Triage Distaff
Welcome to cold Norway on a nice after christmas race day, today the Marathon fillies and mare get a chance to show their class. As often in those Graded Marathon, or near Marathons like this 14f test, lots of the horses only have few Graded experience, as the Graded races are few at this distance. But we have the 2nd place horse from last year Well What and a few Stakes winners in todays field. Before we start freezing let’s take a look at the runners:
#1 KERIS DAGGER BED(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=143389
21 Races – 6 Wins – 211,960$
The 4yo Empire Maker filly is a Marathon specialist, and has 3 stakes wins on her record this season, however recently she looked like after 13 races already this season she has hit the wall.
After a disappointing 13th in the Equinics, the biggest Race for Marathon Fillies this year, she rebounded to win a stakes race over 16f, however since then she is struggling, her last outing she showed a 87 still good for a 3rd in a stakes race, but she finished off the board in the 2 races before with a 79 and a 89, way off the 102 she ran back in September. She could likely take a break, but perhaps she can run out of her mini crisis today. She likes to be on or in the lead early.
#2 THE BIG HIT(KY) 7/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=1806
30 Races – 5 Wins – 237,529$
The 4yo Storm Cat filly looks just like the most untypical Storm Cat ever, searching for his best distance all career long, the Storm Cat Diesis cross seems to have found it in Turf Marathons. Last time out, running 14f for the first time, she ran a great 98, winning by 3 ¼ lengths running away in a Stakes race. The performance impressed the bookies to rate her at 7/2 today. It was her first win on turf, after flip flopping in surface and distances from 8 to 16f for a long time. Let’s see, if she can confirm the performance, or the struggle for a niche to win at will continue. The 4yo likes to be near the lead all race, and then move away late.
#3 WELL WHAT(FR) 3/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=75982
27 Races – 6 Wins – 225,776$
After running in only 7 races this season, winning only 1 ALW race, the 5yo Dream Well Mare returns to Norway, where she finished 2nd in this event last year, and this was by far her best career result, which saw her win 2 Ungraded Stakes races before. This season has been a struggle for her, running distances from 12-16f on the turf, but really lacking consistency and class, the best speed figure was a 106 over 13f, but that was only good for a 3rd place stakes finish that day. Last time out she was 2nd in a 16f Stakes race, just being caught on the stretch by 2 lengths. Taking the lead early is her favourite running style, and has led to her best results.
#4 HIGH N DEEP(JPN) 3/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=13111
7 Races – 5 Wins – 155,900$
The 3yo deep Impact filly just started her racing career this May, and since then she has progressed and matured very well, after winning the first four in a row, she went up to a Grade 1 Race in New Zealand, but found the competition to heavy, and finished 4th in the 12f event, after that she rebounded nicely, with a 3rd in an ALW, and last time out with a cracker performance, a 111 over 12f in an open ALW, which is by far the nicest tune up for this 14f event, a distance which she has proven to stay in her 4th career race with a nice 94 in an immpressive win. She is installed the joint favourite, and looking at her flexible running style she should fit well in that race today.
#5 BLAME GREG(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=148639
22 Races – 4 Wins – 135,457$
Last time out the 4yo Empire Maker filly finally won her first stakes race, after 5 unsuccesful attempts, and coming in with the confidence from a 16f stakes win should give a boost to speed. However the 95 looks a little slow compared to the competition today, so it’s likely the long time ALW runner will have to improve. Being a late developer, the filly ran her best speed so far back in October, when finishing 3rd in a 12f event with a 102. After that 2 off-track performances kind of hindered her maturing, but now she seems to get comfortable. She likes to run from the back end of the field, and that may sometimes lead into missing the right time for the finish, but with lots of early speed, she may take on some late tiring front runners.
#6 BRUNNHILDE(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=54846
13 Races – 4 Wins – 132,020$
Well, the 3yo Theatrical filly is coming in with 2 wins in a row and has dominated the ALW class recently, with 3 wins and 3 seconds in her last 6 races, all over distances between 11 and 14f. But she looks a tap slower than the competition she faces today, with her best performance a 92 over 12f back in July. Let’s see how she handles the Graded competition, but she surely needs to crack the 100 today to go for 3 in a row today.
#7 ROASTING CHESTNUT(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=87168
12 Races – 5 Wins – 102,282$
Another 3yo entry, but this Aldeberan filly brings a very strange breeding, with no real star influence, but is a proof, that with the right combination, even a cheap breeding can lead to success. So far she was running mainly in ALW races, last time out saw her stakes debut, and she finished 2nd in a 13f event, with a nice 97, her lifetime best speed. Well, that should show you, that she is still maturing, and gets better with longer distances. She is usually stalking the pace, and looks very confident going into the Graded test, and another improvement on her career best may see her lined up for a top 3 finish.
#8 KANTIA(JPN) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=157728
11 Races – 6 Wins – 96,430$
Last but not least, we see the nice 3yo Alkaseed filly make her 2nd appearance in Stakes racing, last time out she won a 14f stakes race in South Carolina, so she is shipping in a long way. She is on a 5 race win streak, and kind of reinvented herself, since she first ran a distance of 12f, after winning her MSW at 8f, her last 3 races all have been 14f, with a 99 being the best speed, but she may still have lots of improvement ability, as all have been wins. Today she makes a huge step up to Graded competition, but, as she’s another won trailing early, and usually flying home, I like her chances.
Lots of runners just came up to the Marathon division, and lots of horses bring nice prep races, I really like Kantia, High N Deep and the Big Hit to finish in the Top 3, but I wouldn’t like to pick a winner today, as lots of the fillies still have room for improvement, I guess cracking a 100 speed will be vital for a win today.