The Breeders Bowl Turf Mile
This 2008 Breeders Bowl marks a full decade that the Breeders Bowl has been held in the Sim, a jubilant milestone for the Sim. There have been subplots and dramatic moments galore, a tale for every race run. But even though the Breeders Bowl has a million stories running through it, most of the attention always gets shifted to the “star events”. The Classic usually is a fine arbiter of who is in the hunt for Horse of the Year. The Distaff—and not that godawful Ladies Classic moniker that manages this year at Santa Anita to be both pretentious and condescending all at once—stokes the flames of debate over which filly is tops in her class. The Sprint usually goes to the swiftest, and the juvenile races are a forecast in who deserves the role of heir apparent in the quest for roses in May. And in Sim lore, the Turf the last couple of years has been incredibly deep and varied, with more egos on the line than in any presidential debate. The winner usually gets more glory than most others regardless of their Sim specialty, and most of the runners are in control of their own destinies and reputation when it comes time for all other kinds of honors, because the grass division is always so deep.
But what of the miler?
In the Sim, while you as a trainer are only limited by your imagination, the horses your imagination creates have heretofore unknown limitations built into them. It’s up to each trainer to find them, and then train to them. And usually you can tell who’s strictly a speedball and who is a distance specialist through both pedigree speculation and trial-and-error. But in between the routers and the sprinters is the miler, a class that by default has everyone else who hasn’t yet found a place in the world. It is a mighty large world, and if you’re a lucky trainer, you can play at all the middle distances and start figuring out a specific game plan to massive success. There’s no Sim end-of-season award for a miler, no reputation-making glory, just the knowledge that at the universally-accepted classic distance of a mile, your horse was tops. And if you get lucky, your reputation can take root with repeated successes, away from the main stage which horses like Sunnybank Memorial, Allied Assault and Horseshoe Bay had controlled with justifiable class and glory for the last few seasons.
Fortunately for the Sim, they hold the Breeders Bowl Mile no matter who happens to have the spotlight in their crosshairs at the moment. And that’s allowed for some sparkling performances to steal their own thunder:
- In 1999, Foggy A.P. threw down the gauntlet with a dominant five-length win in the inaugural Mile, in a time of 1:33 4/5 that would stand as a stakes record for four years.
- In 2002, a legend began when Storm Dog became the first filly to capture the Mile, when she equaled the stakes record in her first race against males. And like the mighty Miesque in the real world of racing, she would go back-to-back as a Mile champion in 2003, this time lowering the stakes record to 1:33 2/5. She still holds the unofficial honor of having the highest speed figure ever in the Mile, at 125 (set in her record-breaking season). That 125.251 speed figure is not only the highest speed figure by a filly in Breeders Bowl history, it is third-best of all time, behind the 1-2 finishers in the 2004 BB Sprint, King Of The Cats and Bianconi Mambo. With speed figures rarely hitting such heights anymore in general, it is entirely possible that this record could stand for many years to come, cementing her BB performance of 2003 as one of the all-time finest. That’s explanation enough of why she was one of the initial Sim Hall of Fame inductees in 2005.
- In 2007, Storm Dog’s stakes record finally bit the dust, when another filly, Culinary Cutie, scored an easy wire-to-wire victory in 1:33 1/5. She is just the second filly to have won this race in nine previous runnings.
This year’s BB Mile has exactly zero runners who appeared in the Mile from last year; additionally, only one entrant has run in a Breeders Bowl race before, that one being last year’s Juvenile Turf Filly winner Miesque’s Gold. This is a symbol of a division completely in flux, in between golden ages and awaiting the arrival of the next batch of stars to stake their claims to history and spark some seriously competitive rivalries like the previous Golden Age. And this may be the place to create just such a feeling.
The top four three-year-old turf milers in training are here. Yasutora is the rarest critter of the Sim, a three-time graded winner ranked first in the division who also happens to be…bred in Colorado? Yes, indeed. Banner was only bred in Ireland, so he’ll have to try harder, right? Not really—he may have had an average spring, but he had, one might say, a banner summer and fall, complete with a Grade I win versus older horses. Hoarfrost Hill won a Grade I to start the year and was second at this summer’s Equinics, and even if his form has tailed off slightly in recent weeks, he also has been running at longer distances since July and faces his elders for the first time here. And Stormin Blues only has a single Grade I win in his career, but when that Grade I comes at Equinics, and he duplicates the form in his next graded start to decisively prove it wasn’t a fluke, it allows him to enjoy a certain level of respect.
