The ELOQUENT LADY Handicap

As one year draws to a close and new year begins, trainers wait anxiously to see if their now older and more experienced horses will continue to improve. This reporter is taking a mini vacation across the Atlantic Ocean to Victoria for the A1, Grade III Eloquent Lady Handicap. This race is for the ladies, four years old and up. They will be battling it out for 10 furlongs over the turf. First under the wire will receive the largest share of the $150,000 purse.

RACE HISTORY: Fastest time-2:01 1/5 set in 2004 by PgPg’s Filly with a speed of 114. She was trained by pgpg with N Fagan aboard.

1
Dangerous Waters
A.P. Indy x Northern Dancer x Buckpasser
9/1

Trainer: billiam40 Stable: Willyam13 Stables Jockey: N Hartel

Dangerous waters is a four year old chestnut mare sired by A. P. Indy. Trainer billiam40 brings her to Victoria after a quick trip to Kentucky on November 22, 2008 where she competed in the nine furlong UNBRIDLED STATE Challenge. After running a high speed of 107 in October she was only able to produce the speed of 95 which placed her third, 9 1/2 lengths off the lead. She has only been able to run at 100 or above two other times in her career. In fact, after breaking her maiden she has only won three other races, one allowance and two non-graded stakes. She barely missed winning the Grade III Filly Turf Bonanza by a nose back in May 2008. Seemingly more consistent at being inconsistent, it is hard to tell exactly how she will perform in this race. If she is able to tap into the speeds she’s capable of then she has a good chance at being the first under the wire. Looking at her past performances she will probably be held around 4 to 6 lengths off the lead before making her final drive. With odds of 9/1, the handicappers feel that although she may pose a small threat she is not much of the danger to the rest of this field.

2
Vintage Smoke
Vindication x Smoke Glacken x Diesis (GB)
7/1

Trainer: acote2 Stable: Pilgrim Stables Jockey: D Evans

Vintage Smoke is a four year old light gray mare by Vindication. She has been shipped to Victoria from Florida where she competed in the 10 furlong grade one Kenny Busch Memorial Stakes. With the speed of 105 she pushed hard during the stretch but was unable to overtake the leader and placed second just 3/4 length behind. In October, she captured her first graded stakes win with a career high speed of 111 at a distance of 9.5 furlongs. After breaking her maiden in December 2007, she has had three allowance wins before her graded win. Vintage is a fine looking mare with a bright future in 2009, but I have to wonder if the 10 furlong distance of this race will be her downfall. Other than the Kenny Busch Memorial Stakes, she has only raced one other time at this distance and placed out of the money in 6th, 11 3/4 lengths off the lead. Handicapper’s have given her odds of 7/1 here in the Eloquent Lady as they seem to be as unsure as I am.

3
We Miss Al
Giant’s Causeway (IRE) x El Prado (IRE) x Sadler’s Wells
6/1

Trainer: Deadwood6 Stable: Nighthawk Stables Jockey: A Snappa

We Miss Al is a 6yo light gray mare by Giant’s Causeway. She’s coming to Victoria from Queensland after a very disappointing loss in the non-graded stakes race, The Lookalike Orient Challenge where she came in 11th, 15 1/4 lengths back from the lead. She is a consistent producer of speeds of 100 or more and has had wins at greater as well as less distances. These factors combined make her a possible threat in this race but when looking at her past performances, you notice that she has had 3 Allowance and 3 non-graded stakes wins after breaking her maiden. She has never raced in a graded stakes so this grade III will be her first attempt at a graded win. She does have an impressive career but I don’t think that she’ll be much of a threat in this race against more experienced graded mares. The handicapper’s think a little, but not much different, than myself by giving her odds of 6/1 for this race.

4
Kuchiki
High Chaparral x Awesome Again x Cozzene
10/1

Trainer: Orosto Stable: Ace Stables – Scandinavia Division Jockey: J Kohlmorgen

Kuchiki is a 4yo brown mare by High Chaparral and out of Renzokuken. She last raced in Michigan in a 10 furlong allowance where she placed second, 1 length off the lead which kind of makes me question her trainer’s decision to jump her up to this graded stakes race. She only has 3 other wins in her career, her maiden and 2 non-graded and one allowance. She achieved her highest speed of 103 in a 10 furlong grade II in September and placed 2nd for her efforts. She has plenty of experience at the distance but compared to the rest of the field, I don’t see her posing much of a threat. The handicappers think she doesn’t have much of a shot, either, with giving her odds of 10/1.

5
Charitable
Generous (IRE) x Theatrical (IRE) x Manila
30/1

Trainer: 375Stud Stable: 375Stud Stables Jockey: J Cox

From the track in Epsom comes Charitable, a 4yo mare by Generous and out of Sweety Sunshyne (IRE). Out of 11 career starts she only has 2 wins, her maiden (an 11 furlong) and an 11 furlong non-graded stakes win by 2 3/4 lengths but at a relatively slow speed of 100. It is the only time she has broke into the triple digits in her speed. I think she has a couple of things going against her in this race with her speed being the main one, especially in this race where you have horses capable of much faster speeds. Another problem could be that she seems to be an 11 furlong horse, seeming to need that extra distance to get herself in gear. The handicappers agree that she doesn’t have much of a chance and have named her the longshot with odds of 30/1. One thing I wonder, though, is it seems that the longer odds she has, the better she performs so maybe this will work in her favor.

