Germany’s King Classic
It’s a full field for the ninth running of
Part of the reason the field is full is that three trainers had multiple entries. The Jrogue Stables are responsible for four entries all by itself.
In half the previous King Classics, the winner got her first graded stakes victory. That’s a likely result here with a field that contains only one graded stakes winner.
I’m in a foul mood and not particularly impressed with the field, so I went to the chat room. Kloie always has nice things to say. I found a way to get half my article written:
PP 1 Dead Lois (Victory Gallop x Caerleon x Vive Regent) trained by smoken (Slewsback Stables, 10%) Odds: 11-1, Style: P
timmn: kloie, pull up the
kloie: ok. what’s up?
timmn: what do you think of the first one?
kloie: she’s been in the money a lot lately. oh, I don’t like that her only stakes race was on an off track and she didn’t do well
timmn: that was at a much longer distance. I am more worried about class than the off track. you hardly ever see horse get their first stakes win, much less their first graded win after 38 starts
kloie: hard to disagree with that. we should move on.
PP 2 Titania(KY) (Kingmambo x Cat Thief x A.P. Indy) trained by bagur (Rafa Stables, 16%) Odds: 4-1*, Style: E/P
timmn: here’s the favorite. she’s earned a check in every race since march 1st, but she’s never won against graded company.
kloie: the fields she was facing were much stronger than this, and she absolutely showed she belongs. what does your E/P style mean?
timmn: E is for early, P is for pressing, and S is for sustained runners. E/P means she likes to be near the lead, but doesn’t need it.
kloie: is that what past winners are like?
timmn: actually most of the winners have been from well off the pace. also only one winner in the past five years has been among the top three choices.
kloie: there’s a lot of early runners here. that might hurt her.
PP 3 Spinning Quest(JPN) (
kloie: although she won her last try, she hasn’t run a triple digit speed since last may.
timmn: oh those speed figures! she doesn’t belong in a graded stakes. and when she faces early speed she folds lie an origami crane.
kloie: lol
timmn: that’s not quite true – I just wanted to use that line.
kloie: she is coming off a stakes win.
timmn: owner restricted and a very soft field.
timmn: some say the horses won’t run faster than they need to win. her 90 might not be that bad.
kloie: she ran in a grade 1 that was also owner restricted
timmn: that was a strong field
kloie: she was only out of the money 3 times. once on an off track and the other two were a listed stakes and an equinics
timmn: off track. I forgot.
kloie: things don’t look good for her. I take that back. she might be ok.
timmn: 13-1. you wouldn’t lose your house if you just missed one payment would you?
kloie: but I would blemish my perfect record
PP 4 Buffalo Forge (Sadler’s Wells x Seattle Slew x Cyane) trained by dmckinna (Jrogue Stables, 18%) Odds: 66-1, Style: E/P
timmn: where do you get an unraced sadler’s wells x
kloie: I always like horses with sadler’s well in the pedigree. especially as sire.
timmn: there’s no way this one looks ready for the class jump, but i’d trade just about any horse I have for her even up
kloie: this horse is making a big class jump and doesn’t look ready for it
kloie: lol. gmta
timmn: she was the 15th ranked horse entered, but got in when one was scratched because of the off track
kloie: 18% trainer. nice.
kloie: and only out of the money twice in her career
timmn: i’ll still pass
PP 5 Skidburg(KY) (
kloie: ah, another sadler’s wells x
kloie: she broke her maiden at this distance and has two solid tries on off tracks
timmn: another longshot that deserves respect
kloie: I think this is my favorite of the longshots we’ve looked at so far
timmn: I worry that her style is too close to titania’s, and if this is the style that will win, the favorite is the better horse
kloie: her trainer was going by the book with her, taking her through her conditions. I like that
timmn: mostly by finding smaller and weaker fields than this. she was further back last time than normal. that can’t be good entering a graded stakes.
kloie: I still like her, even though we don’t know how she’ll handle the class.
PP
timmn: a 6 yo. and I was skeptical about a 5 yo looking for a first GW
kloie: it’s never too late to try
timmn: so I can go out for high school quarterback?
kloie: go ahead. I bet you have the same chance of making it as you did then.
timmn:
kloie: she’s coming in off a stakes win with one of the highest speeds in the field last time
timmn: it was a very ordinary field last time. she tried this level once before – a year and a half ago and did nothing
kloie: and the one time she tried this distance was one of her worst.
timmn: the off track doesn’t help her
kloie: it doesn’t hurt her. she runs about the same on wet or dry.
timmn: I was just trying to find something to get excited about. 4-0-0-1 on off tracks doesn’t do it
PP 7 Cox’s Stage (Quiet American x Cox’s Ridge x Stage Door Johnny) trained by shredder1 (Jrogue Stables, 22%) Odds: 10-1, Style: E
timmn: she should add to the early speed. this race is looking like it sets up for a late runner
kloie: do we have any late runners?
timmn: I don’t know. we don’t have access to the PPs yet.
kloie: I know. and I know you’re mad about it
timmn: there’s not much negative to say about this one – it’s just that I’m having a hard time finding something positive
kloie: I am having the same problem. nothing really jumps out.
timmn: she’s the second highest ranked runner in the race. there must be some love we can show her
kloie: well, she’s proven herself in stakes, many others in here haven’t
timmn: she seems to fade
kloie but still ends up in the money
timmn: not many wins this year
PP 8 Minstrel Sea(GER) (Monsun x The Minstrel x Sea-Bird) trained by thefred (Fred & Vienna Stables, 15%) Odds: 11-1, Style: P
timmn: homecoming for this german bred
kloie: but she’s never won here
timmn:one overnight try, and it was terrible. that’s a sign it’s time for graded stakes?
kloie: my schnitzel is cold! what was the waiter thinking?
timmn: meine schnitzel ist auch kalte. volkswagen
kloie: you’re so exotic when you speak german
timmn:
kloie: she does have one of the highest speed figures in her last try
timmn: your glass is never half-empty is it?
kloie: what are you implying?