Even the fillies aren’t afraid to try the fellas in open company. Miesque’s Gold is the top-ranked three-year-old filly looking to rediscover the form that earned her last fall’s Juvenile Turf Filly title. Northern Pulp tops the older fillies in this division, and she spent the first half of the year on top of her game against other older fillies, but after a string of tough races against her own gender, she’s looking to rebound in a tough field of both veteran older males and tough three-year-old colts. And what of the older horses? Basketball Jones, it could be said, with three graded wins in a row coming into the race, “hasn’t needed someone to set a pick for him at the free-throw line of life” (which may or may not be the only Cheech & Chong reference to come regarding the top older miler). He’s had some of the finest races in all of the Sim in 2008, and is the morning line co-favorite with Otto Vasher, a four-time graded winner this year whose recent form could use a slight boost. Is this the rivalry the turf division is hoping to generate, and in the Mile no less? The race reminds me of a junk drawer with a lot of cables and wires in it: there are a lot of storylines all tangled up within one another in one of the more underrated of Breeders Bowl races, the $2,000,000 Grade I Breeders Bowl Mile. At long last, here’s the field.
Make Me Blush [Belong To Me-Erjaniya, by Gone West, trained by tripwire for Given Stables: Fire and Blood]
In a lengthy conversation with his trainer this week, it was discovered that this colt “took me a long time to figure out. He was winless in his first three routes, so I went back to sprints and as a three-year-old he ran second in a Grade I going six furlongs on the turf. At that point I thought I might have a BB Turf Sprint horse.” This colt didn’t seem to respond too much to short sprints, so it was determined that marathons were worth a try. “Surprise, surprise, he opened up by nine lengths in the stretch and turned the race into a runaway. A few races later he ran a 114 going a mile and a quarter, so I kept him at that distance for a while.” But that path also seemed to be middling rather than overly successful, as he won an allowance and was stakes-placed, but without a wow factor. Since sprints weren’t successful, and marathons were a bit iffy, the only thing left to be tried was the mile. The result? “I finally figured him out! He’s run great in three subsequent graded races from eight to nine furlongs and earned his way into the Breeders’ Bowl. He’ll be near the lead and hopefully will have the stamina to stay there for the stretch run.” Is Given correct? Well, with the nine-furlong win in the I Love Freckles last out, he was an effective stalker and took over as the rider pleased. But that field of four-year-olds, while talented enough, seem to be a cut below what he’ll be facing here at perhaps a more optimal distance for him. The Fourstarnick two back may be more reflective of what he can do here on the front end: he opened up with a three and a half-length lead by the stretch call, but wilted under the late charge and just gave way late. Even the Turf Invaders three back, in which he was an honest and credible second after stalking a fast pace, was a solid effort that gave him a competitive boost, as well as equaled his career-high speed figure of 114. The decision to go to the lead and hope to hang on is usually a fair one to try in a race like this, if you’ve got the speed. Here, it’s a little questionable because one may be a bit less than convinced that this colt is the fastest front-runner here. With Sardini, Mr. Inconspicuous and Severe Warning capable of a strong turn of foot, he may not be alone on the front end. He’s a sensible play if you’re a wagering person, because he’s got the figures on paper to keep him competitive with this bunch, and his jockey has been known to tear up the New York circuit most years, with a reasonable amount of tactical speed thrown in for good measure. The idea of turning him back from a mile and an eighth to a mile worked as recently as last year in this race, and the distance finally seems like a good fit for him. Nevertheless, despite a couple of graded-placed affairs in his career along with that first and only graded win last out, he does lack seasoning at a Grade I level. And he battles history: the only horse to have won this race with just one graded victory in his career prior to winning this race was Mizzen Dizzie back in 2005, who also turned out to be a solid speed horse winning on the lead. Experience counts, and the lack of graded attempts to date—four in 22 starts—works against him.
Banner [Danehill Dancer(IRE)-Tin Soldier, by Kingmambo, trained by 2tohold for More Evil Than The Evil Empire!]
