Full Field a Competitive One For The Northern Derby

(Ontario) — With a lukewarm morningline favorite listed at 5/1, and 5 other horses within 8/1, the Grade III Northern Derby, a 9 furlong tussle for three year old horses on the dirt, is shaping up to be a bettor’s delight. Bargains could be everywhere. The horses in Post Position order:

At the rail is 8/1 shot Crafty Victory, the 6th ranked 3 yr old colt in the Classic Division. This ssj4vegeta trained son of Victory Gallop has a lot going for him. First, he’s got a solid record, showing 11 ITM in 17 lifetime races (5-3-3). He’s also in solid form, winning his last time out in solid fashion, and the time before that was a closing 3rd, both in full field Grade II races, and both at this exact distance. If there’s a caveat here though, the pace may be an issue here. Crafty is at his best when closing some ground in the stretch, and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of early speed in this race. With his best race and an honest pace, this guy can offer real value in this field.

In the 2nd gate is Bright Sal, a 24/1 longshot from the keryn stable that’s dropping back to a Grade III after 5 fruitless outings in consecutive Grade Is. Doesn’t look like this one has the speed figures to compete with some of these, and will need the race of his life to be competitive here.

In the 3^rd post position is one of the lower priced entries, Rock Cutter(IRE) with a showy 5-2-1 record in his 9 lifetime starts. The liblelady charge has impeccable breeding (Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy) and 5 of his last 6 races have been run in triple digits. The question is how he’ll react to his last race, a Grade I where he simply didn’t fire, finishing 10^th. A slight drop back in class and moving back to 9 furlongs may indeed do the trick. Another one to watch here.

Fourth from the rail is calle4’s Beneath The Stars(IRE), another 24/1 shot that looks like he’s going to be a bit outclassed with these. It’ll take the race of his young life to finish in the front half of this race, but stranger things have happened.

Remember Stormy is bertamiran’s entry, starting from the 5^th position. Without a lifetime triple digit speed figure (high of 98), a win this year, or even a jockey with a better than 4% win record, it’ll take a ‘Volponi’-like upset to cash a check here.

Right next to the longest shot on the board is the favorite, 5/1 shot Squal Me Halo, a binzaman trainee. This millionaire is the 3^rd ranked 3 yr old Classic Dirt horse, and, throwing out his last race, a clunker in the slop at the Travelers’, looks every bit the favorite here. Not only has he got back-to-back 110 SFs in his 2^nd and 3^rd races back, he also has the tactical speed to either set the pace and wire this field if he gets away, or to set just off that pace. While there are others in this race that definitely can win, 5/1 seems a pretty good value for this favorite.

Cheap Wine will be sitting right outside of Squal Me Halo, and this coldchisel trainee may well decide the pace up front. One of the few here who likes to be on or near the lead when he races best, his speed figs haven’t so far demonstrated the ability to hold that speed for 9 against this calibre of horse. But he’s got a top jock, and stranger things have happened. If he has a chance, he’ll probably have to steal it wire to wire.

A stalker/closer type coming out of the 8^th gate is Arno Hollandia, from the tote stable. This guy has some speed figure issues as well, having a lifetime high of 101. He’ll need more than that to win in this company.

Starting in the 9^th gate is claim’s veteran campaigner Bob’s Orchestra. The most-raced horse in the field (this will be his 20^th lifetime start), he’s a stone closer who can be right there with these if he runs his best race. Trouble is, he’ll need a killer pace, a clear trip, and there are questions about his class. He’s done his best racing in ungraded stakes company. He’s had more than his share of issues in Graded company.

In the 10^th post position, network7 brings in an intriguing choice in 7/1 shot Six Pulpit’s. Another one who disappointed in the Travelers’ slop last time out, he’s back at a distance he loves and on a fast track. A couple of nice Grade II wins his 2^nd and 3^rd back may set this one up for an upset. Regardless, this guy will be flying down the stretch. Don’t forget him on both sides of the exotics.

Scotian Kid, another 6/1 shot, this one from the dougiec5 barns, will start in the 11^th slot. This one’s a hard worker, almost a shoe-in for a triple figure race (6 of his last 8), might be a bit better suited for a bit longer than 9. He’ll be coming at the end too, but may have trouble with either Squal Me Halo’s pace, or Six Pulpit’s charge. He’ll be involved, but may not have enough to win here.

In the 12^th gate is burn1down’s Real Player(IRE), a stalker/closer type who’s had some real problems with this level of horseflesh. Without a huge jump in speed numbers, especially from what he’s done in Graded races, it doesn’t seem likely this one will cash a check.

Red Robber, quirt22’s entry in the 13^th post, sports a very flashy 12 of 14 ITM (7-3-2 in 14 starts), but has mostly had his way with allowance horses. His speed figures suggest he might not be able to run down some of the horses here. Another one who could be passing a few tired horses at the end.

Holding down the outside post is chas’ Horn Knee Sal II. Like his legendary mother(father?), the altered Horn Knee Sal, junior is a Graded winner. He even has similar numbers to the legend’s three year old figures. But, as consistent as he is, junior will probably have to run his best race to date to carve out a win here. But the best news is, if he continues to develop like the original Horn Knee Sal, junior has a huge future as a 4 year old coming.