6
Siliane
Manndar (IRE) x Stravinsky x Jade Hunter
4/1

Trainer: Planoaxius Stable: Planoaxia Stables Jockey: S Nightingale

Siliane is a 5yo light gray mare by Manndar and out of The Violin Girl. She comes to Victoria from British Columbia where she competed in the 10 furlong, non-graded stakes, The Puddy the Stupid Bonanza where she led the entire race and was first under the wire by 1 length. She has consistently produced speeds over 100 since October 2007 with the exception of one 99 in the 12 furlong grade I Brisbane Distaff in August of 2008. She has wins at distances from 10-11 furlongs and has only placed out of the money twice in her 23 race career. She brought home the win in 9 of those races. She is definitely a threat here this week and the handicappers agree, naming her one of the two favorites in this race with odds of 4/1.

7
Otto Platinum
Mineshaft x Saint Ballado x Unbridled
5/1

Trainer: Verona Stable: Pierchinski Stables Jockey: Z Skunk

Verona brings the 7 yo light gray mare, Otto Platinum by Mineshaft to Victoria this week. This mare started her career on the dirt and after some very impressive 2 mile wins on the dirt she was switched to the turf where she really began to shine. She captured 2 allowance, 4 non-graded and a grade II win on the grass with most of these wins between January 2007 and January 2008. She can easily produce a high speed of 106 but has yet to win a race since January of this year. She seems to prefer even longer distances with most of her wins between 14 and 16 furlongs and really seems to struggle in the shorter distances. However, as she ages it is possible that maybe the shorter distance will suit her better. Other trainers should keep an eye on her in this race as she has a good chance at being under the wire first. Handicappers say that is possible with odds of 5/1.

8
Ice Cap Gal
Medaglia D’Oro x Awesome Again x Secretariat
15/1

Trainer: Samsonfarm Stable: Vkstables Stables Jockey: L Ward
Medaglia D’Oro sired Ice Cap Gal, the 4yo roan out of Again the Amy. She has had a very short 10 race career and could possibly struggle against the competition in this race. However, after producing a 102 in the non-graded stakes, The DOUBLE OLLIE Challenge where she placed second by 3 lengths, trainer samsonfarm is confident that she has a good shot. Since this was her only time of producing a speed over 100, and since she has one win to her name (her maiden win), I’m not so sure if she’s not outclassed here. The distance is definitely not a problem for her but if speed and pressure is poured on from the more experienced horses in this field, she may be found lacking. Then again, I’ve been proven wrong many times in the past. Handicappers think she’s not much of a threat with odds of 15/1.

9
No Promised Land
Fusaichi Pegasus x Sadler’s Wells x Buckpasser
5/1

Trainer: Kaif099 Stable: Kaif Stables Jockey: M R Magoo

No Promised Land is a 6yo brown mare by Fusaichi Pegasus. She comes to victory after a 1/4 furlong victory in the non-graded stakes The WAVERING SCREEN Challenge in Florida on 11/15/08. Although pretty regularly producing speeds over 100 this was her second win since October 2007 but she seems to be improving each time out on the track, becoming closer to the high speed of 109 that she managed in July 2007. Even though all but one of her 8 career wins have been at 8.5 furlongs or under, Kaif feels that her latest victory at 9.5 furlongs is enough to prove that she can handle the 10 furlongs of this race. After reviewing The WAVERING SCREEN, I have to agree especially with the improving speeds. I have to go against the handicappers, who place her behind the two favorites with odds of 5/1, and say that No Promised Land is the one to watch in this race.

10
Lenshaft
Pine Bluff x Storm Cat x Alydar
4/1

Trainer: Chops27 Stable: The Evil Empire Jockey: R Bailey

Lenshaft, the 5yo mare by Pine Bluff and out of Ode to Lenny, is the second favorite in this race and looking over her past performances it’s easy to see why. Despite a grade II win early on in her career, she was raced mainly as an allowance horse and thrived. In all of her career allowance runs, she has only placed out of the money once but when she was tried in graded and non-graded stakes she just failed to keep up. Until she began to show repeated speeds over 100 starting in August 2008. She has won 4 out of her last 5 starts, 2 allowance and 2 non-graded stakes and placing second in the grade I, 9.5 furlong Flower Pot Stakes, with speeds of 104, 105 and 106 respectively. Distance is not a problem either with 2 of these 5 races being 10 furlongs and including the Flower Pot, the other three were 9.5 furlong. She has the ability to be first under the wire but I have to wonder if she can hold it together for one more race to capture this grade III. Handicappers think she can with odds of 4/1.

So, there you have it. A nice field of 10 mares for this race. As much as I am impressed with Lenshaft’s record, I still think that this week is for No Promised Land with Lenshaft biting at her heels. I think it’s even going to be a fight for third with probably Ice Cap Gal up there finishing in third. So, my prediction for the Eloquent Lady is: No Promised Land x Lenshaft x Ice Cap Girl.

Good luck and happy racing.