As a spokesperson for the super stables, Whirlwind is rarely at a loss for either words or candor. “He (Banner) took off once we put him on the lawn and rarely disappoints. He has only been off the board twice in 12 turf races, he has already beaten older horses, he’s well rested and sharp. I would expect him to stalk the pace and start to make his move after a half mile, and if he is near the front as they hit the stretch he will be very dangerous near the wire. We were 3rd in this race last year with the filly Torch The Flame and Banner is coming to this race in perfect form.” For reasons that should become readily apparent a little later, the qualifier in that statement should be “almost perfect form”. But even if Banner hasn’t quite hit his peak like Basketball Jones and his three graded wins in a row entering this Mile contest, there’s no denying that this colt has been very strong as summer has turned to fall, to the point of being a challenge to the top grass colts in his crop of three-year-olds. He faces the same historical trend as Make Me Blush, with just one graded win prior to this BB Mile. But that one win was a lollapalooza, a victory over older horses in the Maudlin Cup in which he sat chilly, took over with a half-mile remaining, and won with something left. (This year’s Maudlin Cup may also be famous for being the highest profile race, for the first time in over a year, in which perennial loser George W. Loser managed to finish ahead of another horse—even if he was distanced at the time.) It was a breakthrough performance in a summer of near-misses; while he captured a restricted Smackdown race which managed to feature some outstanding three-year-old milers, he was a furiously-closing second in the Equinics behind Stormin Blues three back, and last time out, returning to colts his own age, he found himself sitting a little too chilly on a soggy turf course in the Mospe Cup, where he ran a rather underwhelming second to Deduction over a course he never seemed to take to. But he’s back on firmer ground here, and while one might think he could run with the early leaders, his tactical speed is a particularly strong asset to have in a field with some strong speed inside of it. If the race unfolds like Whirlwind seems to think it should, he will definitely be in the mix. His speed figures sit very competitively among this strong field, and he’s certain to relish the return to a firm course. If there’s a horse here suited to use the Mile to win only his second graded race of his career, it’s this well-seasoned three-year-old, though he needs to still bounce a little higher with his speed figures, as even with a top figure of 113, this most successful son of an H-graded mare is running about four or five points lower than the most successful of his elders. He’s poised to buck history in one sense should he win here: though Foggy A.P. won his BB Mile in just his ninth career start, it was at the beginning of the Sim’s history, and he was 6 at the time. Both fillies to win the Mile, Storm Dog and Culinary Cutie, won in their sixteenth career start. If Banner, Stormin Blues or Yasutora, three-year-old colts all and all with fourteen starts to date, win this edition of the Mile, they will have done so in the shortest period of time since Foggy A.P.’s win, and they’ll have done the trick in the shortest amount of time for a three-year-old.
Hoarfrost Hill [Danehill Dancer(IRE) x Fappiano, trained by confessor for Given Stables: Fire and Blood]
Given’s three-year-old entry is a game colt whose recent tests have come at longer routes for the year, and he makes his debut against older horses in this premium spot. Turning back to a mile off a string of successes going nine furlongs and longer in recent times, Given believes the time is right to cut back: “His last race was a failed attempt at ten furlongs. So despite the fact that his SFs haven’t been huge of late compared with some of his competition, he could have hidden form at a mile, since that may be his best distance and he hasn’t seen it in six months.” It’s certainly a sound strategy, one with a certain sense of deja vu, since he began his string of early successes at 2 and this winter at 3 with a mile and a sixteenth win in a listed stakes at Nevada last fall. “He was a very nice juvenile with second-place finishes in both the Smackdown and a Grade I,” Given stated, “leading me to think he was a top 2000 Guineas contender. Indeed, he backed that confidence up with a Grade I win at a mile in January.” That win in the Fainting Goat Nightmare Stakes was impressive enough to keep the 2000 Guineas in sight, but despite being successful in a pair of subsequent listed stakes, the colt—who, Given allowed, “has run some huge races and had some stinkers thrown in”—didn’t fire against tough Grade I foes in that classic, despite being “perfectly prepped” for the race. “He threw in an inexplicably bad race. I then freshened him up and sent him to the farm for ten weeks. I brought him back in a nine-furlong stakes which he won showing a lot of heart, and then ran a monster second in the Equinics at 9.5f with a career best 107 speed figure.” Indeed, the two-month layoff made him hungry to run again, and following the break, he won that Denmark stakes stretching out, and followed up with his equinics run, which found him opening up a five-length lead before getting reeled back to the pack and finishing a tired but game second. With a Grade II flop last out, it’s back to a mile, and it certainly seems like it is to this colt’s advantage to turn back. He’s got speed and can go to the front, but usually seems better served by using his speed tactically. There’s too much speed here, and they go fast, so rating in a judicious fashion might work more to his strength. There seems little doubt that the distance is ideal for him, but what is less than ideal are his speed figures, which have lacked polish this year. The game Equinics run got him that 107, but it’s 11 points lower than the highest figure in the field, and even with a return to an optimal distance, he may need to finally crack the 110 barrier to get in the picture. With his fifteen starts, he’s still got a lot of road left to travel in his career, but barring a surprising burst of energy like his Equinics effort, it might be another start or two before he may see the returns his two- and early three-year-old campaigns were promising at this level and distance.