PP 9 Song Cat (Unbridled’s Song x Exactly Sharp x Storm Cat) trained by be10der2me (Ma Nature TB’s ‘Organic & Homegrown’, 9%) Odds: 12-1, Style: E
kloie: she hasn’t won in over a year
timmn: let’s list the horses we know that win their first graded stakes in their 40th start when they are 6 yo. you go first.
kloie: a game? I love games…ok..um…errr…well, what about that one who, no, nevermind
timmn: she is averaging nearly $4500 in earnings per start, but then so is my Studebaker
timmn: we said we were looking for a late charging horse. How about Song Cat?
kloie: Hardly. the last time she was late-charging was at the checkout line when Target was closing
timmn: I like that one
kloie: thank you. next.
PP 10 High Cry(IRE) (Street Cry x Rahy x
timmn:We have one
kloie: what?? could it be?
timmn: a late runner
kloie: but she does have one of the lowest speeds last time out
timmn: and she beat a very weak field in that allowance win
kloie: (I have kidnapped optimist kloie – I seem to only have negative things to say)
timmn: and her lone wet start was terrible
timmn: do we need to start over, and I can play the optimist. I’m not good at it
kloie: we’re on horse 10. we can’t start over
kloie: but that off track was turf
timmn: but it was pretty bad. it was a year and a half ago and, wait for it…..there. she just now finished.
kloie: be nice. say something nice
timmn: I hear her trainer was once kind to a homeless kitten.
kloie: who’s the trainer? oh, Ace! I like aly.
PP 11 Western Idol(AUS) (Viscount x Rahy x Mr. Prospector) trained by bushmonste (The Big Oil Conglomerate [
timmn: this is a graded stakes on an off track. how does this one like graded stakes, Kloie?
kloie: she enjoys graded stakes so much she wanted to take her time and enjoy every minute of her last graded try.
timmn: and how does she like a wet track?
kloie: how do you think she liked it? it damaged her pedicure! she had to walk slowly not to completely ruin it.
timmn: but at least she will love to see the pace battle ahead of her break down so she can come charging from 10 lengths back, right?
kloie: because she has come charging from 10 lengths back, oh, she has never come charging back. in her entire career she has passes 3 horses.
kloie: what have you done to me? I have a reputation of being nice. I hope no one ever hears me talk like this.
PP 12 Mistral(KY) (A.P. Indy x Mr. Prospector x
timmn: this looks promising
kloie: be still my heart. this is her graded debut, but everything says she should be ready for it. she likes the distance, she’s a stakeswinner, and she like to come from behind
timmn: does the race appear to have an early pace that faces multiple challenges?
kloie: from about 13 of the horses
timmn: is she improving?
kloie: there’s a slight drop in speed figures last time, but I’d say she’s improving
timmn: can she handle a wet track?
kloie: she loves a wet track
timmn: and this A.P Indy, Mr. Prospector, and
kloie: lol. I guess you might say so. It’s hard to find anything I don’t like about this horse.
timmn: good kloie returns
PP 13 Erendira Fever(KY) (Stormin Fever x Mill Reef x Mr. Prospector) trained by erenhaack (Otto Haack (
timmn: she beat a very strong field last time
kloie: she hasn’t been out of the money in quite a while
timmn: makes her graded debut
kloie: were any of the past winners of this race making a graded debut?
timmn: yes, four of them
kloie: oh, I like that angle
timmn: her figures are a bit light
kloie: maybe compared to career highs, but compared to last time out figures, she is right in the mix
timmn: and she may get caught in traffic
kloie: I won a btb horse by stormin fever, I think. may all stormin fever horses become GWs!
PP 14 Pye Are Squared(AUS) (Viscount x Rahy x Mr. Prospector) trained by jeffdrew (Big Oil Conglomerate [
timmn: pye’s other horse. a full sister to western idol
kloie: poor western idol. all the boys like this one I bet
kloie: this one has more graded tries than the rest of the field combined I bet
kloie: and two graded wins, one pretty recently
timmn: I’m pretty sure she’s the only graded winner her. clearly the class of the race
kloie: 2 wins in 3 starts on off tracks, too
timmn: the mona lisa field she beat in May was as good a grade 1 field. much stronger than this.
kloie: but spinning quest beat her by several lengths in the equinics.
timmn: and she seldom wins without the early lead.
kloie: I wouldn’t go to
timmn: time to make your picks
Conclusion:
kloie: I guess I am going for the outside post positions today. 12 for the win and 14 and 13 for the place and show
timmn: I am also smitten by mistral. I’ll go 12 / 2 / 4. that’s a trifecta that will make a mortgage payment for you.
kloie: I can’t wait to read your article. when will you write it?
timmn: I think you already know the gist of it.