California on Turf
The Cherry Limb Stakes feature a rather interesting field of 3yos, the race is wide open with 3 joint favourites at 6/1 odds, the Grade 2 Rating makes it very interesting, and the 9f distance may be a test for some milers and more classic 10f horses, who meet in the middle, but let’s loose no time, and take a look at the Horses:
#1 FRANKLIN TERRACE(IRE) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=142398
18 Races – 5 Wins – 393,775$
The 3yo Montjeu Colt had been flying earlier this year, his 2nd place in the Grade 1 Carribean lead to high hopes, but he had to find out, he can’t handle the classic 12f distance, and failed in the Derby de English, after rebounding nicely and winning an 8f Stakes Race over 8f, he struggled at 10f recently, his lifetime high 102 came 2 back in the Grade 1 Big Red Stakes, but a 4th place there and a 5th place last time out are not, what was expected from the Classic looking colt. He often finds himself in midpack early, and 9f seems to be one of his more favoured distances, but he’ll have to improve to get in the running.
#2 HERE’S TO BEISBOL(IRE) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=140639
13 Races – 2 Wins – 216,800$
One of 3 joint favourites, the Azamour Colt is looking for a win for over a year now, however his lifetime best 107 over 10.5f proofed to be a great speed, he just ran it in a Grade 1 against older horses, so a 4th was all it was good for. Last time out he took the lead entering the stretch in a Grade 2 in Australia, however 2 horses flew by him and a 103 was just good enough for 3rd. Finished 2nd in Stakes Races before, and he showed that 10f may be a bit long for him, so the 9f trip could be to his advantage. Pick him at your own risk, as he’s not found the winner’s circle for a long time.
#3 IDOL WORSHIP(ENG) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=137155
18 Races – 7 Wins – 422,475$
The Shirroco Colt has been a 2yo star, he finished 4th in the Breeders Bowl Turf Juvenile and won a Grade 2 and a Grade 3, but like most 2yo superstars he found out how tough racing is as a 3yo, a 12th Place in the Grade 1 Sidney Derby meant a big step back for him. He was mainly build up through ALW races afterwards, winning 3 races this season, including his last start over 9f on turf, a 103 was a pleasent speed, and shows he heads in here well prepared. But rated on his Graded Races this season it will be another tough day for him racing classy colts.
#4 SKIDDED(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=75967
11 Races – 4 Wins – 274,690$
The Awesome Again Colt struck heavy, when winning the Grade 2 Bean Sprout Turf Cup 3 back, he looks very well bred and showed that on the racecourse, however in his last 2 races he couldn’t progress on his lifetime high of 104, a 102 and a 100 at however longer distances showed his improvement kind of stalled. His last race was a Grade 3 over 9f, and a 5th place is not what will satisfy his connections today, however I hardly see him beat todays field.
#5 SLAMMIN’ G(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138121
21 Races – 6 Wins – 163,871$
The Grand Slam Colt started a new career 4 back, when he was switched to Turf, and he began it in great fashion, winning 2 ALW races at 8 and 8.5f, but then he had to realizem that life on turf also has defeats, his 11th place finish in the Boston Derby was a big setback. Last time out he ran a nice looking 103 over 8.5f, but was failing on the stretch home, and only finsihed 5th, after leading the whole race. He’ll likely aim for the lead again early today, but a fail could likely produce another flop.
#6 SILENT AJDAL(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=141893
16 Races – 5 Wins – 480,800$
The well-rested Sharp Humor colt comes in here with an up and down season, that was on a high last time out, he simply demolished a Grade 3 Field in the St. Ledge Stakes, something unexpected, as his 110 was 9 Rating points better than his previous best of 101, and that also was good for a Graded Win in the Carribean. This top run had been followed by an 8th place in the Derby de English and a 5th in the Harbour City Stakes. But the break in an ALW race seemed to have sparked his confidence and made him romp the Grade 3 in record time.
Needs to proof today it wasn’t a fluke, and he’ll be flying home.
#7 I DONT GIVE A DAN(ENG) 13/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=154324
12 Races – 4 Wins – 116,355$
The Dansili Colt went through a knightmare, on what expected to be his career day, he was simply overmatched in the Equinics Race he took part in, and all connections can be lucky, that the 16th place finish didn’t demoralize him completly. Last time out he won an easy ALW race, setting a 102 pace over 8f. His lifetime best is a 105 over 9f, also in an ALW race. He’s yet to win a Stakes Race, and the step to Grade 2 seems to high here, making him a relative outside shot.
#8 ISGRIMNUR(IRE) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=151789
10 Races – 6 Wins – 185,870$
Another Outside Shot with the bookies, but this Montjeu Colt brings something strange, 2 back he ran the mile in a 110 speed, all the way off his lifetime best before and all other speeds he clocked before. Usually way shy of the 100 mark, he had the race of his life in a Stakes Race in malaysia, and that sparked his connections to enter him in the Grade 2 Jockey Club Classic. It may have been the off-track, or whatever, he finished with a 90 mark in 11th place. So today anything is possible, from 1st to last, no one can be sure, what IsGrimnur colt will show up.
#9 FRIZIONE(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=133981
17 Races – 7 Wins – 235,120$
2 Races back all looked well for the Medaglia d’Oro Colt, he ran a 107 for the 2nd time, back-to-back even, and he finished 2nd in the Boston Derby, so he looked forward to a promising career on Turf. But the Grade 1 Mospe Cup brought him back to earth, in yielding conditions he finished 13th, and don’t even look at the speed number. I’d say forget his last race, I believe this colt can storm to a win today, 9f seem his distance, and a 107 could proof good enough to win. His running style suits well, as he likes to sid in mid-pack, and then explode in the 2nd half of the race, look for him flying home.
#10 PALAZZO(ENG) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=142394
17 Races – 7 Wins – 209,766$
The odds-makers are well with the Medicean Colt, but he is an up and down racer, that finds it tough to compete at a high level all the time. Last time out a 100 was good for a 5th place in the Jockey Club Classics, however in the Boston Derby was only good for 3rd behind today’s runner Frizione. The 105 also was his lifetime high speed, which makes it doubtful to me, he will be there, when it counts today, he had a nice run earlier this season, when winning 2 Stakes races, but his recent outings can only be called average.
#11 WAR GAME(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=139817
17 Races – 3 Wins – 214,800$
The Mr. Greeley Colt has a tendency to finish 2nd in 8 of his 17 Lifetime starts he did that, and in horse Racing the 2nd is sometimes called the 1st Looser, so far so bad. But he really had a way above average last race. In the rain he ran a 109 in illinois, likely the good ground was to his liking, so his connections may not be to happy with the Firm Turf here in California today. Except the breakout last time out, he usually ran around 100 and has his lone win this season from an ALW 2 back. Another joint favourite, I don’t buy, to me he may only look average on Firm Ground, and until he proofs different I see him outside the money today.
#12 METIS(AUS) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=6209
14 Races – 5 Wins – 457,440$
The Redoute’s Choice colt is another horse, that had his breakout 2 back, but comes in today after a severe defeat. Last time out he ran a sub-par 90 in a Grade 2 in Australia over 10f. Before that he finished 2nd in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2, so the question again will be: “ What Metis will show up?” The 9f is his shortest trip since back in february, he only ran on long breaks, and heads in well-rested. His liking of longer distances may come to his advantage, but I’m sceptical about his finishing power over 9f.
I take Frizione to win ahead of anyone, it’s really tough to predict the finish, some horses have had speeds up to 110, but haven’t been able to repeat them, Frizione like many comes in from a tough defeat last time out, but I see him the most likely to rebound today.