Too Close to Call in Italy
Welcome to Italy for the 8th running of the Premium Jockey Guild Stakes, a grade 3 event for horses 3 years old and up. Today we have 9 horse going for the win and their share in the $150,000 purse going 9 furlongs on the firm turf. Most of the horses in today’s field are 4 and 5 year olds, but we do have one 6 year old who could be crowned the winner. Before we look ahead, let’s look back at the history of the race.
The record for the Premium Jockey Guild Stakes is held by the 2003 winner, Rockland, trained by czarina. He was retired last year after winning 3 graded races, finishing in the money 5 times and bringing home well over $1 million for his connections. He ran the 9 furlongs in 1:48 3/5. All but 3 horses in the field have posted higher than Rockland’s 110, so we could definitely see a new record holder at the end of the day.
Most of the previous winners have come off either a win in a graded or listed stakes or a very strong showing. We only have two horses in the field that have done that, Thick and Thin and Draco, two of the horses tied for second choice. Also, this race has only been won by a horse who didn’t already have a graded victory twice. There are only two horses in the field who meet that criteria, Draco and Artificial Crisis.
Let’s take a look at the field.
PP 1 BARCABAA (KY) (ANABAA x DAMASCUS x HABITAT) bred by xssessiv and trained by whizzo (B4rca Stables, 8%) Odds: 11 to 1
Out of post position one and wearing blue and red silks is Barcabaa representing B4rca stables and RASH. He is a 4 year old son of Anabaa who typically produces turf sprinters, but since his trainer switched him to dirt he has won 30% of his races and finished itm 60% of the time. He is a stakes winner and is coming off a third place finish in an overnight stakes, but he hasn’t had success when he has tried to move up in class to graded races. He last tried graded stakes late in July and it might have been August by the time he crossed the finish line. He had a long rest and came back with a 105 his last time out. He tends to run just off the pace and this field has a lot of late speed, so a great start out of the gates would really help Barcabaa’s chances.
PP 2 DARKEST HOUR (AUS) (FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x RAINBOW QUEST x KINGMAMBO) bred and trained by earthsong (Next Bonus Racing, 15%) Odds: 13 to 1
Darkest Hour from Next Bonus Racing and Great Plains residency has a lot in common with Barcabaa in pp1. They have both had a lot of success in allowance races, but have had a hard time against graded company. Last out for Darkest Hour was at the G1-Maudlin Cup at the end of September. And like the horse next to him, he had a miserable time of it, finishing last with a sp of 32. It has been over 2 months since then and he is coming back from the lay off with another try against graded company. Darkest Hour is a son of Fastnet Rock, only in his 4th year as a sire and he only has one graded winner to date. Darkest Hour will have a lot to overcome to make that 2 graded winners for Fastnet Rock here.
PP 3 SIMPLY SMASHING (IRE) (EL PRADO (IRE) x STAGE DOOR JOHNNY x LE FABULEUX) bred by testcase1 and trained by wtas10 (Wtas10 Stables, 15%) Odds: 7 to 1
After winning only 3 races in 17 tries for testcase1, wtas pickedhim up for $25,000 in a claiming race. Since changing stables Simply Smashing has won six times and has shown dramatic improvement when his new trainer raced him in routes instead of sprints. He is making his graded debut here. In early July this son of El Prado won his first and only stakes with his career high speed of 108. Not only to we have a class question with this horse, he also has never run this distance. He has won at both 8 ½ and 9 ½, but this will be his first try at 9.
PP 4 BENIDIGO (GONE WEST x SPINNING WORLD x RED RANSOM) bred and trained by cuprunners (Tulloch Stables, 11%) Odds: 9 to 2
Benidigo is coming off a career high speed last time out the G1-Canada Mile where he put up a 113 in his 4th place finish. This scratch bred son of Gone West has been racing in this class since last spring and he hasn’t won a graded race yet, but it looks like today that might change. His best finish against graded company came in June at the G1- The Prince of Wells where he finished 2nd. Since then he had a almost two months off. He is tied for the highest career high speed in the race and that was in his last race, so he if can do something similar here he definitely has a good shot at the winner’s circle. He is the first of three horses in the field the oddmakers put at second.
PP 5 DRACO (SADLER’S WELL x A.P. INDY x UNBRIDLED) bred by tesio and trained by spqr (SPQR Stables, 17%) Odds: 9 to 2
Draco is a 5 year old scratch bred son of Sadler’s Wells. He is coming off a win in a listed stakes at this distance. He is the only horse in the field to be coming into this race off a win. Like so many other horses in the field Draco has been successful in allowance races, but hasn’t been able to put it all together against graded company. He does have the recent stakes win, which a few other horses in the field don’t have. Like Benidigo next to him, he is a late runner, so an early speed dual would be to his advantage. He also has the top jockey for Italy, Lebreche. He is also the only jockey to have multiple wins in this race.
PP 6 BEN (COZZENE x BLACK TIE AFFAIR (IRE) x BUCKSPLASHER) bred by mia and trained by stallanden (Stal Landen vzw,10%) Odds: 9 to 1
Ben is sandwiched between the 5 horses that the oddsmakers gave the best odds on. He is making his graded debut here and has only tried stakes once before. That race was two tries ago in August at this same distance and this son of Cozzene finished 6th. About a year ago Ben was claimed from Mia and Ben’s Acres for $100,000. Since then she has only finished out of the money 3 times, once was on an off track and the other was his first attempted at stakes. Ben’s career high speed of 108 was at this distance.
PP 7 ARTIFICIAL CRISIS (MACHIAVELLIAN x SILVER HAWK x PLEASANT COLONY) bred and trained by nowitsdark (Psychloan Stables, 11%) Odds: 4 to 1
While there are three horses tied for second favorite, Artificial Crisis holds the title of favorite all by himself. He is also one of only two horses in the field to have proven himself in this class. This 6 year old son of Machiavellian has been running in graded stakes exclusively for over two years. He hasn’t put up a speed factor under the triple digit mark in well over a year. He only won once and finished in the money twice, but both those times were also in G3, as opposed to the G1s and G2s he had been running in.
PP 8 THICK AND THIN (JPN) (FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW x ALYDAR) bred and trained by sdmf9 (Black Label Stables, 18%) Odds: 9 to 2
Thick and Thin is the third horse in the field with odds of 9 to 2. This 4 year old scratch bred son of Forty Niner is making only his second career start on the grass. He has been brining in the bps and cash for the Black Label Stables, finishing in the money on the dirt 5 out of his last 7 races, but he hasn’t won since February and sdmf9 is looking for the win. His first try on turf was a third place finish in an allowance race with a speed factor similar to what he had been doing on the dirt. If he is able to put up a similar speed to his last time out, a 113, he could definitely be in the mix here. It would not be a stretch for him to like the turf, he has won 50% of his races on good or sloppy tracks.
PP 9 ELUFLY’S GOLDIE (ELUSIVE QUALITY x SEEKING THE GOLD x DANZIG) bred and trained by shazfly (Brundlefly Stables, 12%) Odds: 5 to 1
Last we have Elufly’s Goldie out of post position 9. This 5 year old son of Elusive Quality got most of his wins in his third year and early in his fourth year. In fact he has only won once since February of his 4th year. He has been racing in graded company and has had some races where he has come close. He is still competitive, finishing in the money in 5 of his 9 races this year. His career high speed of 112, close to the highest in the field, came at this distance.