Otto Tribute Heads Tight Solstice Market
The time honored Delpenn Day is spreading its wings to
The openness of the event is underlined by a look at the early market, and the rankings of the horses attracted to this feature. Otto Tribute is the shortest price on offer at 6/1, while twelve of her thirteen opponents are listed at odds between 7/1 and 16/1. The top three ranked fillies of the division are lining up, as are two more ranked within the top ten. We look towards hard fought, competitive events in these major races, and there is no doubt that there will be plenty of hard luck stories in the aftermath of this one.
We’ve no race history to look back on in search of clues, but a quick perusal of the formguide gives us an idea of what we may expect. A scant triple digit speed figure is hardly likely to be sufficient to earn the trophy. A sub 1.35 is almost a certainty, and with a proven speedster sure to set an honest pace from the outset, it’s highly likely that 1.34 could be tested by one or more of these fillies, several of whom are still on the progressive phases of their careers.
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s event:
Drawn in the coveted inside stall we find El Gato Agudo. This filly is making a huge jump here, having never contested a graded race previously, and having raced just twice in ungraded stakes events. That’s where the worries cease, however, as she made the transition to black type with ease. Four starts back she was a talented allowance filly working her way through the conditions. Then in September she started registering times good enough to encourage connections to reassess her potential. She’s won two of her last three, all contested over the mile, and broken 1.35 in each of the wins. That takes care of the speed factor. She may need to shave off another length or two to be a winning chance, but we know that she’s running the times which will put her into the mix. It’s now just the class question which she needs to answer. El Gato Agudo is a daughter of Sharp Humor from El Gato Fatso (Storm Cat / Nijinsky II). The dam was something of an underperformer on the track, but she’s turned it around in the breeding shed. Two of her first three progeny were stakes placed. This one, number four, is the first black type winner and her two year old half sister is a winner from just three starts. Theoqbarn could find this filly doing much of the chasing, as she’s one of few likely to settle handy, and will have no difficulty in taking up a nice spot from the inside gate. If she’s got the class, she could run a great race.
Briseida, is lining up in barrier 2. Like several of her opponents here, she’s recently endured a bit of a dry spell, and connections have chosen to prep for this race with an allowance run. Unlike some of those opponents, she actually won that final tune-up. Current form being the best form, that’s a positive. But there are plenty of questions. While most of the field consists of dedicated milers, this filly mixes distances with gay abandon. (And with quite degree of success, it must be added, as she’s won five of eight sprints, won a graded race at a mile and a sixteenth and is Grade 1 placed at nine furlongs). Of some concern are her speed ratings. With just two triple digit numbers on the formpage, the higher being 102, she’s going to need a substantial personal best if the more fancied opponents put their best feet forward (excuse the pun). And therein lies more hope. Virtually every runner suffers from a bit of inconsistent form, giving connections of all entries room for confidence. Briseida is a daughter of Pulpit, based on Glamour (Sadler’s Wells / Busted), winner of five from forty one and $173k. Rioja has already had better results with this one. With El Gato Agudo drawn inside and likely to be more prominent, she’ll slide back and enjoy the rail early. Sadly, in a week where so many good jockeys are in town, she’s not carrying one of the best. The bookies have her at the second longest price in the field, and while a win would be something of an upset, she’s most capable of running a handy race.
Gate 3 is the starting position for Retribution Angel. She’s switching back to the grass after five runs on the dirt, four of which saw her register triple digit speed ratings. There’s really nothing wrong with her form, it just doesn’t seem to be quite up to the level it will need to be to take home the trophy for this. Class wise, she looks just that little bit shy of the top level. Her career highlight has been a third placing in a Grade 2, and while that is generally a nice form line, it was in a field of only six. True, the filly who won, Briseida, also lines up here, but there’s that nagging feeling that overall it wasn’t a terribly strong race. She’s ventured into Grade 1 racing twice before, both times on the dirt, and both times she was well held. One ray of hope lies in her form over this trip, which is arguably her best distance. Four runs over a mile on the grass have netted three wins and a third. Countering that slightly is the fact that none of those races came against graded opposition. Retribution Angel is a daughter of Seeking the Gold, based on Once Wylde (Touch Gold / Peintre Celebre), a winner of five black type races. Zewango will expect that she’ll find herself on or near the fence, somewhere among the big bunch of horses giving away substantial starts in the early furlongs, but she’ll need her best if she’s going to be matching strides with the closers.
