Trying to Take the Next Step Stakes

Trying to Take the Next Step Stakes – Grade 3

Nine furlongs on the dirt, fast track, all horses three and up

Fourteen horses contest a G3 stakes

A full field of fourteen colts and horses – no fillies or mares – will
contest the “Trying to Take the Next Step Stakes” on Saturday, September
27, 2008. Three of the entrants – Random Phyl, Border Strike, and
Sunday’s Rule) recently competed in the George W. Loser Stakes (G1),
finishing sixth, seventh, and eighth respectively.

1) Strong Coffee 40 9-11-7 $203,790

Strong Coffee has run 100 or better in five of his last eight races. His
second race back was an ungraded stakes in which he finished second;
He’d been unplaced in five other stakes. He’s only had one win in the
last year, his third race back, in fifteen races. His jockey has a 14%
win record.

2) Symondite 11 5-1-0 $88,843

Symondite has only five 100+ speed figures in his last eight starts,
but, with only eleven starts, least in the field, he may just be hitting
his stride. His last race was a stakes and he led at the first two
calls, just nosed out at the third, but then stopped and finished ninth.
He was unplaced in his only other stakes run but has won at nine
furlong. However, he may prefer shorter races.

3) Horatio Nelson 19 6-6-4 $702,530

Horatio Nelson has exceeded 100 in all of his last eight races, running
in seven stakes (1-1-3) though his last win was in May, in a G3 race. He
has placed in a G1. His stakes total is 13 races, three ungraded wins.
His last two wins were at 8.5 furlongs, though he still tops a 100 speed
figure at 10 furlongs.

4) Adrammlech 15 4-5-1 $707,060

Adrammlech has the least speed figures over 100 – only three of his last
eight races. Like Symondite, this may be a reflection of his number of
starts rather than his capability next year at four. His last three
races were stakes. His relatively poor speed figure in his last race
could indicate that he came back groggy or worse because he wan a G1
race – at nine furlongs – just before that. Four of his last five races
have been stakes; he was unplaced in three of them.

5) Otto Allegheny 20 5-3-6 $199,331

Otto Allegheny has seven 100+ speed figures in his last eight races, all
of which have been ungraded stakes (2-1-1). In addition, he was unplaced
in a G2 at 2. Most of his wins have been sprinting, but he has won a
“slow” allowance at 9 furlongs. He does well on an off track which he
won’t have in this race.

He has one of the less effective jockeys (5%).

6) Ransom Phyl 34 7-8-2 $149,318

Ransom Phyl has four of his last eight at 100+. Six of his last eight
races have been stakes with a single ungraded placement; he’s been in
six other stakes races. His last win was a moderate allowance. He has,
by a fairly modest margin, the lowest earnings per race in this field.

7) Pet Volley 23 7-4-4 $201,263

While Pet Volley has 100+ figures in six of his last eight races, his
only stakes was a G1 in his last race which was at 10 furlongs and in
which he faded to fifth. He won the previous race, an allowance at 8.5
furlongs.

He has one of the least effective jockeys (4%).

8) Border Strike 30 5-4-3 $143,363

Border Strike has posted 100+ figures in six of his last eight races.
Seven of his last eight have been stakes, with only a single third
place; he has also been in two other stakes, both times unplaced. His
last win was a 9 furlong allowance in April.

He has the least effective jockey in the race (3%).

9) A Vow to be a Slew 22 6-3-3 $1,310,936

A Vow to be a Slew has seven 100+ figures in his last eight races, all
of which have been stakes (1-0-1). The win was in an ungraded stakes at
10 furlongs. His last 13 races have been stakes (3-2-1) and he has run
in three other stakes including a win at 10 furlongs in an ungraded
stakes. Most of his stakes races have been graded at 9 to 12 furlongs.

His earning are a bit deceptive because $900,000 of it came in three
wins in $500,000 restricted stakes. Re-calculating his earnings per race
without those three races drops his earning per race to third in the
field, about half the figure of the two top earners.

His jockey has a significantly higher win rate (29%) than any other in
the field.

10) Student of Eros 26 6-10-3 $250,540

Student of Eros has topped 100 in seven of his last eight races all of
which have been stakes, ungraded to G1 (0-4-2) and including a G1
placement. He’s been in 13 stakes, most at 10 to 12 furlongs, 11
straight. He won an ungraded stakes in January.

11) Silver and Black 15 6-3-3 $97,806

Silver and Black has exceeded 100 speed points in all of his last eight
races. He’s been in two stakes and won the last, an ungraded stakes. He
has won an allowance at 9 furlongs but his last 11 races have been 8 to
8.5 furlongs.

12) Sunday’s Rule 36 14-3-5 $764,201

Sunday’s Rule has raced 100 points or more in 7 of his last 8 races, but
his last race was 93. In six recent stakes he has compiled a 2-1-0
record and won a G2 at 9 furlongs. He’s been in 10 other stakes to G1
and mostly runs at 9 furlongs.

13) Composition 14 3-3-2 $76,959

Composition has exceeded 100 in his last eight races, including 3
ungraded (0-1-1) stakes. He’s run in no other stakes, hasn’t won at 9
furlongs, and hasn’t run longer.

14) Witch Trials 22 6-7-3 $199,553

Witch Trials has run 100 or more in seven of his last eight races. His
last was an 82 in a G2 at 10 furlongs which could be either excessive
distance or coming out of the race groggy or worse. His last five races
have been stakes (3-0-0), all at 9 or 9.5 furlongs, including two on an
off track where he does well (5 3-2-0) and which has produced just over
half his earnings. He’s run in no other stakes but 11 of his races were
MSWs.

Unfortunately, he has one of the least effective jockeys (6% wins).