Grade 1 Arkansas Distaff
Welcome to Arkansas, today some of the nicest Long Dirt Filly and Mare Routers will hit the track here at Arkansas race track. The 3yo and older fillies and mares include some well-known Graded winners, as well as some up-and coming hopefuls, 13 will aim for the glory of a Grade 1 win over the 12f distance. A nice long route, which attracts some runners, usually going shorter, but let’s take a look at the field:
#1 HIDDEN MESSAGES(GER) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=150330
12 Races – 6 Wins – 198,712$
The 3yo Monsun Filly is coming along nicely and has progressed very well over the last 3 races, she won 2 out of 3, with the oneshe lost at 14f likely 2f too far. She won an 11f and 12f Stakes race, so the step up to Graded company seems logic. The speed numbers at 108 and 109 promise a lot more, she likes to get into races slowly out of the gate, usually in the second half of the field or even last early, and then finishing strong. The second half of this race clearly should be her strong point, and it has to be seen, if she can challenge the early leaders.
#2 GREYSTONE CHAPEL(KY) 13/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=133920
15 Races – 5 Wins – 167,840$
The 3yo Empire Maker filly looks a lot like Hidden Messages from her improvement over the last 3 races, 2 of which she won. A 12f ALW and a 13f Stakes race have been her, she ran a 102 in both 12f races, last time out a 2nd place in a restricted stakes race against the strong residency members of GR Simsters. She can both run from the front and behind, so it’s likely up to the jockey to judge the early pace, and decide, if he wants to attack, or to play it cool, likely not as strong as #1, but a sure tough challenger on a roll recently, despite the huge odds.
#3 DESPERADO’S MAMBO 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=117751
27 Races – 10 Wins – 647,927$
The 5yo Kingmambo Mare had a rather tough season, her last win results from a 12f turf stakes race over 12f, and was in March. Her career highlight sure was the Grade 3 win in february at 11f dirt, which shows her versatility and liking for longer routes, however recently she preferred 12, but couldn’t hit the winners circle. Last time out she ran a 105 in the Breeders Bowl Undercard Filly Long Route, a race which she finished 4th in, one better than last year. At Smackdown she was just a nose away from stealing her first Grade 1 win, when 2nd with a 105 over 12f dirt. Today, she’d like to do one better, but I feel her speed has slowed down, and the challengers are just too good.
#4 K’S FUGITIVE 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=96437
30 Races – 11 Wins – 695,650$
The 5yo Peintre Celebre Mare is running career high speeds recently, but it will be tough to score with her lifetime high of 105, that she ran 2 back. She won 2 of her last 4, one a 12f stakes race, so the preparance looks good, last time out she ran a 101 over 11f, which was good for a 3rd place in an 11f Stakes race, as she prefers sitting in the middle of the pack, she may find it tough to keep up in the end, when the backmarkers set their stretch run.
#5 CSI SUPER 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=99166
40 Races – 12 Wins – 1,748,373$
The 5yo Point Given Mare shows us our first millionaire, and what a great season she had, she spoiled the win at the Smackdown event over 12f dirt by just a nose away from Desperado’s Mambo, a race which may not point at the winner here, as I see a 105 coming short today, CSI Super always looked good, as long as facing fillies, so her chances are live. However, when she tried to tackle colts, she always finsihed near last, like in the recent Breeders Bowl Marathon, where she was 13th. In general her speed numbers have dropped since her Smackdown win and a break may be necessary soon, but look for her setting the early speed today.
#6 OUR DEEPEST FEAR(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=87183
19 Races – 5 Wins – 244,833$
The 4yo A.P. Indy filly has been making huge improvements in the level she ran at recently, however she comes in on an kind of unlucky streak, finishing 2nd 3 times in a row, however in all of those 3 races she topped 105, with a 108 her new career high, but that was 10f. Nevertheless she is the 2nd favourite, and has not run sub 100 or out of the money in her last 7. She still lacks the winning punch in Grade 1s, but well that may change today.