True Chant, drawn 4, lines up off a most impressive run last time out, but with a recent form pattern which must be a slight cause of concern to connections. Three of her last five have been excellent, making her one of the more consistent runners in this event. But it’s the other two which cause a little worry. They have been sandwiched in between the good runs, giving her a good, bad repeating pattern over her last seven starts. She’ll be desperately looking to break that pattern this week. However the bottom line is that, from her last five, she’s won a Grade 2 and a Grade 3, as well as running a strong third in the G1-Sun State Cup, over this trip, giving her one of the strongest recent formlines of any runner. A daughter of War Chant, from True Slew Again (Miswaki / Seattle Slew), she’s the first foal of a three time Grade 2 winner, whose younger half sister, Miss True (El Prado) is also showing plenty of promise. Most of the field here like to settle further back, and with a noted speedster likely to set the pace, breeder / trainer Tgi will be content to have her top jockey give True Chant a handy sit within striking range of the lead, before closing the gap strongly in the stretch. Only she and Crime Beat have ever returned a 111 speed figure. This girl did it last time out, so a repeat will see her right in the mix.
Gate 5 is the starting position for Crushing Ignorance. A speed machine, she’s just taken up the turf in her last three runs, having raced competitively on the other surface in her first dozen runs. After comfortably winning her first two efforts on the grass, she disappointed some (including this scribe, who tipped her to win) with her fourth placing at Grade 3 level in her most recent start. However, looking at speed ratings, the 105 she posted then was far from shabby, and in victory at the same level one start earlier, she registered a 110. She has a couple more points in her favor. The furlong less to travel will do her no harm. She gets out with such impressive leads, and maintains such a speed, that she takes a power of running down. This time they’ve got a furlong less to achieve that sometimes impossible feat. She’s stepping up to Grade 1 for the first time on this surface, but the class query is irrelevant when we look back at her third in the filly’s dirt classic, the G1-Black Middle Flower. A scratchbred daughter of Pulpit / Storm Bird / Nashua, she’s earned her tilt at this event. Crushing Ignorance will give Zwango and stable supporters a huge run for their money. With no pressure on her early, she’ll open up a huge gap in the first half mile. She’ll look the likely winner as they straighten, and it will surprise no-one if they simply can’t catch her.
Drawn in gate 6 we find Crime Beat, a filly with a ton of ability, but with one apparent question mark hanging over her head. She’s been in the money eleven of her seventeen runs, meaning, for the mathematically challenged, that she’s missed the podium just six times in her career. The most recent four of those have been her four most recent starts in Graded races. On first analysis, it appears that she just doesn’t like taking on the better classes. But let’s look a little deeper. What was she doing at about this time one year ago. Oh Yeh: winning a Grade 1 at this meet. So much for that theory. So it’s back to the drawing board. Like so many of the runners in this event. She’s something of an enigma. Extremely capable, but also extremely capable of putting in a sub par run. Or two. Or three. If she repeats the 111 of two starts back, she’s right up there. She failed last time out in an ungraded stake, but some of her fancied opponents prepped with unsuccessful allowance efforts. Crime Beat is a daughter of Danehill Dancer, based on Simply Perfect (Storm Cat / Sadler’s Wells), a winner of three minor races from twenty two. She’s one of Lenny’s, so we know she’s worth her slot in anything she contests. She’ll settle back a bit and if she’s on her game, she’s as good a chance as any.
Miesques Gold lines up in the 7 gate. The top ranked filly of this class has earned her elevated ranking through a couple of high class wins several months ago, plus a series of near misses at the highest level in more recent times. Perhaps a sign of the competitiveness of this group of fillies, is the fact that she still heads the division, despite not having tasted victory since January. Less than twelve months ago she was the measuring stick, having taken out the G1-Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly, the G3-Panhandle Park Oaks and the G1-Loaded Charger Special between October and January. Her form tapered off for a few starts, before she bounced back with three Grade 1 podium finishes in August and September. She’s almost developed a recent pattern of three good, three bad. Well, if that’s the case, she’s just rounded out the three bad, and is due to return to something near her best this week. Miesque’s Gold is a daughter of Miesque’s Approval, from Bride’s Song (Unbridled’s Song / Coronado’s Quest). Her dam won four minor races from twenty nine, banking just over one hundred thousand dollars. This filly, her first issue, has far exceeded that, and despite that recent slump, would surprise no-one if she works home solidly from midfield to collect her overdue third Grade 1 trophy.
