The Japan Sprint
14 Horses have assembled for one of the top sprint prizes on Turf, the line-up is headed by Breeders Bowl 3rd Credit Castle, but several other horses have Grade 1 experience, the turf is firm for this 1,000,000$ 6f extravaganza. Let’s take a look at the field, where the bookies have 3 joint favourites:
#1 MINGOON(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=52326
29 Races – 8 Wins – 330,538$
The strange thing about this 4yo Mingun Colt is his strength in ungraded racing compared to his flops, whenever he ran in a Graded Stakes race. Somehow it seems to make him nervous, when the big cups are lined up. Last time out he won an ungraded Stakes race in Norway with a convincing 108 over 6.5f early November, before that 2 tries at Grade 2’s produced a 5th and a 2nd place, the 2nd being his best Graded Stakes result. So now after winning 3 races total this season he goes for his first Graded Stakes win, and what a triumph would it be the Japan Sprint today.
#2 ERMINGTON WHO. .(KY) 22/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=148000
16 Races – 5 Wins – 58,692$
If you see the earnings of the 4yo Point Given colt, you realize, that he is not really a force in Stakes racing, he has been coming along nicely in ALWs recently, winning 2 of his last 3 starts, but whenever entered into a Stakes race, he simply can’t compete with his speed, last time out, he was 5th with a 98 over 6.5f. He generally likes sprinting, with his lifetime high a 107 over 7.5f, a speed he could never match, a 102 his second best. Today it will be an uphill struggle, and his entry is based more on getting a free starting spot, then being skill based.
#3 FUNNY SIGHED 80/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=80710
48 Races – 10 Wins – 179,302$
A typical tsunami entry, claimed for 4,000$ 2 races ago, he will go nowhere, no further comments.
#4 WONDERBOY DIESEL 46/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=38176
55 Races – 14 Wins – 398,740$
Claimed for 5,000 2 races ago, see above.
#5 FLASH OF DESTINY(ENG) 22/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=70540
14 Races – 4 Wins – 250,318$
The 3yo Dubai Destination Colt returned to Turf sprinting 3 races ago, and has responded more than well so far, he cracked 100 over 6f, and followed with a 107 2 ago, both ALW races, where he finished 2nd, and then came his big race, the GR Simsters held the Turf Sprint of their residency, and Flash of Destiny was suddenly all alone in front, scoring with a 109 nipping Keep on Burnin by a ¼ length. It was a great celebration, and despite the bookies don’t give him credit yet, his entry into the Grade 1 makes perfect sense, at 3 years, he still looks to have lots of potential, and is likely going to improve further. His running style from the backend makes him vulnerable, if his kick is not placed perfect, but look for a good value on your money with this outside shot.
#6 REZURRECTION(KY) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=10399
17 Races – 7 Wins – 266,617$
Another nice 3yo colt, this one by Dayjur, he has been improving a lot in his last 2 races, both over 6f brought out 108 speeds, nice numbers for a 3yo with only 17 races under his belt. He won a Stakes race in Utah, and confirmed the result by a third place in the Grade 1 Because I said so Stakes, 6f look his perfect trip, and he is 3 out of 5 in his last starts over exactly 6f. He likes to set up his own finishes by setting the early pace and leading the races he runs early, sometimes resulting in gettin caught by faster finishers, but it will be crucial for him to get the early lead.
#7 RED LIGHT RUN IT(ENG) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=142323
20 Races – 6 Wins – 1,191,080$
A superstar in the making, this 4yo Dansili Colt has been skipping the Breeders Bowl Sprint, and prepared for the Japan Sprint, he was 2nd just ahead of Rezurrection in the Because I said so Stakes last time out, matching the 108 of the 3yo just beaten by ¼ length. He likes to stalk a fast pace, which he should find again here, his last win in August was a big one, when he won the Equinics Turf Sprint, a race seeing him set a big 112 pace. He has run 105+ speeds in his last 6 races, and looks a monster of consitency at this part of the year. He finished 8th in the Japan Sprint last year, but was hindered by rain on a good turf, with the ground being firm he should be a good pick, being declared joint favourite by the bookies.
#8 CREDIT ADDICTION(IRE) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=120588
26 Races – 10 Wins – 1,006,015$
Another Millionaire is the 2nd if the 3 joint favourites, the 4yo High Chapparal Colt comes from the Breeders Bowl Sprint, where he finished a disappointing 10th, holding the lead too early, and then struggling all the way, it may be vital for him this time not to get the lead to early, as he generally is no front runner. He won 2 stakes races this season, the last one in September, and was a good 2nd in the Equinics, just beaten by Red Light Run it. He is generally much better than in the Breeders Bowl, with a 115 his lifetime high set in a stakes win in April. Last year he was 9th in the Japan Sprint, another victim of the rain that day. Look for the former Grade 1 winner(the Because I said so Stakes in 07) to try and get another good race, but consistency hasn’t been his first choice so far, so everything is possible.
