Coffefields Cup
A huge race is scheduled for this weekend in
1. Creepshow 5-1
Creepshow is a 5-year old who has already amassed over $7 million lifetime. He comes in the race as the second favorite by the oddsmakers. Creepshow mainly has had his success going 9 to 10 furlongs. He has only gone 12 furlongs three times, winning once. His speed has been fantastic, charting over 100 each race (except once) since May, 2007. His only failure during that time span, ironically, was at 12 furlongs. A winner of 16 races in 31 turf starts, he should be considered a contender. However, the distance may play out to be a problem for this shinning star.
2. Divine Strike 28-1
Divine Strike put in an impressive race in the Eastern Bow Challenge, where he mounted a charge from over 10 lengths back to win by 6, in the 10.5 furlong event. Divine has 3 wins in 12 starts and has surpassed the 100-speed plateau twice in his career. He is capable of going the distance, but is making a huge jump to this grade I race, his first graded career race. This 3-year old seems to be outclassed in this field.
3. Imploding 27-1
Like Divine Strike, Imploding has also surpassed the 100-speed level only twice. This turf runner has won 4 of 18 on the grass and comes into the race with a 2-race win streak, both at 13 furlongs. Imploding loves to run on the lead and three of his wins were of the gate to wire variety. He’ll make another effort here to get the lead, but it’s doubtful that he’ll extend his streak in this race. He has only 2 stake races, one was as a maiden and the other was his most recent win. He leaps into the Grade I race and his chances are greatly diminished.
4. Big Day 8-1
Trainer Nobiz deserves a lot of credit here. Last November, Nobiz was claimed for $25k. shortly after switching stables, Trainer Nobiz put Big Day on the turf, and the cash register started to ring. Big Day sports a record of 8-3-2-1 on the lawn, with a huge win in the Pumpkin Learning Bonanza in July, where he scored a career best speed of 115 running 9.5 furlongs. Big Day is trying out the Graded level for the first time and has flashed the speed numbers needed to win this affair. He is running over 12 furlongs for the first time on the grass and that gives me some concern, as he likes to run on the front end and I’m not sold he’ll be hanging on at the end.
5. Lex Luthor 9-1
Another winner of over $7 million comes into the race with 19 wins in 32 starts on the grass. Lex Luthor is a master at the 12 furlong distance, with 9 of his victories coming at this distance. Lex is explosive at the gate and rarely does not get the lead. Lex has had his troubles of late. He hasn’t been to the winners circle in the past 6 races. He has faded off badly in the last quarter of those races. Added to this challenge is that several other horses will be pressing for the lead and that may wear him down.
6. Fappiane 13-1
Fappiane is yet another horse in this field who will be making a bid for the early lead. He has won 4 of 20 turf races, all by wiring the field. His last 5 races were all charted over 100 in speed, however, he has only one career start in a stakes race. (his last outing, a 2nd in the Father Sand Challenge). He makes a huge jump here, but of all the horses over 10-1, this one looks to be the best to pull off an upset.
7. Woody Wells 8-1
A winner of 10 of 30 career turf starts, Woody Wells comes in with a streak of races posting speeds of 99 or over since August of ’07. He will most likely set himself someplace behind the speed rabbits in this field and wait to make a move late in the race. Woody doesn’t have an extremely strong late kick, so he’ll have to keep within a handful of strides in order to win this race. My gut tells me the rabbits may open up to large of a gap for Woody to overcome.
8. Portman’s Perfect 9-1
Portman has just about been Perfect…at least on the turf. In 10 starts, he sports a record of 6-3-1. Portman has won over $2 million in his short career, winning three of his last four outings, all Grade I races, and all at 12 furlongs. His last three races ranged in speeds from 107 to 111. Portman will most likely pace the speed in the race, keeping himself well within striking range. Last time out, he spotted the field 10 lengths and exploded past the half to win by 2. He has the ability to win this and at 9-1, the price offering is very, very good.
9. Elusive Riley 8-1
A horse of some mystery, Elusive Riley, has shown two different racing styles. One of his styles is to lay in the middle of the field and work his way to the front. His other style is to run as the leader, or with the leader, and try to run away. The latter is his better racing form. He has won 3 of 4 starts at 12 furlongs, using the early speedster method. His most recent was a win in the Prospect Proper Memorial, where Elusive ran off to a 6 length victory in a speed of 105. Elusive has won 10 of 24 turf starts, which in itself, is impressive. The concern I have is his graded stakes record. In five starts, he has yet to hit the board. He will find getting the lead a tough chore to do in this race with several other speedsters welcoming the same challenge.
10. Puppet Regime 7-2
Puppet Regime comes into this race with over $4 million in earnings and winning 19 of 36 turf starts. Puppet comes in with a 3 race win streak on the line. All three wins were in Grade I stakes going 10.5 to 11 furlongs. Puppet likes to run in the middle of the field and make a strong and steady close. He’s capable of catching the rabbits and is very consistant in recording speeds in the 100-range. His last two races were posted at 114 and 116. Although he is the favorite in this field there is one thing that bothers me about him…his record going 12 furlongs. In 13 races, he’s only won twice going the mile and a half making that extra furlong seem to be somewhat troublesome.
11. S R Awareness 19-1
S R Awareness seems to be an outsider in this race. Awareness has made the winner’s circle trip on three times in 24 career starts. In a dozen graded race attempts, Awareness has failed to reach the wire first in each attempt. May 2007 was the last time Awareness walked away as the champ. Awareness is yet another one who will be making a bid for the lead, and he has the ability to score a speed of 100+. Awareness has many obstacles to overcome to win the cup here.
12. Borius Phantom 11-1
Back in December, Pedroza claimed Borius Phantom for $40k and the results have paid off. Borius is coming off a nice third in the Bluegrass Cup Turf in a speed of 105. He has the ability to charge hard, as noted in the Quest for Gold II, where he came from 12 back to win by almost 3. He’s moved up several class levels this year and is worth a look.
13. Nattownsfinest 68-1
Nattownsfinest has never posted a speed over 95, and I expect that this race will end up with a speed of about 110. With only two career wins, a maiden race and cheap allowance, Nattownsfinest would be a shocking upset in this race.
14. Gold Doors 14-1
Gold Doors grabs the extreme outside post and is the last of millionaire horses in the field. Gold has won 8 of 30 starts, coming in the money 20 times. Gold has run in eleven graded races without a win. Gold has finished second twice in the graded races, but that was a good year ago. Gold can hit the 100-plateau in speed, but has had his problems, winning once in the past year. Gold Doors will most likely run near the rear of the field, possibly even being the caboose. He can close ground late, but in reality, the field will probably build too large of a lead for him to overcome.
Portman’s Perfect has been hard to falter. He is consistently on the board and has been running extremely well. There are many front runners in this race and Portman is in great form to run them down. Jockey D Evans (28% win) will go for the ride which improves his chances.
Puppet Regime should get a decent trip. Although he has a history of failing to win at 12 furlongs, I think the speed rabbits in this race are catchable, as long as they don’t tire and build a blockade for the late closers. His recent speeds have been hot and shouldn’t be overlooked.
Creepshow departs from the rail and has been posting very good speed numbers. He’ll be running near the rear and making a strong close and although he is going a longer distance, he maybe able to surpass quite a few tiring horses.
As always, good luck to everyone!!!!