Japanese G2 Prancing Ferry Stakes

We are in Japan, a country that I have never visited but would love to one day.  And we have the Prancing Ferry Stakes, a Grade II over 6 furlongs for the girls who are 3yo’s and up.  The track is a firm turf track and the purse is a very healthy $250,000.

Big race in Japan rated at G2 and with the biggest odds at 20/1 it should be a close race for these obviously already proven champions.  Lets have a look at them in closer detail and pick out some likely winners.

1 WONDERGIRL EDEN

Owner: zeco5
Record: 31-9-5-7
Earnings: $520,165
Jockey: A Hudson
Odds: 6/1   

Some good breeding here out of Storm Cat x Kingmambo x Storm Bird.  Would love to have this mare to breed to in my stables. Her last win was back in June where she ran in Allowance company over 6 furlongs and posted an impressive speed of 110.  Running consistently in the 100 range since then her most notable run was in the G1 World Vision Restricted over 5.5 furlongs with a speed of 107 and second across the line.  Has run fifth in both her races since that run both at G1 level as well over 6 and 6.5 furlongs.  Probably due for another good run and could figure here.  Worth considering.
 
2 THREE TAPS(KY) 

Owner: slewsback
Record: 23-8-3-4
Earnings: $538,392
Jockey: W Manfull
Odds: 5/1    

In career best form is out of Tapit x Dixie Union x Distinctive Pro.  Coming off a solid win over 6.5 furlongs in the G1 The Green Lady Handicap in September with a speed of 109. Her previous run wasn’t as good with a speed rating of only 98 although she did finish third. Her run in the Stakes Alyscorn Special in early August was another sensational win  with a speed rating of 109 again on a good turf track over 6 furlongs. She likes to come from towards the rear of the field and swamp the opposition in the final dash for the line. Three taps and its all over if this one gets her run right.

3 JUNIOR ACHIEVER(KY) 

Owner: simon1966
Record: 18-6-5-3
Earnings: $333,216
Jockey: W Lloyd
Odds: 6/1    

Certainly achieving the results to date with 6 wins from 18 races with 3 of those wins since June.  Out of Lemon Drop Kid x Storm Cat x Round Table has been running up and down in distance successfully from 6 to 9 furlongs.  Most noted recent runs were in the Slickfest Bonanza and Hoxie Stakes which were both wins over 6.5 and 7.5 furlongs respectively and speeds of 102 and 108.  Last time out was a second placing at Allowance level over 6.5 furlongs but still posted a good speed of 106.  In good form and looks ready to race here.  Not a junior achiever anymore!

4 PLEASANT LASS(KY)

Owner: richardobe
Record: 26-7-5-4
Earnings: $342,336
Jockey: L Fenner
Odds: 7/1    

Running almost exclusively on dirt with only 8 runs in her career on the turf.  Her last time out was on turf over 6 furlongs in the Boldly Flap Stakes race where she finished first past the post and a speed of 103.  While posting good speeds on dirt as well all around the 100 mark, her previous race on turf was way back in April where she ran 7th in the G3 Short Female Sprint over 6.5 furlongs and a slower speed of 99.  She looks like she can run either turf or dirt thats for sure. Out of Pleasantly Perfect x Night Shift x Cutlass, her sire has produced runners on dirt and turf – probably leaning more to the dirt though.  Chance for sure in this one but she will need to be at her very best.

5 FIRSTTIME(NM) 

Owner: lookout
Record: 27-10-7-3
Earnings: $478,464
Jockey: C Maxie
Odds: 6/1    

Bred from Slew’s Pot of Gold x Crafty Prospector x Tabasco Cat is coming off two wins.  Her last run in the Rigidly Within Sea Stakes she led wire to wire winning by over 2 lengths in a small field of five runners.  She posted a slower speed of 98 in that one.  Her second recent win was in September in the STorm Off The Lake Special stakes race over 6.5 furlongs with a very good speed of 110 and another wire to wire win.  That is probably her maximum distance after fading over 7.5 furlongs in August in the High Taps Special Stakes.  If she can back up that speed of 110 here today she will be challenging for the win you would think.  Can she get a third win on the trot here?