#9 GENERAL’S CHARIOT 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=53992
52 Races – 22 Wins – 4,999,700$
The 6yo Gone West Horse is a real sprint warrior, and he only needs a 5th place today, to crack the 5 Million Dollar Lifetime Earnings mark, however, this season has been a struggle, and he completly ran out of gas in the Summer, when he finished 9th in the Equinics, however he still had his moments. In June he won the Grade 2 King’s Fall Stakes over 5f with a 110, his best speed this season, and that shows he’s not hit the age wall, yet, as his lifetime high was a 111 in 2005, in 06 and 07 he managed to win Graded Races with 108 and 107, so he kind of specialized in winning slow races, something which will be tough to get today. I think there is too much speed in the race for him, so he likely will have to wait fir his 7th Grade 1 triumph. But always expect the old warrior to rebound, and don’t write him off yet.
#10 HASGOTTHESIMTALKIN(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=144691
20 Races – 7 Wins – 560,521$
The 3yo Pulpit Colt comes fresh off a Grade 1 win in the Because i said so Stakes, and he will face old rivals in Red Light Run it and Rezzurection, which both will look to rebound form with him, however, as he likes to come from the end of the field, the speedy pace of Rezzurection can set him up perfectly. His lifetime high is a 112 he ran in September, winning a Grade 3. He looks great since facing older horses for the second time, 2 back, when he won an easy stakes race. It’s his first appearance in Japan, and it’s likely he can keep the old rivals from the Grade 1 in England at distance again, however watch out for a newer rival yet to come.
#11 PERFECT PRESENCE 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=100132
43 Races – 8 Wins – 622,309$
The 5yo Pleasently Perfect colt is feeling his age, and has no consistency this season, he won the Grade 2 Cane Todd Stakes in August, and was 2nd to General’s Chariot in the King’s Fall Stakes, on the other hand, he disappointed last time out in the Because I said so Stakes in 7th, when only producing a 102. So his season best was a 109, his season worst an 88, and in between he has been hitting numbers each time. His career highlights have been 2 Grade 2 wins, one at 6f, one at 5.5f, and like for most speed balls, that can well run the 5f, he has up and down performances all the time. He is a stakes horse since the middle of 2007, and on a great day can likely beat anyone, the problem is,it’s far more likely he has a bad day today in Japan.
#12 CREDIT CASTLE(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=141398
18 Races – 8 Wins – 645,115$
Bred by seldom used Sire Castledale, the 3yo has been in good shape over the last weeks, he was 3rd in the Breeders Bowl Turf Sprint, and his last 2 races have been 113 and 114 speeds, simply great for sprinters, and showing he has matured all into a top sprinter. It was back in August, when his connections still believed they had a top miler, but after a 9th place in the Equinics mile race, he was reverted to a sprinter, and it paid of well, the 2000 Guineas participant has proven, that he prefers the shorter distances, and after winning a Grade 2, and finishing 3rd in the Breeders Bowl he wants his first Grade 1 victory, and the opportunity is there today. He likes to fire his finish from the middle if the field, and that looks like a good spot today.
#13 THE UNION LABEL(IRE) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=87341
26 Races – 7 Wins – 116,399$
The 7yo Giant’s Causeway Horse looks well overmatched, having undergone a tough 3 year break from racing, the seldomly raced 7yo has yet to win a stakes race, and his lifetime high of 108 looks no match in this cannonball field. Plus he seems to prefer 7f distances, as his only 6f appearance this season only brought a 102. Look for no danger from him today.
#14 SCIENTIFIC PROOF(IRE) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=33334
19 Races – 7 Wins – 250,818$
The 3yo Galileo colt comes off from his best result so far, a third place in a Grade 3 race, it will be tough to judge him on that performance, he has yet to break into the 110 mark, with his lifetime high a 106 speed mark, simple said, not good enough today. At 19 career races it’s very unlikely he will get another huge push, which he would need to stand a chance today, look for him to get a place somewhere in the middle of the field, but he seems not to have the speed to challenge the best.
My pick for a win is Credit Castle, but look for good challenges from Hasgotthesimtalkin and Red Light Run it, all in all a great field lining up for this Grade 1, which surely stands tough for it’s name.