Northern Pulp [Pulpit x Northern Dancer, trained by theogbarn for Robsscoobi Stables]
This filly, whose connections were unavailable for comment at press time, is the top older filly router in the Sim today. She comes about her abilities honestly, starting out as a two-year-old maiden who was average on dirt in 2005, and turning into a phenom on the grass shortly thereafter at 3. At one point between the summer of 2006 and the spring of 2007, she had won seven races in a row, including six stakes, and included in those stakes were a Grade II and a Grade III, all of them at middle distances. She would hit her first Grade I win by the end of last year, and this year she started with a bang by winning three of her first four starts, including the Grade II Adelaide Mile and the Grade I Sexy Muffins. But the streak came to a screeching halt in the last four months. First she got beat by the talented filly Theory Of Love (I love being able to briefly namedrop one of my own for once in a major BTB article) in the Grade II Independence Day, and then came an uncharacteristic fourth-place showing in the Equinics filly-and-mare mile and an equally puzzling fourth last time in the Grade I Queen Ascot. Her presence here is designed to shake things up for the division leader, as she’s never faced colts before in her 33 starts. She’s a definite mid-pack runner, preferring to lay off the front end and make a move late. She merits respect for all she has accomplished in the last three years, to be sure, and her tactics might be ideally suited to a race such as this because of all the speed and because of history: the largest deficit overcome in this race came in the first running and Foggy A.P., who made up an eleven-length deficit in short order in 1999. Every other race has either been a gate-to-wire speed job or a moderate deficit being made up, of no more than eight lengths. With a lot of speed here and not really a heavy presence of deep closers in this field, her tactics possibly fit the profile of a race winner. But the speed figures recently have lacked competitiveness, falling up to 15 points behind what a winner of this race this year might have to run. The lack of a start against males prior to a start in the Mile did not stop Culinary Cutie last year from winning, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to have one test of the testosterone-fueled waters before the BB card comes about. Recent form, however, is the more likely foe she’ll need to overcome for a best shot here. As her last races were rather unimpressive by her standards, it may be asking a lot to hope she can turn her form around in the Breeders Bowl facing colts for the first time.
(It is a shame within the Breeders Bowl/Breeders Cup that there is no Turf Mile race for fillies and mares, as asking a filly to choose between a pair of distances it may not be suited for, or asking one to run against colts when it might not be suited to succeed, just to run on racing’s biggest day does not seem particularly fair or just. But then, no one ever said racing was particularly fair or just, anyway. Just sayin’.)
Stormin Blues [Bernardini-Hold On Loosely, by Storm Cat, trained by desperado2 for Desperado Stables]
Another of the three-year-old colts, another three-year-old colt with 14 starts and seeking to become the freshest face to win the Mile in 9 years, this colt has the advantage of a recent big win in the Equinics. Based on that, Rob/Desp has cause for cautious optimism. “I am very hopeful of his chances. The only race I really had him cranked up for on a dry track was the Equnics. All of the other races were either on odd rest patterns or on the slop. I would have liked him to win the prep, but I think he will make a great show of himself. It is a huge honor to be in this particular race, one of the top races in the Sim.” The races he cites are a couple of pretty fair efforts on soft ground in stakes races. Last time out he was second in the Jockey Club Classic against some solid Grade II foes his own age, and in the other off-track race, he captured a stakes at Longchamp in the spring. Not bad for soft grass or self-described oddities in his racing pattern. The distance certainly suits him here, and he seems to get a little lift when he returns to firm turf after time spent running over wet ground. This does mark his first try against older horses, but the return to solid ground and the experience gleaned from winning the Equinics over three of his foes in this field gives him a leg up. The 113 earned from Equinics keeps him in the mix as well, and his late kick, while far from being the most popular method of winning this race in the past, could be potent enough for him to surprise a tough field that may get softened up before long on the lead. The knock on him might be that 113, however, because there’s a lack of other speed figures that pop so high.
Mr. Inconspicuous [Aptitude-Bring Me Joy, by Forty Niner, trained by foxon4 for Foxon Stables]
Can Inky, as Foxon calls him, dinka do? “Inky is a stable favorite. He always gives it a go, even when overmatched as he is here. I considered running him in the sprint but he seems most effective over a mile. He’ll hopefully drop in just off the pace and run his race and a finish in the top three would be a fantastic result for us.” Despite a rather, if you’ll forgive me, bearish view of his horse, there’s a bit to like about him. This is his tenth graded race in a row, and that stretch has produced a pair of wins, a second, and three third-place finishes. That’s pretty consistent, and it proves that he is nothing if not battle-tested. He went alone on the lead to win the Utah BB Mile last time, and is one of those horses with enough early speed to make things very interesting for the other speed types. With his expected role assumed to be tactical, it remains to be seen if he’ll hold enough in reserve to make a middle move to the front end. He was fourth behind Banner in the Maudlin Cup two back, and led into the stretch of the Equinics where he gave way to Basketball Jones and wound up third. He hasn’t been dodging the best of the division this year, and has acquitted himself very nicely with these. If there’s a reason to doubt his abilities in this spot, it is in the speed figures; though he earned a 113 in Utah and has a career best of 114 when falling to Otto Vasher in the Grade II Sydney Mile, the rest of his speed figures in his last nine graded races range from excellent to merely serviceable. With others in this field capable of running a couple of points higher, it’s not unreasonable to expect this talented colt will have to up his game on the big stage to maintain a competitive run. In the end, Foxon is back to being somewhat bullish on his colt’s chances: “I’m sure he deserves his shot at a big prize like this. Fingers crossed all goes well.” And if he can run back to his win in the Rising Sun earlier this spring, where going seven furlongs he held some speed in reserve and gutted out a nose win on the line, all may be headed in the general vicinity of well.
