Equinics – Northern Dancer Stks 12F Turf
Paris-FR (PAR)
Friday, June 14, 2024 — 3:00:00 PM EST | Race ID : 3304924
| Equinics – Northern Dancer Stakes | |
| Grade I / Group 1 – Sponsored – Purse : $1,500,000 | |
| Restricted to 3 Year Olds and Older | Owner Restricted |
| 12 Furlongs | ~2400 Meters | One Mile and a Half Firm Turf |
| 1 | MARECHAL DAVOUT res: URC | FR | 5M | harasauxerre | K Ledwith | 18 | 7 | 78% | $2,718,985 |
/INTELLO x GOLDEN HORN (GB) x DYNAFORMER ODDS: 7/1
URC is pulling out the big guns for this one! The winner of the GR 1 Sand Castle Turf 12F comes back here after a layoff since March and this is his distance. Has ran in 8 Graded 1 &2 races after his 3 yr old campaign and has 3 GR 1 wins at this distance. Has never drawn from the rail before and shouldn’t hurt as he loves to be just off the pace. Ledwith retains the mount after the Sand Castle win and that can’t hurt either.
| 2 | KNOWN DANGER res: MIDAS | JPN | 5M | unicorn | R Whisper | 19 | 7 | 68% | $5,324,340 |
BRICKS AND MORTAR x KINGMAMBO x DANSILI (GB) ODDS: 9/1
2nd most earnings of horses in here hasn’t seen the winner’s circle in just over a year. But the victory did come in a GR 1 12F NZ Derby and with blistering 120 SP. Supertaffy has been getting this one ready with a quick prep race (4th GR 2 11F race) just over a month ago so sharpnesss shouldn’t be a problem! With reg jock T.Small opting to go to #6 Dr.Painz she has to rely on R. Whisper on the reins so hopefully instructions will be followed. Normally a front runner the # 2 hole will definitely help in this case.
| 3 | BRING ME TO CHURCH res: ASR | IRE | 4M | worldclass3 | S Bachaumont | 13 | 7 | 77% | $1,395,190 |
ST MARK’S BASILICA x SEBRING x SADLER’S WELLS ODDS: 11/1
4th Rank 4 yr old that has won 2 of 3 GR 1 starts in 2024. How ever these are not in 12F races but shouldn’t affect distance as the sire has more than enough to cover this. Indications point to this one being our pacesetter and drawing #3 he has won at this PP. Hard to bet against a ASR horse and 11/1 odds are great value even though running against elder here.
| 4 | TETE OPPROBRE res: EURO | JPN | 4G | racelord5 | B Wu | 14 | 8 | 79% | $545,784 |
HARBINGER x GALILEO (IRE) x RED RANSOM ODDS: 19/1
Has won at this distance (ALW) but has run graded (4th GR 1, 5th GR 3) so will not be star struck. Owner Sabbath has bringing this one along nicely the past year (6 ITM 4 wins) and coming off a STKS win at 13F. Again here a lead pacesetter but with a lot more horses in here than he’s used to, being beside Bring Me The Church will either benefit or run him in to the ground depending on the speed fractions. The bettors morn line have not been kind to him (19/1) and his ALW and STKS record the start of this season should be showing more love even if it was against smaller fields.
| 5 | INFLUENTIAL KING res: HOOSIER | KY | 5G | dpcd4 | C Wyatt | 21 | 5 | 57% | $768,074 |
ENGLISH CHANNEL x KINGMAN x PIVOTAL ODDS: 10/1
First timer at this distance, more of a 10F specialist. But no stranger to Graded races or the winners circle and the best offspring out of mare INFLUENTIAL QUEEN potentially. Jock C Wyatt retains the mount so familiarity will help in that regard and drawing #5 will help stabilize that middle of the pack strategy. Need a good result here as the in his prime window is closing just wonder if the distance will be too much to overcome.
| 6 | DR PAINZ res: ORPHANS | TUR | 4G | dazzler1 | T Small | 17 | 10 | 88% | $260,939 |
DR FONG x GENEROUS (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS ODDS: 15/1
Former EOY VENGEANCE OF PAIN ‘s probably best offspring to date. Owner/Trainer CoolK wisely ran him in a 12F GR3 last time out to see if he can handle the distance where it looks like the off pace strategy and distance was tough to overcome (4th). The former 7500 claimer has been a steal ever since though rattling 7 wins in 10 races since so shows he belongs with the big boys. Plus Jock T.Small must see something here as he decided to bypass regular mount #2 Known Danger for this race.
| 7 | PALLADIUM ROX res: BERC | FR | 4M | gjo6 | H Ross | 18 | 8 | 83% | $321,221 |
WOOTTON BASSETT (GB) x OASIS DREAM (GB) x DUBAI MILLENNIUM ODDS: 28/1
First time Graded runner and a lot better than mom WINDS OF A DREAM even though no stakes win yet although I see that changing in the future! Has the pedigree to go this distance (won an ALW) and than some. The only thing that could shy bettors is the recent race 3 weeks ago hence the higher odds and inexperience. Will be interesting to see if laying back more strategy will be employed here to compensate for the heavy pacesetters speed where this one normally likes to go.