Barrier 8 is the starting gate for Otto Tribute. Had she come into this without her most recent run, question marks could be raised surrounding her longevity at the top of the tree. Following an astounding beginning to her career, where she put together ten wins in her first eleven starts, she struck an unexpected snag, missing the podium in each of her next three runs. Had she run her race (so to speak)? She was still putting up good numbers, but had lost that early killer finish. Some, especially opposition trainers, may have been happy to write her off as a spent force. But she counted two grade 1 victories in that early onslaught, and top class runners rarely go off the boil so soon, and Shadowclaw just knew that could not be the case. Now let’s look at her latest effort. True, only against Grade 3 opposition, but at the same distance she faces here, she proved she was far from finished. Not normally one to give away nearly ten lengths (her previous highest mid-race deficit, in a winning effort, was less than six lengths), she flew home from way back to stop the clock in 1.34.2, a time which will put her well in the mix here. Otto Tribute is a daughter of Maria’s Mon, from Fumascus (Fusaichi Pegasus / Northern Dancer), a Grade 2 winner and prolific producer of talent, with four black type progeny from five visits to the breeding shed. The bookmakers believe she’s recovered from the form slump and have installed her as favorite, albeit at a tempting quote. She’s back in town!
South Of Heaven, drawn 9, is yet another who fits into the ‘no she can’t – yes she can’ scenario. That first glance at her formguide would indicate that she can’t. She hasn’t won since March and she’s managed just three ITM’s in nine runs since. But let’s go back to March. That last victory was in the G1-How Are You Gentlemen Cup, over eight and a half furlongs. Since then, and with plenty of justification, Fastvett1 has been running her over longer trips. The way she was finishing off her races entitled her to a tilt at the EAAA Derbies and Oaks races. She ran third over eleven furlongs in the G1-The
Gate 10 is the starting position for Pazjazz Prayer, a promising filly who, since her Grade 1 victory at the Equinics, has been something of a cause of frustration for connections. Despite her recent slump the bookmakers are showing her plenty of respect. Up to and including that feature race day back in October, it had all been blue sky since she shifted from dirt to turf. Six runs had seen her take the podium every time. She’d won and been placed in ungraded company, ran third at Grade 2 level and capped it off on one of the sim’s feature days, with that win at the Equinics in the G1-United Cerebral Palsy. Then the wheels fell off. Staying at the top tier of competition, she put in a couple of moderate midfield efforts, before dropping back unsuccessfully to ungraded competition. A further drop last start saw her run a solid, but not spectacular, second in an allowance, a far cry from the glories of less than three months ago. A scratchbred daughter of A.P. Indy / Sadler’s Wells / Buckpasser, and with a Grade 1 trophy sitting in the cabinet she can’t be written off in any event, but I can’t help feeling that Bongo is experimenting to a degree here, and that the reduction in distance, back to the mile, is brought about more through desperation than through confidence. A Pazjazz Prayer pleading for an answer.
Auror Derby, lining up in barrier 11, is a more than handy filly who has chosen a fairly tough assignment for her first tilt at a turf Grade 1. She has fronted up at this level once before, on the dirt, back in March, where she ran an inglorious thirteenth in the G1-California Oaks. That was by far the worst run of her career to that point. She switched back to the turf soon after, and with two wins and a second from her next three at ungraded level, her star was on the rise. Elevated then to the graded ranks, she ran the race which she will want to at least repeat here. Beaten two lengths in the G2-Roberto Clemente Handicap, and with the winner clocking 1.34.6, she produced the best run of her career. Notably, that was her most recent run at a mile on the grass, and she took the winner’s prize at her only other start over the conditions she meets this weekend. Auror Derby is a daughter of Gone West. She’s the first foal of the Grade 2 placed Auror (Sadler’s Wells / Blushing Groom). Her immediate recent form doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but if trainer Auror can have her at her peak over her favorite trip, she may run a better race than expected. I feel she’s harshly treated (and perhaps a good value play) as the distinct outsider in the race.
Single White Pat lines up in barrier 12. While she lacks the strike rate of many of this week’s opponents, having won just three of her eighteen starts, she nevertheless has been running some very handy races against quality opposition. Her Grade 1 form as a three year old causes major concerns, but she did run third against full fields in both the G1-Filly Grand Prix and the G1-Breeders Bowl Filly Turf Juvenile around twelve months ago. She’s taken home a check in six of her last eight, all in black type contests. It’s the other two which cause the greatest concern. They are her only two races as a three year old in Grade 1 events, and she finished eleventh on both occasions. Single White Pat is a daughter of Gone West, from Three D FX (Deputy Minister / Danzig), the second foal of a stakeswinning mare who racked up an astonishing eleven black type ITM’s in her racing career. Her racing style varies a bit, but I’d expect Casino to plan for her to settle around midfield in this. While she can go fast enough to be a force if she puts in a top effort, she’s never won at the mile and that question mark surrounding the elite company means she’s hard to recommend with confidence against this star studded field.