Yasutora [Eckelson-The Seventh One, by Septieme Ciel, trained by daedalus for Ace Stables – Ireland Division]
There’s no need to bleach the facts: Yasutora may be the most successful Colorado-bred horse, real or imagined, in the history of the world. He closed his way earlier in his three-year-old campaign to three graded wins, topping off with wins in the Grade I 2000 Guineas and the Grade I St. James Tavern, from well off the pace. Those wins have propelled him to #1 for all grass-racing three-year-olds. But as Ace will tell you first-hand, and as Yasutora’s last couple of outings suggest, getting to the top is the easy part. Staying there? Not so much. “Yasu’s last two runs have been (ugly). Granted, last time out can be attributed to the yielding surface. He wanted no part of it whatsoever. The Canada Mile I blame solely on the jockey. It was a beautiful day and the jock’s head was on the golf course instead of in the race where it should have been.” The Mospe Cup last out was respectable, but the wet ground did probably hinder the horse. But in that Canada Mile debut against older horses two back, there was no spark at all: he dropped back, and stayed there. The Equinics three back, the last quality start, should give Ace and others hope about this one’s chances, as he fell eleven lengths off the lead with a half-mile left, and closed staunchly to within a length and a half of eventual winner Stormin Blues. If the pace is hot early on and contested, there’s a good chance the planets may align for another strong late effort, and coming back to a firm grass course from a soggy one, his performance in this spot should be much like the Yasu of the springtime (which sounds like the name of some Japanese anime or a Kurosawa film). Yet Ace remains highly conflicted. “He’s been training well and is in top shape and not overraced…but there are two things that scare me about this race. One is California … it’s a strange track. My horses always run differently there than they do elsewhere. Why? I don’t know. But I’m cursed there.” He’ll be coming late over a California track that might be welcoming to closers while still leaning towards speed, so how the pace scenario shakes out should help decipher his chances. And then, there’s the other elephant in the room. “Basketball Jones. ‘Nuff said.” Indeed, while this colt got a 111 for a very game Equinics run, there’s still a sizable gap between his 111 and Basketball Jones’s two 118 speed figures from earlier this year. If he’s going to rebound on terra firmer here, he may have to bounce high to match up as well.
Basketball Jones [Smarty Jones-Upper Crust, by Seattle Slew, trained by guyinchlt for Ell1919 Racing Stables – Tr. Fabman]
He may be so good that he could Tyrone Shoelaces (and I swear that is the last crack I will derive from the Cheech & Chong “song” of the same name from 1973). But make no mistake: this horse is good under any circumstances. He rides a three-race winning streak in the Mile, and the last horse to have a win streak near as long prior to a Mile win was La Groom’s Wood in 2004, who had won five in a row before taking the Mile, and that included a pair of graded wins. This one has that streak beat for quality: he won the Grade II Posh Purse, The Grade I Canada Mile and the Equinics turf mile for older horses in just three races since August. And it’s not even that these wins came in graded company, but it’s the style and dominance with which he earned them. Each race found him dropping back in the pack for a half-mile before unleashing a furious late run, and that strong closing kick allowed him to win those three outings by a combined six and a quarter-lengths. Fabman is his trainer, but for all the confidence his horse has exhibited on the track, the talk on the shedrow sounded like it was coming from the trainer of a 20-1 shot: “Hopefully it’s an exciting week coming up. I’m pretty nervous about it. Jonesy was always a decent horse but he started showing flashes of what was to come last November, although, what he has done this year, I never saw that coming. He’s always sharp and ready to race. This week is no exception. I just hope he has one more big run in him.” There’s some concern about a bounce back to normal, but after his recent Posh Purse success, which mirrored the Canada Mile in that he dropped back by about eight lengths, and stormed home to win going away, Fab hasn’t been terribly concerned about the form dropping off so sharply. “In his last start,” he said, “I really wasn’t too concerned about where he would finish. I just didn’t want him to sit for seven weeks before the Breeders Bowl and if he bounced off The Canada Mile, so be it. I just wanted to keep him tight and come back healthy, which he did. Other than that, he has done just about everything asked this year with the exception of the Smackdown race that seemed to be out of his range and he never fired that day.” Indeed, that Smackdown start seems now like just a weird aberration, as he dropped back and never got the urge to close from the rear as he loves to do. But the ten-furlong race is also outside his capabilities, as the pedigree (a son of Elusive Quality, even if it was Smarty Jones, is more likely to have preferences of less ground to cover) hinted at just a little bit. The deep closing run, and the speed