Breeders Bowl Classic

The youngster ran a sweet 114 last out in the LA Derby but couldn’t quite get himself up past winner Demeco. regardless, he’s getting real hot real fast. Has a rare ability to run close up or well back as the race dictates, making him one very good threat here. Biggest problem I see is his lack of experience against elders. It’s rare enough for a 3yo to win this race, but even more difficult for a 3yo to win first out against the best of the previous generation. Still, keep a close eye on Silver Star Road. You just can’t count out a horse that moved from allowance company to G1 events and wins first off, or that has never been off the board in G1 events.

The king of the 3yo division enters of a super-easy ramble of a 10f listed prep. The cool win by 3 1/2 was so easy he didn’t even have to break a sweat, or a 100SP, to do it. Doc’s prize colt is also facing elders for the first time, an automatic play against in most cases, but when you have such a special colt as this you tend to want to toss the rulebook. What has me worried is his tendency to win every other. it’s a pattern he’s stuck to for over a year, and this in theory is the loss race. Still, I love the easy prep, and he’s a surefire winner when on his best game.

Hasn’t won since May, but a second in the Bluegrass Derby showed the colt can handle 10f. Seconds in the G1 Smackdown at a mile and G1 It’s My Birthday sure don’t hurt his cause either. Two major strikes against: first time against elders, and he has yet to break the 110 barrier. On that latter issue he has come close twice, so all is not lost. Very similar pedigree to Ermington Pegusus, so while Mesa hasn’t run 10f since May we all know the bloodlines strongly support another try. Not likely to win but he’s got a good chance at taking home a paycheck.

Despite some rumbling in certain quarters about whether the old boy really belongs here after struggling the last few months, he still made it in via G1 wins last fall with a seconds in G1s this year to shore up his points. The two-time Classic winner goes for an unprecedented third victory, and if it happens he will be retired with just under $20 million in earnings. Time and a long career on top have caught up, however, and he just doesn’t have the tremendous closing kick anymore that led him to set the stakes record last year. Much as I wish he would, he just isn’t going to win. Now hit the board, maybe.

Gracepointe was looking fabulous last year, and to many was the prohibitive favorite in the Breeders Bowl. Alas he faced a super group of horses and ran eight. This year he’s back and in my opinion better than ever. A pair of wins over this rack (in the Movieland Shiny and California Handicap) demonstrate Prayer’s love for the California surface. He’s capable of 115+, and very well rested after a strong third in the G1 George W Loser. Will sit tight a few lengths off the lead for much of the race. Must be respected.

Of all the 3yos in raining these days, this one impresses me the most. Six straight wins, three in allowances and three in grades stakes, two on good tracks and four on fast, and the colt just keeps asking for more challenges. You really have to wonder if he can keep it together for seven in a row, but if he can you’re looking at the strong Eclipse candidate. His superb late-closing running style and massive improvement in his fall 3yo year remind some trainers of the 6 horse, though Demeco is more consistently dominant than the other ever hoped to be. I do wonder if he can break the 3yo curse, and if he can win without having faced elders previously, but if it can be done Demeco will do it.

While SuperPeg clearly isn’t yet over the hill, one cannot deny he is not the same dominating force he was in 2007 when he won six straight graded events. Three graded wins this year, however, still brought him to the big dance for his third appearance. Second as a 3yo and seventh last year, SuperPeg has been very cautiously campaigned and could well return for a fourth Classic attempt next year if his superior speed holds up. He’s been off the track almost two months, so one must wonder of he is truly sharp for this effort. SuperPeg has a sneaky habit of getting in the frame when it counts, however, so watch out for him.

The other old man of the field, Mambo has led a conservative racing career. It does help that he didn’t step onto the track until he a month before his fifth birthday. One wonders what he might have done had he raced at 3 and 4, as the horse was winning graded events within a few months of starting to race. he didn’t have enough points for a start in 2007’s Classic, but eight wins and places in stakes events (several graded ) in the last year have helped him earn entry to the big dance. Mambo enjoys 10f, and is a G1 winner at this distance. despite several tries, however, he has yet to win in California. Sure has the speed, and has beaten some of these horses, but still some questions linger.

He has just three graded wins for the year, but oh my Non Negative is on an extended hot streak. Last time he finished off the board was in 2006. Sure, it helps he went unraced for about eight months last year, but even so this colt is top notch. A super win in the Woodward last out sets him up really nicely for this one, but even so his owner, confident in a board finish at worst, says “he’ll need to run the race of his life” to win. Big concern is the distance. He’s a 10f stakes winner, but in 3 graded attempts has yet to win. Still, a fast and special colt.

After looking at 12 top horses you get to this one and wonder how he made it in. Sure, he’s a G1 winner (at 11f back in May), and sure, he’s got a few graded placings. However his lone 10f attempt in the LA Derby left much to be desired. Trying elders for the first time, and 11 points slower than the fastest of the lot, he’s got a tough road ahead. His trainer commented with extreme candor, “he may split the field that’s about it.” Certainly not an entirely unreasonable entrant but not quite up to this challenge.

San P makes his second Classic appearance after a not-so-good ninth place in the 2006 edition. He didn’t quite earn entry in 2007, but that’s okay. The Super Syndicate took it easy with him and that has paid off handsomely in 2008. Wins in the Razorback as well as the Michael-Strike, plus strong seconds in the Abe Lincoln and Woodward, vaulted San P to the elite of the division. The major negative is the dismal 10f record. Sure, he won a 10f allowance as a 3yo. Sure, he was third in a 10f stake just over two years ago. But in graded company he just has not been able to get the job done. Of course, he hasn’t tried it in 13 months, so could be he’s finally ready to succeed.