a speed of 88. It is a big question, how he can stand the new surface on a very high level, expect anything from a win to a complete bust. Has not run an off-track race.

#10 LONDON SCENE(ENG)  4/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=158187

9 Races – 4 Wins – 213,565$

The Cockney rebel Colt has made a huge progress in his last start, winning the Grade 3 Panhandle Park Derby over 9f in a speed of 106, topping his previous career best by 12 speed points. Such a huge progress leads to a big part of his maturation coming related with his running style. He is a deep speed closer, that usually starts very slow, relying on a fast speed in the closing stages of the race. Being a 3 time stakes winner, one of them the Grade 3 last time, he takes a step back in distance, but is used to win at even shorter distances. It will have to be seen, if the last race is a fluke, or if he can confirm the strong showing. Has finsihed 2^nd on a good turf in a 6f stakes race in June.

Overall it’s very difficult to handicap, on a firm turf, I’d pick London Scene, who had an outstanding run in the Panhandle Park Derby, but the 8f distance and the yielding course may be a bit too much speaking against him, I guess we’ll find out today, who loves a deep slow turf and perhaps has a career as an off-track runner ahead of him, perhaps we see a huge upset.