figures that stand out as the most consistent and the highest of the field, earn him co-favoritism at 5-1 on the morning line, but no matter the end result, Fab’s sticking to his plans. “Win, lose, or draw, Jonesy will get a vacation of this start until next year.” For those who prefer to look ahead, though, Fab would like the Sim to know that, “By the way, Basketball Jones has a full sister called Legend Of Jones that won her first MSW start easily on September 27 in California and looks like she may be a nice one, as well.” You’ve been warned. And you’ve also been warned about how good this horse has been this year. The numbers do not lie, and neither do results, and this horse, if he gets the same kind of pace set-up he has enjoyed in the last three starts, where one horse (Severe Warning, in each of the last two starts) gets loose and then gets tired, or a consortium of horses teams up to go out swiftly, it opens the door for this strong stretch runner. If he’s geared up to even three-quarters of his recent abilities, he’s going to be potent in this race. And history says the Posh Purse is a boon to his chances: La Groom’s Wood used a win in that race in 2004 to his Mile win, and Mizzen Dizzie won the Mile in 2005 two starts after he had run second in the ’05 Posh Purse.
Sardini [Bernardini x Sadler’s Wells, trained by punter41 for Phantom Pharms]
Sardini has had a rather schizophrenic year. He started off as a dirt threat on the Triple Crown trail, and indeed won last year’s Grade I Movieland Futurity but switched full-time to the grass after he couldn’t capitalize on the dirt success to make the Bluegrass Derby field. With the surface switch, however, he moved from a forgotten character in the three-year-old colt ranks into the front lines on the turf. He got beat a head in the Grade III Roy Rogers in his turf debut, then solidified his credentials by running third in the Grade II Bean Sprout before finally crashing through to grass success in winning the Grade II Tette Mile in late June. His lack of grass experience caught up with him in the Equinics mile for three-year-olds, but he rebounded nicely after a two-month break with a win in the Grade II Coalmine Mile Cup on the lead the whole way. He’s not a particularly speedy colt, especially compared to others who also prefer to be in front in the early going that are in the race, but his tactical speed does fit well here, though debuting against older horses here doesn’t figure to be like making his grass debut earlier this spring. His Tette Mile breakthrough crashed over the 110 speed figure barrier, and the Coalmine Mile figure of 111 showed it wasn’t a fluke at this higher competitive level. His connections were unavailable for comment this week, but they have to be proud their horse has found a second act after the Derby hopes went by the wayside. Still, the lack of overall grass experience flies in the face of historical trends, as no horse has ever won the Mile with five grass starts or less. He’s still developing as a turf horse, which is why this is likely just the beginning of a long, productive run on the lawn for this well-bred colt. His figures are still a cut below, but improving, and he’s proven he can run in graded-stakes company, and the tactics should keep him in the mix for much of the way, but until he can settle the issue of turf experience (particularly against his elders), there’s a certain wariness about him.
Irish Ranger [Aragorn(IRE) x Sadler’s Wells, trained by dancards for Infinity Farms]
His affable, proud owner indicated the Mile was not the first choice for this three-year-old. “I debated entering him—it will be his first time against older, and (the race is) probably too short for him, but he didn’t have enough points to get into the (Breeders Bowl Turf) where he might have more of a chance. But he’s won 7 out of his last 8 races and popped a career high 111 speed figure in the Grade III race last time out.” That Grade III race, a win in the mile and a quarter Saint Ledge, marked his first speed figure over 110, and came at a most heartening time for this talented colt. He has indeed won seven of his last eight, and the numbers have improved the more he has stretched out, so a future in the marathon division, or even just on the ten-furlong side of the classic division, seems to be a strong bet down the road. What about the mile, though? His best speed figure in that pocket between a mile and a mile and a sixteenth has only been an 87, and even if he hasn’t run in a traditional mile since last December, the fact that the performances get better as the distances increase indicate that even with improving form, he just might not be up to the task, a fact his owner concedes. Still, according to Dan, “He won the Equinics, so I think he deserves a shot here. He drew the same jock as the one who rode him to that Equinics win so maybe lightning will strike twice. I followed the same time off leading into the Equinics race—six weeks—so he really should be well rested and ready for this one.” Nevertheless, it’s probably not enough ground for him to drop into his usual mode of closing from the rear of the pack, and the fact that the triple-digit figures have been slow in coming more frequently indicates his best running is still ahead of him…by maybe another two or three furlongs.
