Sim Magic – The Breeders Bowl Preview Part 2

Part 2:

After last weeks look at some of the older Breeders Bowl winners, this week I wanna look at a very special group, the 2yo winners, it’s always a great day to see, who has the best 2yo in late October, but most of the time, those horses tend to see their limits soon after, and run into average 3yo seasons. Since 2002 no Breeders Bowl Juvenile Winner went on to win the Derby, and 2008 was no difference, the 2007 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Winner struggled as a 3yo. But let’s look at it in detail:

The Breeders Bowl Juvenile:

Fleet Daisy won in a nice 93 speed, just nippin out Pyralis and Ghost in a Dancer, he won at odds of 10.5:1, and now a 3yo he stands at:

16 Races – 4 Wins – 1,747,970$

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138321&name=junk&lg=&idno=&authcode=&passcard=09090909090909090909&maxer=true

After the Breeders Bowl win he finished out his 2yo season in a turf try, finishing 4^th in the Grade 2 Phenom Stakes, and that average result in a strange race for a Breeders Bowl Champ showed the way for 2008. Actually the Breeders Bowl Win is his last to date, and it’s fairly unlikely we will see him in any Breeders Bowl race this season. After a 3^rd Place in the Vermont is 4 Lovers he went on to the Florida Derby, a classic Derby Trial, and a 5^th place their likely showed he was no more than average at 9f+. But he went on to compete in the Triple Crown, and a 7^th in the Bluegrass Derby, a 3^rd in the Middle Jewel and a 4^th in the New Yorker was a good result. However who now thought ok, he is getting 12f, let’s keep him there was surprised, how the next races went. The Smackdown Mile brought a 10^th place finish, and a try on Turf in the Big Red Stakes with an 8^th place showed, what he didn’t like. Finally, more than three months after the New Yorker, he at least was in a 10f race on dirt, and showed his lifetime high, a 114 for a 3^rd place in the LA Derby. The way his owner handled him, it would be no sursprise to see him in a Sprint soon, but I really hope he’ll get the chance to unleash his qualities in a 11-12f race on dirt soon. He sure has the capibility of seeing the winners circle again, but it will take a much better placement than in the last year.

The Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly:

Ten Year Storm showed her class with a 94, she held off Dream Cat and Sage Royale, her odds 9.5:1, now a 3yo she stands at:

14 Races – 7 Wins – 1,573,265$

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=133924&name=junk&lg=&idno=&authcode=&passcard=09090909090909090909&maxer=true

Winning the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly was kind of like reaching a super target for the 2yo Silver Deputy Filly, she then went on a long break, and it took 3 months for her to return as a 3yo in Pennsylvania, where she won a Stakes race over 8.5f, her owner then sent her on the Oaks Trials, but she flopped in the Vermont is 4 Lovers finishing 7^th, and a 4^th place in the We get Signal Stakes pointed to her not really being ready for the Bluegrass Oaks, but she went there nevertheless. And the Bluegrass Day was really disappointing, she never found a click in the race, and finished 13^th. She was then moved to turf, but  just like her male counterpart, she ran a poor 83, and finished 4^th in a Grade 3. After an 8^th place in a Stakes race in June, it was obvious she had lost her speed, or better to say stopped maturing. Her way went back to ALW races, and wonder oh wonder she found a 104 to win in July, and a 108 in September to finish 2^nd in a 8.5f ALW. Her speeds seems back at Stakes Level, and it seems only a question of time, when she’ll be back in the winners circle, not all hope is lost for her 4yo career.

The Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf:

Buck’s Party won with a 93 ahead of Woette’s Slipper and Kepler Tokyo, he won at 9.1:1 odds and now a 3yo stands at:

13 Races – 5 Wins – 947,872$

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=136639&name=junk&lg=&idno=&authcode=&passcard=09090909090909090909&maxer=true

As it is still a realistic target for a dirt Juvenile winner to aim at the Bluegrass Derby, it is more likely for a Juvenile Turf Winner to go after the Guineas, rather than the Derby d’English, and so 2007 winner Buck’s Party made no difference, after the Breeders Bowl win he took a break until he was 3yrs old, and returned in Ungraded Stakes Races, winning 2 at 8f and finishing 2^nd in a 6.5 event. Afterwards came his big day, the 2000 Guineas, and he came close, he lead the whole race, but in the end being denied by 2 lengths off Yasutora, who left him standing and flew by him in the final furlong. And that defeat seemed to take his morale, he finished 6^th in the St. James Tavern, to go down to ALW racing afterwards, and loose in heavy fashion finishing 7^th and 3^rd in average ALW races. It has to be seen if he can make his mark back into the Stakes Racing circuit, at the moment his career looks down and likely the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf win will be his highlight.

The Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly:

Miesque’s Gold won with a 94 just by a head in front of High Motions and back in 3^rd was Single White Pat. Her odds 13.8:1, so a huge outside shot, now she stand at:

17 Races – 4 Wins – 1,764, 892$

 http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=19819&name=junk&lg=&idno=&authcode=&passcard=09090909090909090909&maxer=true

She seemed to handle the pressure of a Breeders Bowl Winner pretty well, and established herself in Graded Racing, finishing 2^nd in the Silver Spoon Juvenile, and then stormed into 2008 by winning the Panhandle Oaks and the Loaded Charger Special, a Grade 1 in Germany, but after that the flights from the States to Honkong and Germany seemed to take their tribute. She was 3^rd and 2^nd in two more Grade 1’s and went into the Sidney Oaks, at 12f this seemed a monstrous challenge, and she found out it really was, she finished 8^th, and it was clear she was more a m,iler type of horse. A 7^th in the Cremenation Stakes was followed by a 5^th in Pioneer Boulevard Cup, and it was obvious, her owner drove her from race to race, hardly giving the filly a break, but she seemed not done yet, a 2^nd in the Equinics, a 3^rd and a 2^nd in two more 9f Grade 1 Turf races showed she was still there, running near her best every race, but simply not gettin the winners circle. Now early October she was back at 12f, and I’d like to scream: DON’T DO IT. She is a 8-9f horse, and one of the best fillies at that distance, obviously she finished 8^th in the 12f Grade 1. I hope she will get back at it perhaps in a mile race on the lawn, to finally give her another win, as she hasn’t won since January, and hey, a break might do her good.

As you can see, if you have a Breeders Bowl juvenile Winner, celebrate it like crazy, but expact to be celebrating less often, when he is a 3yo, it’s a tough progression, and some simply stop maturing, while others take till the later stages of the year for coming back to being competitive. So if you have the chance to get one of your 2yos into the Breeders Bowl, I wish you good luck, but if they are still a step behind, they may catch up till Derby time.