G1 Birmingham Stakes Preview

#1 Into Bookworms (Empire State Racing) 7/1 : The top-ranked 3-year-old dirt route filly in the game, and she’s coming in off a strong win in the G1 Sister Hen. A winner of $1.3 million, she’s hit the exacta in 8 of 9 career starts, the only blemish was a respectable 5th in the G1 Bluegrass Oaks. The added distance shouldn’t be an issue for a filly this consistent and classy. Can she further cement her status as the queen of the division?

#2 Tapitar (Down Under Racing) 20/1 : Longest shot on the board and was a bit inconsistent early on, but seemed to turn a corner when stretched to 10 furlongs, taking down the Stormy Project Dirt Filly Memorial back in April. Followed that up with a 3rd at 12 furlongs in the G3 Oaks De Swedish, and now cuts back to the distance she might like best. One of the few with proven form at 10 furlongs, but the speed figures still need a jump to compete with the top fillies here.

#3 Take The Cone Off (GR Simsters) 6/1 : One of two in here for this trainer (Given) and she’s the morning line favorite. Kicked off her 3-year-old season with a 10-length blowout in a listed stake, then followed it up with a win in the G1 Full Body Suit, capping a 5-race win streak. She didn’t get the win in her last two, but a 3rd in the G1 Bluegrass Oaks and a runner-up finish in the G1 Sister Hen were both strong runs on the triple crown trail. Can she turn the tables on familiar rivals today?

#4 Laugh At Stupidity (Orphan Racing) 11/1 : One of two in here for this trainer (Tenpoint). She was on the outside looking in during her early graded tries, but broke through with a win in the G3 Timber Stakes two back. Came 6th in the G1 Sister Hen last out, and four of the top five from that race are back in this field. She’s yet to beat this caliber of filly and will need a jump in her speed figure to change that.

#5 Just Seen Trouble (Orphan Racing) 10/1 : Has 5 wins from 7 starts, including the G1 Bluegrass Oaks on that memorable first Saturday in May. Took the G2 Louisiana Oaks before that, stamping herself as one of the division’s best, but we haven’t seen her since. A bit surprising she’s been on the shelf this long, so the hope is she’s sound and ready. Can she jump right back into the conversation for top 3-year-old filly?

#6 Code Runner (Orphan Racing) 16/1 : One of two in here for this trainer (Tenpoint). Trainer takes a similar approach here as the #2, cutting her back in distance after a solid 2nd-place finish in the 12-furlong G3 Oaks De Swedish. That was a nice bounce-back effort following an 8th in the G1 California Oaks. She’s a step below the top fillies on speed figures, but one of the few in here with experience going longer. Can that foundation give her an edge?

#7 Mo Hannah (No Residency) 9/1 : The graded sprints in the spring didn’t go as planned, but the move back to routing in allowance company may have been just what she needed. Rattled off two dominant wins by a combined 17 ½ lengths, then stepped back up with a strong 2nd in the Queen of Mali Dirt Filly Challenge going today’s 10 furlongs. Looks like she’s found her stride, can she keep it rolling in G1 company?

#8 Guikaze (GR Simsters) 9/1 : One of two in here for this trainer (Given). Excitement hit a high when she pulled off the win in the G1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers back in February. Since then, she’s run well without quite breaking through, finishing 4th in both the G1 Bluegrass Oaks and the G1 Sister Hen. She’s been holding her own against the top fillies in the division, and you get the sense she’s not far off. Can she find that extra gear and get back to the top?

#9 Rhea Ripley (Orphan Racing) 10/1 : Her lone graded try came last August as a 2-year-old, and it was a complete bust. This marks her return to graded company, and she’s coming in with some momentum, a front-running 2nd in the Orphans Dirt Oaks followed by a win in the Exile on Main St Dirt Filly Route. Her only try at 10 furlongs before that didn’t go well, but was it the off-track or the distance? Time to find out.

#10 Covert Security (Orphan Racing) 9/1 : Reeled off four straight wins earlier in her career, including a gutsy score against the boys in the G2 Wall Street. Followed that up with a big second at 22-1 in the G1 Bluegrass Oaks, but couldn’t keep the momentum going with a flat 5th in the G1 Sister Hen last out. Maybe she bounced off the big effort, can she rebound and get back in the mix?

#11 Storm Curlin Gal (No Residency) 12/1 : Hasn’t won since June of last year, so it’s tough to picture her getting back to the winner’s circle against a group like this. That said, she hasn’t been running poorly, with three runner-up finishes during a steady run through graded stakes company. Comes in off a 2nd in the G3 Denny Tario Oaks. She might be just a cut below the top tier here. Can she prove otherwise?

#12 Dot Net Today (Empire State Racing) 10/1 :  A very intriguing addition to a group of fillies that have gotten used to seeing each other. She’s been patiently brought along in allowance company, and two back crushed a NW2L field by 17 ½ lengths. If that wasn’t impressive enough, she jumped straight into G1 company and won the G1 The Royal Heiress Stakes by nearly 4 lengths. Both of those wins came at 12 furlongs, so the cutback to 10 adds an interesting wrinkle. Will the shorter trip take away her edge?

#13 Nhill Annoyance (MIDAS) 9/1 : Makes her first G1 appearance after working her way through multiple G2 and G3 events. She hasn’t been able to grab a win at those levels, so asking her to take down a G1 might be a stretch. That said, she is coming in off a strong 2nd in the G2 First Stake Oaks, and that effort came with a nice bump in speed figure. If she can build on that, is a surprise finish in the cards?

#14 Rare Purchase (British and European Racing Club) 13/1 : Won three straight against allowance company earlier, but hasn’t been able to break through since stepping into stakes competition. That said, she might be coming in off her best effort yet, a 4th in the G2 Pacific Coast Highway, where she showed some late interest back against the girls. Still likely a cut below the best in here. Can she close the gap with another step forward?

Field In Numbers

Horse	Speed – L3	CPU Value	D/R Rank	Total Points
Take The Cone Off	106	1030	5	41
Into Bookworms	104.8	981	1	40
Covert Security	104.4	926	8	35
Just Seen Trouble	103.4	918	7	33
Guikaze	102.9	901	13	26
Nhill Annoyance	102.4	915	36	26
Mo Hannah	103.8	914	206	22
Dot Net Today	102.4	910	72	21
Storm Curlin Gal	100.4	837	17	18
Laugh At Stupidity	101.8	873	46	18
Rhea Ripley	98.5	891	148	14
Rare Purchase	98	827	59	11
Code Runner	98.5	794	161	9
Tapitar	96.8	735	256	3