Otto Vasher [Seeking The Gold x Unfuwain, trained by baracoon for Pierchinski Stables]
His connections have been unavailable for comment, but a look at the past performances indicates that they likely believe their horse is the closest rival to Basketball Jones. He’s the other 5-1 co-favorite with that horse, but where Basketball Jones seems to be doing his best running in the weeks leading up to the race, Otto Vasher may have peaked just a little too soon. He started off the year with a five-race win streak, with an average speed figure of just over 115 in those five races. These races included the Sydney and Tally Ho Miles, both graded affairs run this spring over soft courses. And he also captured June’s Queen Sam and August’s Fried Rice, both Grade II stakes races. But the form did a quick reversal after August, and he enters this race on a two-race skid; while he flat-out bombed in the Violin Mile two back finishing seventh, he was a reasonably game second in a listed event in China last out, yet both of his last two starts yielded speed figures that were below where they had been all year long. He’s still a major winner to be respected, with a preferred running style, which like Basketball Jones involved a strong stretch kick from the rear of a field to the front, that fits comfortably alongside the early speed types. But he and his co-favorite in this race seem to be going in different directions, and that is a note of concern. The history books have a tendency also to worry about location, location, location, for the final prep race for the Mile: the last overseas shipper to win the Mile when coming from Europe, Asia or Australia was Storm Dog in 2002. That’s a fact that should be of some concern for not just Otto, but eight of the other horses in the field. Considering the form reversal, though, it may be the least of this classy horse’s concerns. The speed figures and running style make him fit, and he has back class available from his turf sprinter days, but recent form has been the name of the game in the Mile, and no horse has ever finished worse than fourth in their final prep for the Mile and won the race. Otto doesn’t fit that profile, but it shows you have to be on your game at the right time, and that’s the type of thing that can trump all the 110+ figures in the world. It remains to be seen if he can overcome the recent clunkers and run back to his springtime form.
Severe Warning [Theatrical(IRE) x Alydar, trained by fairhaven5 for THE EVIL EMPIRE]
Ryan’s a gamer. So’s his horse. “(Severe Warning)’s been very versatile in his career, winning a few Grade I’s on turf at ten furlongs and also placing in last year’s New Yorker. A few starts back I dropped him to a mile to see how he’d respond, and he ran a game second to the probable favorite.” I believe this horse is the fastest speed horse in the field, and that he will likely be the one to scrape and claw for the lead against a lot of tacticians who love to go out winging. He’s managed to get the lead a number of times in 2008, and can open up when he does—when he won the NY Island Cap in June, he opened up by more than nine lengths and still held on to win that mile and a quarter race. But it’s one thing to get a strong early lead without a challenge, and something else to get it while under pressure. He’ll face pressure in this spot, and though he is fast, he’s not been quite as good this year at closing the deal. He was fifth in the Posh Purse last out after leading throughout, and second in the Canada Mile after opening up by four and a half-lengths. His speed has held up better when running at distances beyond ten furlongs, as his third in the New Yorker and win in the NY Island Cap show. His speed figures have popped nicely into serious contention among these horses in 2008, with a 116 in the Canada Mile and a 113 in the NY Island. But in order to get the win, he needs to get the lead by himself, and then finish them off once and for all, an idea Ryan acknowledges as a factor in his game plan. “I expect to be on the lead, so it will come down to whether or not my guy can hold them off until the wire. If he doesn’t get the lead, he’s probably done.” The return to a mile from longer routes has taken route and shown its effectiveness in the speed figures, but using your horse’s one dimension to get a victory only seems to be successful when you’re certain of not getting battered going to the lead alone, and when there isn’t a potent deep threat capable of chasing you down. He’s fast, but if he can’t last on his own, there’s not much else that can be done. I suspect he will get his wish, but not without a fight. Will that fight take him down, and who will nab him if it does? Ryan thinks he knows: “Unless Basketball Jones bounces a good bit, we’re all running for second.”
