A Louisville Derby Spot is On The Line at Dubai

Goin’ to the desert on a horse with no name, lookin’ to get to Louisville…

No horses with no name here, and apologies to Dewey Bunnell of “America” for that reference… We got some solid runners running through the desert at Dubai! The headliners are GOOD BABY CAT and SURFIN’ GUINEA PIG, who finished just a head apart in the Grade 2 Moises Alou Cap and are the only two in this field in the current Top 20 3yo dirt rankings. But many here are not far away, and of course the winner is IN the big race, no matter the ranking!

A full field of 3-year-olds colts and a filly will be taking their shot at automatic eligibility to run in the 2025 Louisville Derby.

Of course, there is a $1.5 million purse to chase, too.

DOMINGO’S BEARD (9/1) is a stakes-winning son of Irish sire Blackbeard that has a pair of stakes wins for Lawdro‘s stables. He started his career on turf, as might be expected considering the pedigree, but improved markedly when tried on the dirt. This is his first graded-stakes try, asking a lot.

HITS DIFFERENTLY (10/1) comes from the Tenpoint group and looks like a “rabbit” in this field, trying to ensure an honest pace for his stablemates to track. He did manage to hold on to the shadow of the wire last time out, and actually could surprise. Then again, there is no lack of early speed in this field anyway, and he might get outrun.

DREIT (12/1) is a son of Japanese sire Drefong with just under $200k in earnings. It seems something “clicked” for this runner from the strong Tenpoint Racing Stables, as he blew away a stakes field, then did the same in the Grade 3 Giant Slayer Classic. We could see a really big run for this just-off-the-pace runner.

DISHIN AND SWISHIN (13/1) is a son of Justify who has just five starts under his belt, but has improved by a large margin since getting the chance to race around two turns for Baggio‘s group. I get the idea this one is just scratching the surface of how good he can become. Might be the very model of the late-developer type that these “Derby lock” races are made for. He should be on or very near the early pace.

AMERICAN CREED (12/1) is a son of Jimmy Creed from the Worldclass stable group. He forced the pace before fading a bit late in the G2 Sleepy Fan Stakes last time out, posting a solid speed number in the process. Distance may prove to be a problem, though.

GREASE XXX (12/1) comes from the Beerkeg stable group and is looking to reverse the form he has shown since his win in the Grade 2 KeggerDay Juvenile Mile last August. This Curlin gelding appears to be in over his head here, unless Grease is the word (okay, another lame pop culture reference… Gotta stop looking at social media…)

LOST MY NOVELTY (11/1) is a Tenpoint entry and a veteran of two Twitch races. He has won just over $100k while getting two wins in seven tries. The Into Mischief colt has hit the board in his two stakes tries and his strong bloodlines suggest he has more in the tank.

The powerful Gowans racing group sends PARDON MY TAKE (13/1) into the fray. The Tapit colt has no stakes wins to his name, but has shown strong late closes in recent stakes and also the Dubai 2000 Guineas (grade 3) at this racecourse. A bit longer distance today for this royally-bred runner, that might be the ticket.

SURFIN’ GUINEA PIG (6/1) outkicked GOOD BABY CAT in a thrilling Grade 2 race at Belgium and might have a slight edge in the bloodlines department, being a son of Frankel with a lot of dirt influence on the dam’s side. This is another from a strong stable group, that of Mightyforego.

FREYR ONNE (11/1) failed badly in his only Graded try, but has raced strongly in three starts since then. The Daniel racing group member has a lot to prove with these.

GOOD BABY CAT (7/1) was 2nd in a photo in that G2 Moises Alou Cap. He is still looking for his first Graded win, but has still managed to grab $431k and a stakes win for Given‘s powerful stable group. Also has two other graded-stakes placings and a 5th in last year’s Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile. If you were to look up “knocking on the door” in the dictionary, you’d see a picture of this Good Magic colt next to it. Is today the day?

RARE PURCHASE (13/1) is a daughter of somewhat obscure UK sire Chaldean, but that one a is a son of Frankel. The rest of the pedigree is quite turfy also, which explains the filly’s first three races being on turf. The switch to dirt worked out very well, and after three allowance wins, her strong 3rd in the Grade 1 Full Body Suit convinced the RWhisper stable group that this Derby Lock try could work out very well.

COLT INYOUR STABLE (9/1) represents the Punter34 racing group, and was passed late by today’s two favorites, racing evenly throughout that race. That was only the Practical Joke colt’s fifth career start, so he could improve off that.

END OF BEGINNING (8/1) hails from the Beerkeg group and comes off a bad run in the Grade 2 Sleepy Fan Stakes. The Tapit gelding won a small stakes at Delaware just before that, and it is hoped a return to that form happens here. Those odds seem a bit low to me…

This one oughta be fun to watch… Can the favorite come out of the clouds for a “golden ticket”? Can one of the Beerkeg entries turn recent form on its head?

Will Taylor Swift get married? Wait, another pop-culture reference… Gotta get ahold of myself here…

Tune in Saturday and see…