Let The Good Times Handicap Roll
Where have all the horses gone is exactly what the Dubai racing officials are asking as the Grade II Good Times Handicap has attracted its smallest field in its nine year history. Only six fillies and mares will be chasing the $225,000 purse over the eight furlong race.
With few graded stakes offered worldwide this weekend, the small field is especially disappointing. The quality of the field is not disappointing, however. Half the field is ranked in the top thirty in the division and includes the convincing winner of the Grade II East Coast Mile.
It’s difficult to find historical insight from past winners. They have had every possible running style and odds as short as 3-2 and as long as 20-1. One surprising coincidence is that no previous winner ever finished in the money in a graded stakes in her race preceding the Good Times.
The stakes record of
Here is a look at the current field:
PP 1 CLOUT(KY) (STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD x ALYDAR) bred and trained by lasthope (Dixiedotco Racing, 27%) Odds: 3-1, Style: S
Over 80% of Clout’s winnings have come on off tracks, and one of the highest percentage trainers in the game ships to the desert in a futile hope for rain. Since turning three, the filly’s record on wet dirt tracks is four wins and a second in five starts. And the wins have been impressive – she’s earned her four highest speed figures in the slop, and her wins have included the Grade I Bumblebee four months ago. She’s won enough to be the number five ranked older filly in the world.
It’s not that she’s a slouch on a dry track. In her ten dirt races on fast tracks, she has three wins and a pair of triple-digit races. Her best fast dirt race came last time, when she was second in the Grade II East Coast Mile against a much stronger field than this. The only problem with that race is that she again gets to face its winner, the favorite in this race. Jockey Casell three of the first four Good Times.
PP 2 MARFA SUN ONE(IRE) (DAYLAMI (IRE) x EL PRADO(IRE) x MARFA) bred by sal959, trained by bartfarg3 (Bartfarg Stables, 13%) Odds: 6-1, Style: P
Barn made an astute claim long ago of this mare when she was making just her second start and was dropped for a tag. That one race however, has stained her record so that her name has since been followed by the “claimer” label. The barn would so much like to replace that with “stakeswinner,” or much better, by “graded winner.” The good news is that while many horses show rapid decline after their 30th race, she’s never run better.
The bad news is that she’s tried stakes four times before and has never finished within seven lengths of the winner. Probably the worst news is that she’s seeking her first stakes win after 32 career starts. You can’t help but notice her pattern from late last year. She had a streak of three allowance wins in four starts, her last two with speed figures over 100. They put her in an overnight, and she ran a poor race. She enters today off a win and two seconds in her past three allowance races, the last two with speed figures over 100. So they try a graded stakes. At least this time she stays at the eight furlong distance.
PP 3 TIZ A CIGAR(IRE) (ALZAO x TIZNOW x CIGAR) bred by alwysanfvr, trained by riotmagic (Houseriot Stables, 21%) Odds: 8-1, Style: E/P
Cigar? I want a horse from Cigar. Maybe not. Tiz A Cigar’s dam had one win in 50 starts.
This is a bold training move. This oft-claimed filly has been in the money in 16 of her 25 starts but is still eligible n2x allowances. In fact those were the conditions she was running for a $20,000 tag last time when her current connections claimed her. While prior winners of the Good Times that won their prep race are rare, none has come from a claiming race.
Let’s say something good. Her last race was around two turns. That was her first dirt route since her two-year-old campaign, and she ran away from a large field. There is little early speed in this field, and she can get the early lead if she wants it. Two previous winners have gone wire to wire.
PP 4 SEEKING DEATH (SEEKING THE GOLD x LYPHARD x NEVER SAY DIE), bred and trained by lenny28 (The Evil Empire – You Have No Idea, 25%) Odds: 2-1, Style: S
I like to look at patterns and trends. As I mentioned a couple times, no previous winner of the Good Times ever entered off a graded win. That’s the stupidest angle anyone ever heard of. Her win in the East Coast Mile was impressive and over a much stronger and larger field than this. Some horses have severe distance limitations. Seeking Death is one of them. She’s gone nine furlongs or longer four times, losing them by an average of nearly ten lengths a race. In her last six races on fast dirt tracks at eight or eight-and-a-half furlongs, she has six wins. Oh, and her jockey is winning at a 27% clip this year.
I hate to pick a favorite, so let’s say something bad. She ran once before in
PP 5 TEFERI’S REALM(KY) (WAR CHANT x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by mav1762 (Deadinthelane Stables, 17%) Odds: 3-1, Style: P
She ran an uncharacteristic clunker last time in the Grade I Superfilly. Her past performances look eerily like many past Good Times winners. The question that needs to be answered is if her form peaked in June and she’s still on the decline, or if she’s ready to rebound. Last autumn may provide insight. After getting her first stakes win with a nice speed figure, she ran two slow races only to come back fast again. In August, she got her first graded win and followed that with two relatively poor races. If the horse and trainer pattern hold she should be ready for a good effort today.
It’s tough, from a handicapping perspective, to get over a tenth place finish, but again, here’s the history of this race. In 2005, Vanguard won off a 9th in a Grade I stakes. In 2004, Gingivitis won off a 6th in a Grade II. In 2003, Misty Woodbine won off a 10th in an overnight.
Teferi, in case you don’t know, was a mage of Zhalfir. Thank you, Wikipedia.
PP 6 IMPOSSIBLE GIRL (FORTY NINER x SADLER’S WELLS x GRAUSTARK) bred and trained by minnslew (Timmn Stables, 10%) Odds: 4-1, Style: E/P
Terrible horse. Terrible trainer. This nag hasn’t been competitive at this level in over a year. She takes an inexplicable rise in class off the worst race she has run ever. The only reason she won’t pick up her third straight
By the way, I signed up for this race write-up long before this horse was entered.
Conclusion:
It’s a bad day when I have to go with chalk, and today is a bad day. Seeking Death / Teferi’s Realm / Clout.