Senor Anzio [E Dubai x El Gran Senor, trained by elranchoti for Seveii Stables]
The last time Seveii has been in this spot, it was in the days of his Hall of Famer Duke Ali. “I haven’t had a horse in the Breeders Bowl since Duke Ali, many years back, and this is my first Grade 1 winner since the Duke. It’s exciting to be back in the BB with a good chance.” And it’s a chance that came from the auction pool, where Dan says he picked this colt up for “less than $100,000.” The records are a little bit fuzzy to me, but depending on your interpretation, the only Mile winner to change owners before winning the Mile may have been Enough Knock, whose owner may have been the almighty computer until March 1999, when he arrived in the barn that trained him to 2001’s Mile victory. Be that as it may, under new management he went from just being a maiden winner in seven starts to being a Grade I winner in the next 21 races. He won the Jack The Man two back for that Grade I win, and also captured the High Lady Cup earlier in the summer. He’s another deep closer, but even though the speed figures are exceptional, peaking at 117 when he was second in this spring’s Dr. Reuben Garr Memorial, his speed figures since May have been all over the place, from a high of 115 down to a 98. He needs more consistency, something that his seventh last out in the Canada Mile doesn’t help to ease. Still, Dan’s pretty revved up: “It took me a while to figure out that he was best at a mile, but once I did, he really improved. He’s a one-run, come from the clouds closer, and it looks like he’s have an honest pace to run at. His last effort was a poor one, but he’s had a good period of freshening, and he’s sharp.” He’s had seven weeks off to prepare for this, an almost unheard-of strategy in this race, where the longest gap between a last prep race and a win in the Mile was five weeks, set in 2002 with Storm Dog and subsequently equaled by La Groom’s Wood in 2004 and Culinary Cutie last year. He should love the distance and how the pace sets up for him, but the inconsistencies and the long rest break raise some questions about his readiness for this race. He should be there when the hammer drops for the closers, but though his closing kick is good, it does pale just a little bit to a couple of other veterans. He may need the race, frankly, but going forward he is a solid performer who should continue to pay high dividends for his connections.
Miesque’s Gold [Miesque’s Approval-Bride’s Song, by Unbridled’s Song, trained by dabears for Smokeglack Stables]
There has been a lot of talk this week about horses who enter a big race such as the Breeders Bowl just because they qualify on points, as opposed to qualifying on good form. The message board dialogue has simmered all week on that count, but one person who acknowledged the debate, and entered regardless, was Smokeglack. He allows this filly was “one of those things that I probably should have skipped the race, but she has the points to get in, so she’s going. She is only Ready To Go, having come up Sharp last week—ugh.” What is in her favor is being particularly battle-ready for this day of champions, as she won last year’s Juvenile Filly Turf at 13-1. She is the only horse in the field to have run in a Breeders Bowl race last year, and as a winner should be aware of the pressure this day can place on a horse. Whether she can counter that pressure depends entirely on her ability to override some middling form against other three-year-old fillies. She was on the verge of being distanced in her last start, the mile and a half Pebbles Cup, but has run fairly well this year when the stakes have been highest. She was second in the Grade I Sun State Cup, third in the Grade I Princess Di Cap against older fillies, and third in a nine-furlong Equinics race, yet she also managed to take a pair of graded races to start the year, including the Grade I Loaded Charger. She’s got ability to run with the best in her division, though even with a résumé filled with a couple of hits and quite a few near-misses, her speed figures have been rather anemic for a filly who captured a Grade I this year. She’s broken 100 five times, but never got much higher than a 106, and in a field where the speed figures have gotten as high as a 118, that’s just not competitive enough in this bunch. Smokeglack is keenly aware of this, also: “I think she really is up against it, but she has always performed well on the biggest days of her career. I am hoping that she can run her best race and take advantage of a tactical trip. Although I am aware that she has to do it against her elders, I am trying to be optimistic in a glass-half-empty situation. Oh well, thats why they run the races.” She’s got some tactical speed, but whether that’s enough to keep up is very much unknown. She ran credibly against the boys at 2, but nothing suggests that her form should be magically reversed at 3. Since she’s turning back to her preferred distance, that could be a major benefit to her chances, and her ability to run with the best at important times is also a valuable tool to have. Still, the outside post is a detriment, her BB-winning jock is on Severe Warning, and at 40-1, she has the dubious honor of being the longest shot on the board in all of this year’s Breeders Bowl races. I do believe she will run better than these odds, but there’s a lot of doubt as to just how much better she can do without much experience facing males at this stage in her career.
This is a very contentious race, as it historically always has been. But there’s no doubt that only a few horses stand clearly ahead of the others, to the point where picking a winner, though always and forever a difficult and risky proposition in the Sim, is made a bit easier because of recent form, speed figures, historical trends, and the competitive abilities to battle successfully within the division on a consistent basis. Here are my selections.
1. Basketball Jones
2. Mr. Inconspicuous
3. Banner
4. Severe Warning
5. Otto Vasher
Good luck to all, and here’s to making this year’s Breeders Bowl the resounding success it deserves to be.