Alayaya, drawn 13, had us instantly visiting google for a geography lesson. Or was she named for the daughter of Chataya, in which case her breeder was perhaps a tad unkind. No matter, I digress to no useful purpose. On first impressions what do we have? A grade 1 winner five starts back, and a last start loser in an allowance. Not a good mix. Let’s dig a little deeper. No slouch in her first four runs on the dirt, her speed figures took an immediate jump when switched to the grass, where she’s remained for her nine subsequent runs. Winning at allowance and stakes level at her first two grass efforts, it wasn’t long before she was making her presence felt in Graded company. When she took the trophy in June’s G1-The Cremation Stakes, she looked to have well and truly arrived. Sadly she couldn’t maintain the momentum. Three more unsuccessful runs against the elite failed to secure a podium finish, so she was sent back to the allowance ranks for a hollow confidence booster. The bad news: that effort can only have boosted the confidence of opposing trainers. A scratchbred daughter of A.P. Indy / Awesome Again / Sadler’s Wells, Alayaya has that rare and coveted Grade 1 victory on the scoreboard, so she can’t be taken too lightly, a point not missed in the early market. But I somehow feel that, unless things turn around soon, Given may looking to her future in the industry of her namesake.
Awaiting the starter in the widest gate, we see Moi Lolita. I recall commenting before her previous race, that she appeared to be reaching out for a bit more ground. I was wrong. She’s back to her pet distance here this weekend, and it would be wise to simply forget that most recent effort when analyzing her chances here. Concentrating on her ‘second’ career, (her first eight were on the dirt, where she was far from shabby), and omitting those two efforts over the extra furlong, we find a record more than appropriate for a challenge of this nature. Seven starts have supplied four wins, a second and a third. The highlight is her win at Grade 1 level at the Equinics in October, and she’s taken home the winners share in three of four at the mile. A couple of her opponents have slightly better times over the trip, but if she repeats the 1.34.6 of the Old Friends, she’ll be in the mix at the finish line. Moi Lolita is a scratchbred daughter of Awesome Again / A. P. Indy / Kingmambo. Ceclaim3 will expect her to settle around midfield, perhaps a tad closer to last than first, before providing her characteristic exciting finish. She’s one of the genuine contenders
Summary and Selections:
It’s one of those races where most runners have a solid for / against argument. Most are capable, on their day, of running great races. Virtually all of them have enough convictions to keep overconfidence at bay. Miesque’s Gold is the top rated entrant, but hasn’t won for a long time. Otto Ttribute boasts an amazing strike rate, but is she back? True Chant ran a blinder last start, but lately she doesn’t put two good runs together. Moi Lolita returns to her favourite trip, but ran an uncharacteristic race last start. South Of Heaven may appreciate the drop back in distance, but has forgotten how to win. Pazjazz Prayer is proven Grade1 quality, but a bit of a punt at the trip. Alayaya, also proven at the class, is in somewhat of a slump. Briseida has plenty of ability, but hasn’t produced the time likely to be needed here. Single White Pat can run the time, but needs to reclaim the ability to compete at this level. Crime Beat, also runs the time, but struggles against the best. Crushing Ignorance goes very fast, but didn’t sustain it last start. Auror Derby likes the conditions, but needs to prove herself at the standard. Retribution Angel loves the trip, but what about the class and El Gato Agudo is fast and advancing rapidly, but untested in Graded waters.
Crushing Ignorance to win. With no early pressure she’ll set the tempo. While opposition jockeys are stressing about the lead she’s built, she’ll bound away with a commanding gap, and keep going. Across the board.
Otto Tribute for second. I’m sure she’s back, and had she not been favorite, she may have got the nod for first
El Gato Agudo for third. Well drawn and consistent. When was the last time she went home without a check?
The Market:
6/1 – Otto Tribute
7/1 – Crime Beat
8/1 – El Gato Agudo, True Chant, Alayaya
9/1 – Crushing Ignorance
Qualification Order – Class Rating Position:
Miesque’s Gold – 1
Otto Tribute – 2
True Chant – 3
Moi Lolita – 9
South Of Heaven – 10
Pazjazz Prayer – 13