#7 BILBO ROCKS(KY) 18/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=150630
14 Races – 5 Wins – 133,748$
The 3yo Lemon Drop Kid filly has been hitting the stakes level just recently, but comes into the Grade 1 flying off a career high 105 over 13f, she may find the 12f even too short today. She won 4 of her last 6 races, really developing into a nice long route specialist, and after cracking a stakes race for the first time makes the logical move, she can run either from behind or the lead, depending on speed, so another not so sure where in the field to see horse. But she will need another improvement, as 105 likely will come up short.
#8 GASHOUSE GANG(KY) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=143795
14 Races – 7 Wins – 692,774$
Another huge looking 3yo comes into the race with this Smart Strike filly, but she had been at her best at 9-10f, so rating her career high 109 last time has to be seen different, she has proven to have the class, when winning the Grade 1 Birmingham Stakes in New York, and handled 11f on a good course without trouble earlier this year. Now she needs to proof, that the 12f will give her no weakness, and she can stay the distance, as she likes to stalk the leaders from around 2 lengths out early on, a fast pace could suit her well.
#9 BLACK TUESDAY(KY) 7/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=63812
25 Races – 13 Wins – 2,102,345$
The 4yo Storm Cat filly comes off a huge disappointment, one of the hot picks in the Breeders Bowl Distaff, it looked like she had a complete offday, running a 98 for 12th place, her first sub 100 race since November last year. Her career best 116 came at 10f in September in the Michigan Distaff, she really has been best at 10f, where she won 3 Grade 1s, however, as a 3yr old, she won the Chestnut Stakes, and proofed she can stay 11f, so she should be able to hande the 12f today. After a great 3yo campaign, she just found her winning ways this summer, when winning the Grade 1 It’s almost Friday Handicap, she will be tough to beat today, and as she likes to attack from dead last, the speed today should be no problem for her.
#10 BLACK PLEASURE 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=89373
41 Races – 13 Wins – 577,557$
The 5yo Stravinsky Mare is a race track veteran, who found her winning ways racently, when winning a 13f Stakes race, and after winning several ALWs won her first Stakes race of the season. Being a Grade 3 winner in 2007, she may be back at the right track, however this 12f Grade 1 is way to tough for her, despite winning 4 of the last 6, her best speed in that stretch was a 102, and that will not be enough for today.
#11 GRAUPOINT(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=144192
20 Races – 6 Wins – 333,450$
The 3yo point Given filly looks like a tough challenger on first look, however, her recent(2 back) career best 113 came at 9.5f, and her stamina over 12f is rather untested. She became a nice challenger at 9-10f, winning a Grade 3 and collecting several in the money finishes in Graded Company. Her last attempt over 12f was a stakes win in May, and judging on her 99 speed, she should have matured a lot since then, which could result in a huge speed.
#12 ROME(ENG) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=89769
14 Races – 6 Wins – 909,591$
If you see 14/1 odds, it’s not likely you see one of the hottest horses coming into the race, however Rome has just recently won the Breeders Bowl Filly Undercard Long Route, and that in a classy 108. The 3yo Dubawi Mare with that beat Desperado’s Mambo in style, and that at odds of 24.9, so the odds maker still has to gain ground on her, and expect her to give the bookies more trouble today, as she also won the 10f 3yo filly event at the Equinics, so an almost millionaire, cracking a career best last time out, could develop into a winning combo.
#13 OROWELL(KY) 13/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=120580
32 Races – 10 Wins – 436,359$
The 4yo Medaglia d’Oro filly actually is way better on turf, but after struggling recently, and remembering a 13f dirt stakes triumph in February earned her a trip to this 12f dirt race. Remebering her lifetime high was a 108 over 13f on dirt may even give her more of a upswing, but that was back in 2007, in 2008 she struggled with a season best of 102 over turf and 99 on dirt. Look for a huge comeback, or likely a step back, has tendencies to be a big bust.
Overall I like some 3yos to take the race away, with Rome surely being a hot pick to beat favoured older horses Black Tuesday and Our Deepest Fear. I also like Hidden Messages, but perhaps just his German Blood makes me believe so.