Silver Fence Derby
Welcome to Northern California, usually not the place, where Derby hopes begin, but the place, where we get a first look at the 3yos in Graded action going over 8.5f, this race could have at least some Derby Wannabees in itself. The weather is warm and sunny, and the track has been declared fast, and 12 colts made their way to California, including a few Stakes winners, some even striking in Graded Company. Favourite Ripperbeast is the only one in the race, to break the magic 100 barrier, but in this classy field, a lot of horses will get their shot, but let’s take a look at the field:
#1 DESTINY’S GONE(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=164895
6 Races – 3 Wins – 376,116$
The 3yo Gone West colt ran his best race so far last October on a sloppy dirt course, when he won the Grade 1 Sparkling Wine Stakes over 8.5f, he showed a steady pace, wining wire-to-wire with a 93. He likes an early lead, and prefers to stay the distance unchallenged, that didn’t work last time out in the Grade 2 Club Stakes, when he was already caught at the half way mark, and finished a disappointing 7th. His breeding suggests a lot of Turf influence, but with a Grade 1 win on dirt, his ownership seems to stay to the ground, despite the flop last time. Should be a good contender, if he can get an easy lead, but expect On the Road to stalk his pace.
#2 RIPPERBEAST(KY) 9/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=261
5 Races – 3 Wins – 339,500$
The 3yo Point Given Colt broke the magic speed number of 100 in his last outing, finishing 2nd in the Grade 1 7f Twinhollow Trainer Championship, but if you think he is a sprinter testing the water, if he can sty, your wrong, he proofed, that he can easily get the 8.5f winning an restricted Stakes Race in Nevada with lots of closing speed in October. He was unleashed in his 3rd career race, when he switched from leading early, to a slow opening style, and a big stretch finish. Has tons of closing speed, and could possibly switch running styles, if necessary.
#3 SEATTLE EXPLOIT(KORE) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=158645
8 Races – 4 Wins – 152,070$
The 3yo Colt by Exploit, a colt, that only sired 8 2yos last season, has it kept going during his 2yo campaign, winning two stakes races, but if you look at his form, it shows a big win last time out, however over 7f, where he scored a stakes race with a 94. His only route try was back in November, when he finished 4th in the Club Stakes, finishing nice on the stretch, but not able to close to winning colt Sisson’s Sunday. He continually improved, as can be expected from a 2yo, and is likely to have another improvement today. It has to be seen, if his only route try was a fluke, and if he can bring his sprinting form over to the longer distances.
#4 GRIM POINT(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=169893
2 Races – 1 Win – 30,194$
The 3yo Point Given colt, only made his debut back in November, scoring in his 2nd race with a nice 89 in a Maiden race in December made it tempting for his connections to enter the 12 runner field. I’d never count anyone out in a 3yo race in january, if he only brings half decent form, but it’s asked a lot, for the inexperienced horse to step up into an experienced Graded Field, in just his 3rd race, I seen this working, but I seen much more flops, which took horses a long time to rebound, if facing to strong field early on. Let’s see how this works out, for the fast closer today.
#5 FOUR RUN PYE(KY) 21/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=168794
5 Races – 2 Wins – 56,960$
Despite just breaking his maiden back in November, the entry of the 3yo Bernstein colt makes a lot of sense, he became better and better, the longer the races got in distance, winning an ALW last time out over 8f, and the 86 speed may not represent the end of his potential, as he cruised to a wire-to-wire lead, however, it’s unlikely he can get the lead against quick pace setter Destiny’s Gone, who has lots more experience, than Four Run Pye. It will be interesting to see, where he can place himself in such a strong field.
#6 SEATTLE RUNNING(KY) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=173447
3 Races – 2 Wins – 80,080$
The 3yo Forest Wildcat colt has a great breeding, being from Game Dam Seattle’s West, a Gone West x Seattle Slew Grade 1 winner, with Seattle Running being his first stakes winner in 4 tries. He won an ungraded Stakes race, in only his 2nd race back in November, last time out in December he tested 7.5f, in 2nd, with an 87 speed, but closing well. It seems likely he can get the 8.5f, despite Forest Wildcats tendency to throw sprinters. Today he’ll have to improve and show, that he can run with the more experienced 3yos, who often had 6-7 run 2yo campaigns. But only making his debut in october, he still seems fresh, and despite the monthly schedule showed no signs of fatigue so far. He likes to sit a couple of lengths of the lead, and then make a closing move with a steady pace later on.