| 8 | YOU HAVE NO CHOICE res: GR SIMSTERS | GB | 6M | given99 | Q Cassell | 20 | 10 | 65% | $7,511,426 |
DUBAWI (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS x DEEP IMPACT ODDS: 6/1
Is the bettors favourite here and will be relied on heavily for that W to set the tone for GR Simsters in the Equinics. Our leading $ earner is no stranger to this distance and GR 1 races. Owner/Trainer Given has been very careful using this one as his last start was 4 months ago (6th in the GR 1 John Scott). Two things stand out for me here 1. He has the highest SPD 121 of everyone and 2. He has been beaten by a couple of others in here in past GR 1 company rather handily. The one silver lining is jock Q. Cassell can be the xfactor needed.
| 9 | DUKE O MANA MOU res: LATINOS DEL MUNDO | SAF | 5M | haack4yodebut | O A Haack | 14 | 8 | 100% | $466,52 |
DUKE OF MARMALADE x ELA-MANA-MOU x NIJINSKY 2ND ODDS: 16/1
Local Champion (SAF/PAR) at 12F and 16F. 14 races and has never been out of the top 3! 4 wins out last 5 races with the non win race being a 3rd in 16F GR 1 AUS CUP. The irony is owner/trainer Haack will even be riding his own horse in this race to ensure a top 3 three finish, talk about dedication! With all the sabermetric stats on this one a little surprising the betting public has snubbed him at 16/1.
| 10 | WEIRD IMPERSONATOR res: DUR | GB | 4M | foxon2 | J Benisz | 10 | 4 | 70% | $3,083,590 |
DUBAWI (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS x NIJINSKY 2ND ODDS: 17/1
Hasn’t won in the past year where he won B2B at this distance in (GR 1 Irish and Japanese Derby) hence bringing back jock J Benisz who guided him there. Lightly raced for a 4 yr old and has continued that trend as this will mark his 2nd start of his 2024 after a long layoff from March in the Sandcastle Turf (7th) which featured others in here. Learning from the past pace could prove effective as he loves mid pace and stalking style might benefit.
| 11 | COMBINED EFFORT res: ONLY STAYERS | IRE | 5M | tarton22 | F Gossett | 15 | 5 | 73% | $4,818,210 |
GALILEO (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY 2ND ODDS: 6/1
With 4 past 12F races the results have been (2nd,9th ,5th,1st) all GR 1 and against some that are in here today. No M.Kipersoff in the irons which will be a factor but veteran F.Gossett is a solid replacement. We should see a midpack approach here for the lightly raced 5 yr old and should be sharp after a close to 3 month layoff coming off that 2nd where he was closing fast but stayed back too long. With the speed on the inside here, it should benefit him greatly coming out the 11 hole and get closer to the rail sooner.
| 12 | DODGY TOWN res: EWC | AUS | 5G | raceck15 | V Kendall | 19 | 11 | 95% | $327,270 |
WINNING RUPERT (AUS) x AL KAZEEM (GB) x REDOUTE’S CHOICE ODDS: 18/1
Out of little known sire Winning Rupert, but has been a beast with 95% ITM and most at the 12F distance. Coming off a GR 3 win with a different jock but will get reg jock V.Kendall back and look for a solid result. Looks to add to padding stats and earnings on being best horse out of Winning Rupert before career is over. Not bad for a horse that was claimed for 3k after his debut.
| 13 | CONNECT F’ORO res: FLORIDA RACING | KY | 4M | deathgoat2 | L Radzinski | 13 | 3 | 69% | $230,749 |
MEDAGLIA D’ORO x EMPIRE MAKER x NUREYEV ODDS: 13/1
Out of former EOY CONNECT THE SPOTS who was more a dirt specialist but this one loves the turf. Has run at this distance in ALW with ITM success and will be looking to be a pacesetter which could be tough with competition on the rail that also will be vying for it. Look to see a successful 2024 campaign the rest of the way regardless of the result here and jock L Radzinski with his experience could surprise here.
| 14 | DANISH KID res: NORTHWEST RACING | CAN | 6G | hardhead3 | R Williams | 31 | 11 | 58% | $381,633 |
DANISH DYNAFORMER x LEMON DROP KID x BROAD BRUSH ODDS: 29/1
Tied for most wins (11) and also has most starts (31) and picked up off claim for 150k and is now here in the Equinics! So see dreams do come true and so far the best offspring of mare LEMON DROP FAN. The real drawback for him is the PP14 draw as he has never been this far wide and sometimes like to be a frontrunner so will be in tough.
| 15 | LEAKED IMPACT res: ELITE RACING | JPN | 7M | harrylan24 | P Syduck | 20 | 11 | 75% | $961,450 |
DEEP IMPACT x STREET CRY x NIJINSKY 2ND ODDS: 7/1
The oldest horse in the field (7 yr old) but also tied for most wins in the field (11). Has been taking to 12F for the past year more with 2 Graded wins (GR 1& GR 3) and will look to jock P Syduck to bounce back after an 8th place finish in the Sand Castle Turf. Not sure what type of running style will be implemented due to the far PP but has the pedigree to get it done and will look to join the Millionaire’s club.
| 16 | CORNWALLIS res: EMPIRE STATE RACING | IRE | 4M | trotter3 | T Ace | 15 | 6 | 60% | $224,328 |
AUSTRALIA x KING KAMEHAMEHA x SUNDAY SILENCE ODDS: 21/1
Has won 5 AWL races at this distance and a nice 3rd in a recent GR 3. Has won from being far outside from the start so could be a factor as he does have some speed. A scratch bred that will be one to watch even after this race as he will benefit greatly from the experience. Never used before jock T. Ace gets the mount in this one.
Thanks for a great article!