The Concern Spay Memorial

Welcome to Colorado Race Track, where we find that it has rained quite a bit this week, so that the track came up on the good side, with 3yo fillies in the race, this will be a tricky one to predict, as most have no experience on an off-track. The race feature several fillies making the step up to stakes races from right after winning their MSW or an ALW. Overall the 6f test should be a nice sprint challenge and wide open, but let’s take a look at the runners:

#1 PAUL OR PAULA BG(SAF) 5/2

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=159275

11 Races – 3 Wins – 100,452$

The 3yo Black Minnaloushe filly has been made the favourite by the bookies, however her latest races have not been her best, and she in parts already looked overraced in her last 2 tries.

However she has a nice record on a good dirt, she won her maiden in July on good dirt, and finished 2^nd in a stakes race in August. Running in a Grade 3 in october was way over her head, she finished 11^th in a 4.5f sprint, and then was 5^th in a stakes race. Last time out, she ran a nice 79, which was good for a 3^rd place in an ALW. Overall she looks well experienced, but a tad slower than some more inexperienced fillies.

#2 STORMY VALLEY(CAN) 9/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=3334

1 Race – 1 Win – 6,240$

The 3yo Peaks and Valleys Filly won her Maiden over 6f dirt with an impressive 83, 2 lengths ahead of her rivals, Peaks and Valleys is a seldom used sire, who currently only has 12 active 3yos, and Stormy Valley is one of only 2 winners sired by the stallion. She is basicly a big question mark, while her maiden may be impressive, a step up to stakes races is something different.

#3 SKEETER LAND(FL) 6/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=157359

10 Races – 3 Wins – 53,455$

The 3yo Saint Afleet filly is another filly, that already brings an experience of 10 races into the contest, however she has not won since July 08, when she won a 4.5f ALW race. Her stakes tries have resulted in 2 2nds and 2 4ths so far. Last time out she ran a 71 over 5.5f, for a 4^th place in a stakes race, however her performances before in 6.5f tries have been better at 77 and 78. She needs an early lead, and then tries to go for wire-to-wire success, and despite usually caught on the stretch, I’d suggest lengthening her races, as she likely simply can’t fire on the straight.

#4 KASH HAPPY(JPN) 7/2

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=166991

5 Races – 2 Wins – 57,466$

The Symboli Kris S filly has been installed as the 2^nd favourite, and can support this role with a nice 4.5f ALW win on good dirt 2 races back, she ran a 76 in that race. Last time out she ran in a 5.5f Stakes Race, finishing 2^nd with a nice 80 speed, and showed nice closing speed, so the extra half furlong will likely suit her well. With distance and ground not looking a problem, she really could run a blistering finish and I’d not make a trifecta without her.

#5 IDEA SQUIRT(JPN) 4/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=173843

2 Races – 1 Win – 28,240$

The Squirtle Squirt filly has made the jump to stakes level right after winning her maiden with a 76 over 5f. In her second race, she ran in a 5.5f stakes event on good dirt, she finished with a 73 over 5.5f, which resulted in a third place. She closed lately, and showed a nice stretch speed, so just like Kash Happy, the extra furlong should suit her well, but it looked like she really didn’t sit well with the good dirt, so she may have a problem with the ground.

#6 HEADBOB(CAN) 7/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=126736

2 Races – 2 Wins – 37,860$

The 3yo Bold Executive filly is a proven stakes winner, with only 2 races run, she is still unbeaten, and won her maiden over 4.5f with a 73, and followed up with a stakes win over 5.5f and a 77, both races she just nipped away in the final furlong, stalking the pace before. The biggest question mark will be her competitivness against the field and how she handles the good dirt, which she has not run on before. She is very difficult to judge, and could run anywhere from 1^st to 8^th.

#7 FALLINGINLOVEAGAIN(KY) 7/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=159408

6 Races – 2 Wins – 56,160$

The 3yo Fusaichi Pegasus filly has been the headline when auctioned for 2,800,001$ back in week 3749, new owner smocken has had no luck with her so far, she ran a disappointing 65 over 8f turf last time out. The filly got a quick start to her career, when winning her maiden followed by an ALW afterwards with a nice 74 on good dirt over 6f in May. This race could be a good indicator of what to expect today, however since then she struggled while switching distance and surface multiple times, perhaps going back to her first success distance and surface can be a good choice.

#8 CRAFTY CHATHAM C(IND) 10/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=47178

2 Races – 1 Win – 9,740$

After an easy maiden win, with a 68 over 5.5f, the Chatham Strait filly took a step up to stakes racing, with a 6f stakes race, however she finished 4^th with a 71, and looked overwhelmed by the competition. The same may happen today, unless she matured a lot over the last 4 weeks. Generally she seems to need an early lead, judged on her maiden wire-to-wire success, and struggles, when not getting it, with the likely faster Skeeter Land in the race, it will be another tough challenge for her today.

This race could go anywhere, as some of the not so experienced horses could land huge improvements and wins, I’d like to pick Kash Happy, but give Stormy Valley a good chance to go 2 out of 2.