#7 ON THE ROAD(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=12668
8 Races – 3 Wins – 497,600$
The Son of Dynaformer opens his Derby targeted season, after a great win in the Arizona Diamond, which he won by an impressive 2 lengths, and scored his first Graded success, after 2 2nd place finished in Grade 3 competition. Being a Stakes winner already in July, he showed his preference for longer distances in the autumn, and comes in well rested. He’s the first son of Unbridled’s Song Dam Freedom of Speech, who never won a Stakes race. He looks very well settled, and likes to stalk a steady fast pace.
#8 MIDTOWN RIOT(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=84777
7 Races – 2 Wins – 121,834$
The 3yo Street Cry Colt from Pilgrim Stables, came to life late in his 2yo season, when taking part in the Blazing Saddles Breeder’s Showdown, the 8.5f restricted Stakes race made him push out a great performance, closing late he ran a great 97, just missing out on the win by a head. His fast closing style, pushing over the 2nd half of the race, made him an ALW winner earlier in the year, and so far, the more distance he got, the better he performed. Could be well on track based on his recent performance, and should be a contender for the winner’s circle, despite his lack of Graded experience.
#9 REGINALD DWIGHT(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=29358
6 Races – 2 Wins – 137,140$
The 3yo Jazil colt is one of only 2 stakes winners sired by the now 2nd year sire. He won a 6f Ungraded Stakes back in August, in October the Big Hill Stakes(Grade 2), run over 7f, showed his talent, when he finished only beaten by a head in 2nd place, striking with a 94. Despite his last time out looked like he couldn’t stay 8.5f, and his 8th place in the Movieland Futurity was a disaster, he is back over the same distance today. He likes to be just a couple lengths of a fast pace, and then it has to be seen, if he can gain an advantage, in the Movieland he just lost ground on the stretch, and I have high doubts about his capability to get routes.
#10 CORIOLIS EFFECT(FL) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=160490
8 Races – 2 Wins – 54,665$
The 3yo Red Bullet colt has had a lot of struggles as a 2yo, breaking his maiden early, in only his 2nd race, he struggled to confirm the 78 speed set in the July Maiden contest, it took till his 6th race in July to get back on track, winning an ALW with a nice 90 over 7.5f. Afterwards he finished 11th, never playing a role in the Grade 3 Upper State Juvenile Stakes, and his last race was a 3rd place in a 6f ALW. It seems as racing almost every 4 weeks since May has already put a toll on the youngesters back, and as he looks not a major player in the derby race, I suggest a well needed break for the colt.
#11 STEVIE RAY(KY) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=103072
7 Races – 1 Win – 86,845$
The 3yo Seeking the Gold Colt has not found the winners circle, after winning a 5f maiden on sloppy ground back in May, he ran some nice stakes races during his autumn campaign, but finished 2nd twice over 8 and 8.5f, last time out he stepped up to Graded competition for the second time, but after scoring a well respected 3rd place in the Little Tree Stakes, the Peasure Stakes meant no pleasure for Stevie Ray. He ran an ok 86 speed, but never got into the race, and got carried away by the fast speed on top, to finish back in 11th place. Needs to rebound big, and would like to be near the lead early.
#12 MO BETTER BLUES(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=88674
5 Races – 2 Wins – 68,200$
The 3yo Bernardini Colt already had a tough injury to overcome, coming up lame during a 2yo ALW in may, he had to be put on a 3 month rest, returning in August, with a nice ALW win, after that he began to struggle in Stakes Company. Trying a tough task in the Grade 2 End of the Line Futurity, he finished 4th, not being able to keep the late quick pace set. The same happened in an Ungraded Stakes Race last time out, he set well early, trying to stalk the pace, but finished in 3rd, not being able to quicken, when it counted. He seems to stay 8.5f easy, as the 92 speed suggested, but has problems of quickening on the stretch, which tends me to say he could even need more distance, that being said should put him in a good position for later success in the big 10f races, let’s see how he develops, and stands this 8.5f Graded Test.
I wouldn’t want to be a punter hinging his life on this race, it’s very tricky to forecast 3yo races at this time of year, surely Ripperbeast looked outstanding in his last two races, but On the Road comes in with a Big Grade 1 win, Midtwon Riot showed a nice routing quality in his last race, and the list could be put further with those, that just ran a couple races so far in their career, I won’t make a winners pick, just because I think almost everyone has a fair shot at the race.