6 ROCK RIVER DREAMER(IRE)

Owner: rockriver2
Record: 29-9-5-7
Earnings: $366,263
Jockey: C Roser
Odds: 5/1    

From Giant’s Causeway(IRE) x Seattle Slew x Alydar. Her last run out was a bit of a disappointment with a 7th place finish over 7.5 furlongs in the Free Walleye Stakes.  Although she did post a reasonable speed of 100 the finish wasn’t there.  Previous to that she finished second by a nose in the G3 Numbers Don’t Lie Stakes over 6 furlongs. Getting the impression she likes the shorter distances? Wrong because her next race back in August she posted a win over 7.5 furlongs in the Bonnie Plus Cut Challenge and an impressive speed of 109.  She has also won at 8 furlongs in Allowance company in June also with a speed of 109.  So she can definitely run and anything from 6 to 8 furlongs seems to suit her. She’s not the most consistent runner here but when she is going to pressure for the win she is usually coming from the rear of the field.  Definite chance if she puts it all together.

7 SJ’S SJ(KY)

Owner: booberry
Record: 22-7-5-1
Earnings: 920,995
Jockey: G Arnold
Odds: 5/1    

Now that I’ve seen the breeding of Smarty Jones x Northern Dancer x Full Out I can see where the name of SJ comes from. 7 wins from 22 outings she is no slouch.  Her last run was a fourth place finish in the G1 Green Lady Handicap stakes race.  Prior to that she posted three wins in a row.  Late August was the G2 Hearty Appetite Sprint over 6 furlongs, speed of 106.  Early August was the G1 World Vision Restricted over 5.5 furlongs and a speed of 108.  Then back in June where she started her run of wins was in the Naskra Hitting Stakes over 6 furlongs, speed of 105.  Very consistent in her speeds she will be figuring here you would think.  Likes to lead also so it will be interesting to see the battle between her and Firsttime who both like to be the frontrunner.

8 ANTIETAM CREEK(IRE)

Owner: dlynche
Record: 18-5-4-0
Earnings: $136,590
Jockey: W Ratzlaff 
Odds: 20/1    

Another from the sire Giant’s Causeway(IRE), x Deputy Minister x Key to the Mint, this one is the longshot of the race at 20/1 odds on the tote.  And she is probably at those long odds because of the distance. It looks too short for her in my opinion. She has won at this distance back in March but it was on an off track.  She has been running more recently at 7.5 furlongs with some success at Stakes level but each time she has looked like she has been wanting more distance.  Good runner though – she has posted a top speed of 109 over 7 furlongs so she can definitely run.  Love to see her over 8 furlongs and beyond…

9 AWESOME LESSON(KY)

Owner: stungunn
Record: 17-5-1-1
Earnings: $130,106
Jockey: C Word
Odds: 14/1

From Awesome Again x Kingmambo x Nureyev, you can see where she gets her name.  And at 14/1 odds she would love to give a lesson to these other runners and it would be an awesome one at that if she could take this out today.  She is coming off a win in the Wendy J.C. Bonanza stakes over 7.5 furlongs.  She also ran in the G1 Green Lady Handicap over 6.5 furlongs in September but finished in 7th place there.  Her other recent wins have been at Allowance level.  Distance is probably about right – I just think she is going to find this too hard.  Time will tell and I have often been wrong. Probably more times than I’ve been right!
   
10 RUDY 

Owner: stupor1
Record: 30-16-5-2
Earnings: $949,256
Jockey: K Ledwith
Odds: 6/1 

16 wins from 30 outings??? Did I read that right? Yes I did. And those wins have come from G1, Stakes and Allowance levels so this girl can run. She likes to come from the rear of the field which makes it even more exciting for the crowds too.  Her career best speeds were posted in March and April on a yielding turf track over 5.5 and 6 furlongs at G1 and G2 level with speeds of 114 and 112.  Thats impressive!  In fact she has had 4 runs on an off track never finishing worse than third place.  Her last couple of runs at 6 furlongs and then 6.5 furlongs she has looked like wanting more distance. So this may well be too short of her.  Still you cannot discount her at all and she could well take this out.  Only question I’ve got is why she has not had more runs on an off track cause she looks very very impressive in the races she has run on that type of track.

Well this is a hard one. Lots of close runners here which of course should make for some very close racing and a great race for the spectactors and punters. Big race of course with a sizable purse so there will be plenty of goers among these runners. I still really like #10 in Rudy even though I think its going to be short for her.  My picks are:

10 RUDY
5 FIRSTTIME(NM)
2 THREE TAPS(KY)