What a Sham – Grade 1
It’s the week after Breeders Bowl, and thats like most trainers feel, the top horses of the sim showed their class last week, so what can a Grade 1 offer this week, well, at least an interesting race, that has almost 7 horses capable of winning it, well, it only drew 7, but at least almost all look competitive. This sponsored 9f Grade 1 on the Turf takes place on a firm turf here in West Virginia, and we’ll waste no time, but look at the runners:
#1 GHOST WHISPERS(KY) 5/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=130133
19 Races – 5 Wins – 313,610$
The 4yo Gone West Mare is one of the biggest climbers in the rankings over the last few months, being an average ALW horse for it’s 3yo season, in February she was switched to turf, and she responded well, out of 7 turf races till today she won 4. 3 back in June she ran out of ALW conditions, and found herself in the Middle of a Grade 2 in August. That race she really developed into a class horse, she stormed home with a 115 taking not only the race, but also the fans in fascination. She returned to the track with a 5th in a Grade 1 in September, and today she wants to use the easy lookin 7 horse race to get career Grade 1 Number 1. She can both run near the lead and storm away from behind the pack, the small field may be to her advantage.
#2 MILLENIUM FLEET(IRE) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=125901
21 Races – 6 Wins – 162,010$
The 4yo Dubawi mare has developed into a nice stakes runner, and consequently their owner wants to use this small field Grade 1 to make the next step, well I have to say “not so fast, young gentleman”. It looks a step too high from my point of view, her lifetime high is a 104 over 9.5f, so after sprinting early in her career she nicely showed some stamina recently. However, there is a difference between winning a stakes race in july and a Grade 1 after Breeders Bowl Week. Last time out she finished 3rd over 9.5f with a nice 100. Overall a nice horse, that progressed well as a 4yo having some nice wins, but attempting this Grade 1 may lead to struggles.
#3 RJ’S DANA(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=128270
33 Races – 10 Wins – 105,067$
A very strange entry from tsunami stables, likely just looking for a soft field to steal some appearance BP. The 4yo Aldebaran Mare has only run in 3 races on turf so far, the last time back in August 07. What we really see here is a dirt sprinter, that after being claimed with a 2K tag has used soft STR ALWs to get some in the money finishes. I wouldn’t even make a prediction, by how many lengths she will get beaten, it’s likely she’ll be distanced.
#4 MOSTLY IN BROWN(IRE) 4/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=123991
25 Races – 11 Wins – 915,360$
Well, talking about a Grade 1 Race, you wanna talk about Grade 1 winners, and in post 4 we finally get one, the 5yo Theatrical Mare won the Black Gold Stakes over 10f back in August, and has some nice places in other feature sim events, like a 3rd place at a restricted Smackdown race. She clearly brings some experience and could get this race simply by not being intimidated of the Grade 1 Parade procedures. Last time out she tried a 10.5f Turf Stakes race but failed to connect, finishing 6th with a speed of just 96. Her lifetime best os a 109, she ran twice over 11f and over 12f. In general she might prefer a slightly longer distance, but with the small field, perhaps 9f are just enough to get in front for her. She really likes to trail the field early and accelerate later. Take a look at her, how she feels before the race, may run a cracker, but also has the tendency to run slow sometimes.
#5 SKULLCRUSHER(KY) 3/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=132118
20 Races – 10 Wins – 1,498,179$
If we spoke of experience regarding Mostly in Brown, this 4yo Awesome Again Mare brings it all. She won back to back Grade 1s in August and September, beating Ghost Whispers in the Demona Handicap. Last time out she ran a very poor race, finishing 11th in the Flower Pot Stakes, but blame that on the yielding turf, on firm ground she won 3 in a row, and she still brings a 50% lifetime winning percentage. She usually has a great form this time of the year, already as a 3yo she won 2 Grade 1s in October and November. She may simply destroy the field, if she comes close to her 116 speed in the Demona Handicap, also run over 9f. Her flexible running style allows her to take the lead, or even win from the back, which is a big plus in a small runner event.
#6 STAYER(IRE) 7/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=110323
29 Races – 9 Wins – 670,447$
Another fine horse, that brings Grade 1 Experience and class, the 5yo El Prado mare ran her best race back in August, when she finished 2nd in the 4yo+ filly Equinics Event over 10f. Winning stakes races in June and May she recently fell into kind of an autumn hole, where she will try to climb out of today. Running 4th in an ALW and a 9.5f Stakes race is not really the preperation you’d like for a Grade 1 Race, but if the field is small as this, you likely take a chance. She may appreciate the step back to 9f, and will likely gun for an early lead, to try and get the field into the final stretch in a quick pace to her liking.
#7 TETE IN A ZASHAAN(NZ) 4/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=132146
26 Races – 8 Wins – 240,732$
The 5yo Zabeel Mare looks to get back in the winners circle, her last win dates back from may in a 8.5f Stakes Race. Recently she tried some Graded Stakes with mixed success, finishing 7th in a Grade 2 3 races back, but last time out looked much more promising, she finished 2nd in a Grade 3 over 9f, so just todays distance. It was her best speed since a career high 109 in June, but that ran over 8f. She likes to take the lead, but will struggle gettin that, with Stayer in the race, it is possible those two horses wear themself down.
Which brings us right into my Race outlook, I really expect Stayer and Tete in Zashaan to battle for the lead and wear each other down, to make the race open for closers like Skullcrushers, Ghostwhispers and Mostly in brown, if I had to pick a Top 3, I’d pick those 3, in that order, and now good luck betting at your favourite bookies, and of course to all the horse owners in the race.