“Good” track could affect results
DPCD 7 – Delaware Distaff, 3805.2207, Dec. 20, 2008
G1, 9f, good dirt, fillies 3+
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“Good” track could affect results
Breeder’s Bowl and Equinics participants meet again
The fourteen fillies and mares in Satudays Delaware Distaff at 9
furlongs have run in a total of 27 races on off tracks, with Desecration
Smile (5 0-0-5, $45K, including a 109 speed figure) and Mind Eraser (5
1-2-1 for $51K) doing so most often. Gold for the Grave (1, won, $18K),
Derby Cat (2, won, placed, $19K), Kotton Kandy (1, second, $17K),
Sabbath Point (2, won both, $180K), Pravda (2, 1-0-1, $71K), Lovestruck
(1, won, $16K), Mach Red (3, 1-0-0, $27K), and Black Flag Flying (1,
won, $30K) have all hit the board while Wall of Salt, Luzerne, Sweet
Sister Mercy ($20K), and Black Gold Coal have raced once each on off
tracks, all unplaced, with only Sweet Sister Mercy earning anything on
off tracks.
On another note, several of today’s entrants ran in the Breeder’s Bowl
Distaff which, like today’s race, was 9 furlongs on the dirt. Black Flag
Flying won, with Gold for the Grave second, Wall of Salt third, Luzerne
eighth, Sweet Sister Mercy ninth, Sabbath Point tenth, and Mach Red
thirteenth.
Equinics day saw eight of these horses running in one of three races. In
the Medical Corps at 8 furlongs, Gold for the Grave won, followed by
Sabbath Point in second and Black Flag Flying tenth. Mind Eraser was
third in the Child Focus at 10 furlongs with Luzerne eighth. The UNICEF,
also at 8 furlongs, was won by Mach Red with Desecration Smile second
and Sweet Sister Mercy sixth.
The Morning Line has Sweet Sister Mercy at 6-1, Black Gold Coal at 7-1,
Gold for the Grave and Pravda at 8-1, Derby Cat at 9-1, and the rest at
odds ranging up to 21-1.
In terms of speed points, theses fillies and mares are hard to separate.
The best figure is 112 with several at 111, and the “worst” at 108.
1) Gold for the Grave 3f 17 9-5-0 $1,728,925
Her first ten races were on turf with a respectable record and earnings,
but she blossomed on dirt, earning about 90% of her total there and only
once worse than second. She was second in her only 9 furlong race, the
G1 Breeders Bowl Distaff two races ago, but has won at 8 and 8.5. She’s
usually a closer.
She’s one of the favorites and has won, modestly, in her only off track
race.
2) Wall of Salt 3f 15 4-5-1 $1,017,075
She has won a G1 at 9 furlongs and has had only one race since her third
in the Breeder’s Bowl Distaff. She’s usually back at the beginning of
the race and may gain or languish.
3) Luzerne 3f 16 5-3-1 $738,750
Luzerne has won three recent races at 9 furlongs but was eighth in her
last, the G1 Breeder’s Bowl Distaff. She usually races mid-pack and may
gain.
4) Derby Cat 4f 24 5-6-5 $392,929
Derby Cat ran in several stakes races early last year, then went back to
allowances before returning to stakes recently. Her last four have been
graded stakes and she has three placements. Her last six races have been
at 9 furlongs; she’s won two allowances, with two seconds and a third in
stakes. She has the lowest earning per start in this race.
She didn’t run in either the Breeder’s Bowl or Equinics but seemed like
a possible surpise horse even before looking at her off track record, a
win and a second in two tries though her earnings were modest.
5) Kotton Kandy 3f 12 4-4-0 $501,590
She’s G1 placed twice at 10 furlongs, and wired an ungraded stakes at 9
furlongs. She usually shows little change in position through a race but
if she hits the front early, she could stay there.
6) Sabbath Point 3f 17 9-6-3-1 $1,638,500
Sabbath Point has won a G1 at 9 furlongs but her last two races,
including a solid defeat in her last race, the Breeder’s Bowl Distaff,
have been below her usual standard. However, the off track may help her
because she’s won both her off track races for about $180,000 in
earnings, well above any of today’s competitors.
She’s usually near the leaders.
7) Desecration Smile 4f 24 6-3-5 $524,906
She has won an allowance at this distance but that was very early in her
career and she seems to prefer shorter. Her last two races have, like
Sabbath Point’s, been less than her usual races. She usually comes from
well back.
8) Sweet Sister Mercy 5m 35 10-6-5 $2,549,000
Sweet Sister Mercy has won a G1 at today’s distance but that was last
year. Her last win was about six months ago, a G2 at 8.5 furlongs. She’s
another who races well back in the early stages. She’s had one race
since her decisive defeat in the Breeder’s Bowl Distaff. She’s the
favorite in today’s race.
9) Pravda 4f 26 9-2-4 $1,214,510
She recently won at 9 furlongs, an ungraded restricted stakes. Her last
race was not as good as the three before that. She’s one of the five
favorites and has significant earnings. She’s usually runs behind the
leaders to mid-pack.
10) Black Gold Coal 6m 26 9-2-4 $581,570
She usually runs sprints to a mile and most often mid-pack. She’s also
the oldest entrant.
11) Lovestruck 3f 18 11-4-1 $657,570
She’s been mixing allowances and stakes. Her last race was a win at her
best speed figure, an 8 furlong ungraded stakes. The race before that
was a 9 furlong allowance and she won that as well. Indeed, she’s coming
into this race off three straight wins, two of them allowances. Her
placement during races is quite variable.
12) Mind Eraser 3f 20 4-6-3 $682,748
She’s had several good races around 9 furlongs, including a third in her
10 furlong Equinics race. Her last was a G2 at 9 furlongs which she won
at her best speed figure. She usually runs mid-pack.
13) Mach Red 5m 34 9-3-5 $870,090
Mach Red was well beaten in her last race, a 9 furlong G1, though she
won her 8 furlong Equinics race. She’s only run in stakes for her last
12 races and usually runs just below this distance. Her last race was
the Breeder’s Bowl Distaff where she finsihed well behind Black Flag
Flying. She’s the only consistent front runner.
14) Black Flag Flying 3f 15 7-5-1 $2,318,280
Her Breeder’s Bowl win at today’s distance, in her best speed figure,
was her last race. She doubled her earnings (plus a little) with that
win which also gave her the highest earnings per start of these horses.
Can she repeat? Does she deserve to be 10-1? She’s usually a closer.
Sweet Sister Mercy has the most starts and the most earnings. Derby Cat
has the least earnings and the least earnings per start. Kotton Kandy
has the least starts. Black Flag Flying has the highest earnings per
start thanks to her Breeder’s Bowl win and is only about $200,000 behind
Sweet Sister Mercy in earnings, but with less than half as many starts.
Who seem to be the best possibilities?
Black Flag Flying because of her Breeder’s Bowl win, defeating six of
these fillies and mares.
Gold for the Grave who was second in the Breeder’s Bowl to Black Flag
Flying and did win her only off-track start.
Sabbath Point, largely because of her two wins on off tracks. Otherwise
she’d rank lower, probably even off this short list.
Derby Cat, though she’s never raced at these rarified levels before,
shouldn’t be hurt by an off track and seems like a possible surprise at
lower odds than one might expect.
Mind Eraser is much like Derby Cat. An Equinics third at 10 furlongs and
a good record, though at modest earnings, on off tracks.
Any prudent handicapper will carefully avoid all of them.