G1 Kingabs Sprint Preview

#1 Bullets at Sunrise (DelPenn National) 5/1 : Co-favourite in the race and #2 in my Field in Numbers ranking. He is a winner of 6 of 9 races lifetime and is coming in off 4 straight victories, including 3 graded. Did battle with the best in the division (#5 Urban Recon) last out and was able to get him by a length in the G1 Blackout Stakes. The re-match is set for today and looks to get the jump on the leaders early as they turn for home. Can’t wait for the battle, and can cement himself as the best in the division with a win here.

#2 Misconstrue (No Residency) 9/1 : This will be the 6th graded race in a row for him, so has been facing much of the best during the early part of his career. Coming off a great 3 year old debut with the second place finish in the G2 Swale Stakes, which included a triple digit speed figure. He hasn’t always been consistent, so the worry is that he may bounce a bit off of that performance. Will probably want to be as close to the lead as possible turning for him as he struggles to make up ground late. 

#3 Sabi Nation (East-West Connection) 13/1 : His first journey into graded stakes company on dirt didn’t end up going as planned with the 11th place finish in the G1 Blackout Stakes. The first two finishers are back here, so he has a ton of improving to do to compete with the top tier in this field. He has made the podium in a graded event with the 3rd in the G3 M.L. Trophy on the turf, but he does seem to do his best running at a level just below this. Is he ready to take that next step now?

#4 Cafe Runner (Empire State Racing) 12/1 : Filly taking on the boys, after her second place finish in the G3 Saint Paula. She has always made the podium, but this is another jump up from who she has been facing. The allowance races show she likes to be on the lead, so will see if she has the speed to get a jump on her competitors out of the gate. If not, she might be in trouble as she hasn’t been able to pass horses late in the stretch. Is she quick enough early?

#5 Urban Recon (GR Simsters) 5/1 : Co-favourite in the race and #1 in my Field in Number ranking. He is a winner of 6 of 9 races lifetime and if you get rid of that route try, he has made the top two in all 8 of his sprints. Amassed over $1 million, which includes the G1 Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Sprint. Started his 3 year old season with a second place finish in the G1 Blackout Stakes (Won by #1 Bullets at Sunrise), so nice to see him get a re-match here. Can he turn the tables?

#6 Hellsing Arms (GR Simsters) 11/1 : He was busy as a juvenile as he raced 8 times all in sprints. Did win the Pilgrims Charter Dirt Juvenile in November, but most of his success was done against allowance company before that. One that has done his best work from the front, as he has had trouble passing horses down the stretch. Takes a big jump into G1 company today, and would like to have seen him more consistent before this. Did that busy campaign help or hurt him?

#7 Gotwhatulookingfor (Orphan Racing) 13/1 : Very inconsistent and still trying to find what suits this one best. If there is a silver lining, it is that his best race to date has been sprinting on the dirt. He has only tried it once, but it resulted in his highest speed figure and a 4 ¼ length victory. Will get back to that today, one furlong shorter, but it is a huge jump from that allowance company win. Not sure he fits in with these, but don’t blame the trainer for taking a shot.

#8 Lucky Unbridled (Northwest Racing Circuit) 16/1 : Has been in two listed stakes in his life and both are his worst finishes of his career. All five of his allowance races have placed him on the podium, but it is a bit ambitious to think he will fit against this graded group. Has yet to hit the 90 speed figure mark, so will need a 10+ jump to get him into triple digits today. I think he is a cut below these at this point in his career. Would be a surprise if he contended.

#9 Free Assembly (The Mecca) 9/1 : 3 for 3 at this distance included the win in the G3 Faber College Juvenile back in June of last year. He did end up trying the turf, where he did take home a victory and a third in listed stakes. Got back to the dirt last out and it looked like he was happy to get back onto that surface. He led the whole way and took down the Big Hammer Dirt Dash by 2 ½ lengths. His best results have him on the front end, but others in here will want it too. Can he get out the fastest?

#10 Cost Too Much (The Mecca) 11/1 : Only one in here who has run for a tag, which turned out to be a dominating victory against a field of $150,000 NW3Y. Rarely do you see a jump right into graded company from that, but this one managed the challenge with a win in the G3 Pie GuysTipping Stakes. He is on a heat check as he jumps another level to this G1 sprint. Will need to improve his speed figure to fit against the best here, but I wouldn’t rule him out based on those last two races. Can he keep rolling?

#11 Quick Calculation (The Mecca) 10/1 : First seven starts of his career were on the turf, which he won the first 3 he ever raced. This included a win in the G3 Mother Lois in his third ever career start. Unfortunately, he couldn’t get back to the winner’s circle on the grass, but did manage a 3rd in the G1 Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf Sprint. Switched to the dirt last out, which is where he posted the highest speed figure of his career. He has been racing against the best turf sprinters in the game, how will he fare against them on dirt?

#12 Ashville Road (The Mecca) 20/1 : Longest shot on the board. Has not fared well in his two career graded starts where he has finished well back in the field. Did come third two back in the Mine Pumps Dirt Sprint, so maybe the potential is there to improve. Would need to have his speed figure jump up by double digits to make him competitive here. Understand the odds and think he is a bit out of his league against this group.

#13 Super Shy (MIDAS) 5/1 : Co-favourite in the field, though I feel he might be just a cut below the other two in here. His last three have all been podium finishes, so it has been a bit since he won those back-to-back listed stakes. Nothing to knock him for other than he might be getting comfortable not being the best. Would like him to run back to that third in the G2 Swale Stakes, where he came flying late. Start that kick a bit earlier and I can see him being a late contender. Can he get back to the winner’s circle? 

Field In Numbers

Horse	Speed – L3	Speed – 6F	CPU Value	D/S Rank	Total Points
Urban Recon	100.2	101.7	789	1	52
Bullets at Sunrise	97.8	101	788	2	48
Super Shy	97.8	96.6	770	32	43
Misconstrue	93.5	86.9	685	10	38
Free Assembly	92.8	89.9 (T)	660	56	36
Cost Too Much	91.2	96.8	623	116	31
Quick Calculation	92.6	80 (T)	656	149	28
Hellsing Arms	92.5	87.7	617	245	26
Cafe Runner	92.3	N/A	608	168	20
Sabi Nation	90.5	86.3 (T)	573	312	18
Gotwhatulookingfor	88.6	78.4 (T)	565	1923	11
Lucky Unbridled	87.5	N/A	524	858	9
Ashville Road	87.7	N/A	518	1029	8